Unsteady-Rice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.25K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.04K

Hit rate

96.1%

Resolved

Trades

565

lifetime

Volume

$160.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$284

Open exposure

$19.1K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-08 17:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

76% 62% +$1,283

Crypto

24% 47% +$6,970

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	+9,000	$7,564	92¢	$8.2K	+$670	08-24 11:09
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+2,500	$565	82¢	$2.0K	+$1,472	06-02 23:36
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+1,832	$1,469	73¢	$1.3K	-$127	09-23 09:10
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+2,750	$1,908	44¢	$1.2K	-$698	08-29 14:21
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	+1,000	$875	97¢	$966	+$92	09-06 19:35
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+1,000	$615	94¢	$935	+$320	05-14 17:40
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+1,000	$260	88¢	$880	+$620	05-20 22:24
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	+1,000	$160	83¢	$830	+$670	05-14 17:39
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$490	77¢	$770	+$280	06-03 00:08
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+2,875	$1,795	26¢	$762	-$1,034	07-18 09:53
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-500	-$420	94¢	$-468	-$48	07-18 10:02
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$399	23¢	$225	-$173	08-07 10:35
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+1,398	$432	13¢	$182	-$250	07-18 09:52
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$102	6¢	$92	-$10	09-22 12:24
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,500	$250	3¢	$84	-$166	06-03 01:11
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+847	$13	2¢	$14	+$1	06-03 09:34
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+115	$75	11¢	$13	-$62	10-08 16:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	+3,500	$530	0¢	$12	-$518	10-08 17:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	59	$65.7K	66,250	0	+66,250	Yes	+$590	01-26 19:36
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	64	$24.9K	25,000	0	+25,000	Yes	+$125	01-29 18:13
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	47	$11.2K	17,612	0	+17,612	Yes	+$144	01-15 18:05
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	28	$7.6K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	08-24 11:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$5.7K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	06-02 23:24
bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$10	01-21 11:45
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	75	$4.0K	15,000	10,000	+5,000	No	+$6,350	02-06 21:15
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	28	$3.3K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$450	02-07 21:46
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	11	$3.1K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	No	+$2,026	02-07 23:17
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$2.8K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	09-06 19:35
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	5	$2.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$36	05-21 09:55
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	9	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$14	06-03 02:22
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale?	1	$1.9K	1,950	0	+1,950	No	+$10	05-14 23:52
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	6	$1.9K	2,750	0	+2,750	open	—	08-29 14:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-10 12:52
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	4	$1.8K	2,875	0	+2,875	open	—	07-18 09:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	15	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$80	05-29 10:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$1.6K	72,429	1,000	+71,429	No	-$1,038	06-02 08:01
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	23	$1.5K	1,832	0	+1,832	open	—	09-23 09:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$10	05-14 18:58
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$870	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-20 22:25
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$615	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-14 17:40
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$565	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	06-02 23:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	7	$530	3,500	0	+3,500	open	—	10-08 17:02
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	2	$498	2,500	1,000	+1,500	open	—	09-22 12:24
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	1	$490	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-03 00:08
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$432	1,398	0	+1,398	open	—	07-18 09:52
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$420	0	500	-500	open	—	07-18 10:02
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	1	$399	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	08-07 10:35
saturn fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260623191424368	2	$395	925	0	+925	open	—	08-06 22:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 17:02:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,991	16¢	$319	0xf4fff9…
10-08 16:40:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xf945e3…
10-08 16:40:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x931593…
10-08 16:32:47	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0xab994d…
10-08 16:24:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xf8cc23…
10-08 16:23:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	116	14¢	$16	0x189df0…
10-08 16:16:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xc12fee…
10-08 16:08:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,179	14¢	$165	0x669239…
10-08 16:06:11	Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	464	72¢	$334	0x5cc3c7…
10-08 16:05:45	Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	165	81¢	$134	0x4b2378…
10-08 16:04:29	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	65¢	$36	0xedef45…
09-23 09:10:25	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	240	68¢	$163	0x685391…
09-22 12:24:27	Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	20¢	$198	0xa7b847…
09-22 11:26:27	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	43	68¢	$29	0x5e018a…
09-22 10:34:52	Will QFEX launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x882fb4…
09-22 10:14:00	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x10c2b2…
09-22 10:06:16	QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	278	45¢	$126	0xd4e6c1…
09-22 09:58:10	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0xfaf003…
09-10 12:52:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	97¢	$969	0x3e9314…
09-06 19:37:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	4,936	5¢	$250	0xeaff78…
09-06 19:37:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,778	9¢	$250	0x89f3c3…
09-06 19:35:43	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$955	0xdddecd…
08-29 14:21:58	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	643	80¢	$514	0x692090…
08-29 14:21:19	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	660	53¢	$350	0x9148f9…
08-24 11:09:39	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	287	82¢	$235	0x00ebe6…
08-24 11:07:58	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	713	82¢	$585	0x61cd05…
08-21 10:18:45	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x03c7a4…
08-21 09:17:55	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	414	83¢	$344	0xf23d68…
08-21 09:15:39	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	295	85¢	$250	0x45128f…
08-20 13:29:34	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	227	85¢	$193	0xda8b41…
08-20 13:25:04	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x75a93c…
08-20 13:24:42	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xd5f5b4…
08-20 12:21:18	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	85¢	$31	0x32aac9…
08-19 15:27:22	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$99	0x489f1c…
08-12 13:24:43	will saturn launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xc52329…
08-12 09:15:03	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	168	85¢	$143	0xde9839…
08-12 08:52:16	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0xac637d…
08-11 15:54:21	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	42	85¢	$36	0x1ce639…
08-11 15:30:01	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	85¢	$19	0x6ac3a7…
08-11 06:37:01	will saturn launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xd2fd75…
08-11 06:37:01	will saturn launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	28	22¢	$6	0x707bff…
08-11 06:37:01	will saturn launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x1379b0…
08-11 06:37:00	will saturn launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0xb7b0b1…
08-11 00:28:55	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0x7d6619…
08-11 00:28:54	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	79	85¢	$67	0xb159ad…
08-11 00:27:40	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	85¢	$25	0xf1764b…
08-11 00:27:37	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	58	85¢	$49	0xa94418…
08-11 00:27:24	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0xd5ddef…
08-10 22:38:06	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	38	85¢	$32	0x9e331e…
08-10 06:27:58	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	43	85¢	$36	0xe6c59e…
08-09 16:10:33	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x1c7a90…
08-09 16:04:04	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x777d1b…
08-09 15:46:21	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xff21d4…
08-09 14:18:55	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	38	85¢	$32	0x86a168…
08-09 03:13:09	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0x87ca63…
08-08 02:59:27	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0x88d6a6…
08-07 14:47:31	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x299fb4…
08-07 10:35:46	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	40¢	$399	0xc29320…
08-06 22:07:45	saturn fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260623191424369	No	BUY	148	68¢	$100	0x622039…
08-06 22:07:18	saturn fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260623191424368	No	BUY	470	45¢	$211	0x247e0b…
08-06 22:03:39	saturn fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260623191424368	No	BUY	455	40¢	$184	0x33a63c…
08-06 22:03:14	saturn fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260623191424369	No	BUY	48	67¢	$32	0x91aa95…
08-06 22:02:56	saturn fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260623191424369	No	BUY	22	64¢	$14	0x05e082…
08-06 22:00:56	saturn fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260623191424367	No	BUY	103	28¢	$29	0xe63df9…
08-06 10:13:11	Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0xbe9980…
08-06 10:12:47	Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x7c1a43…
08-06 10:12:08	Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xe60a20…
07-18 10:03:55	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	88¢	$1,757	0xf48438…
07-18 10:02:13	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	84¢	$420	0x117e34…
07-18 09:54:19	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	340	70¢	$238	0x841bad…
07-18 09:53:24	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,499	61¢	$921	0x0c7a37…
07-18 09:52:52	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	28¢	$280	0xdbe52b…
06-05 08:12:22	Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	4¢	$90	0xabeaa2…
06-04 02:06:51	Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,900	4¢	$68	0xfcf788…
06-03 09:34:31	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	847	2¢	$13	0xcd9f31…
06-03 04:34:35	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x1e4063…
06-03 02:22:51	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	631	99¢	$627	0xcbe3c6…
06-03 02:11:02	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	171	75¢	$128	0x68d5b1…
06-03 01:12:54	Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	12¢	$300	0x9d18b2…
06-03 01:11:44	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	10¢	$250	0x6658bc…
06-03 00:56:43	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1a8c05…
06-03 00:47:37	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	360	99¢	$358	0x7ecaf0…
06-03 00:08:04	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0x4b83ad…
06-02 23:53:18	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x280ecc…
06-02 23:48:10	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1d3346…
06-02 23:47:06	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x28acf3…
06-02 23:45:45	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x88ea5b…
06-02 23:38:31	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,070	84¢	$899	0x232ac2…
06-02 23:36:37	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,500	23¢	$565	0x41ac74…
06-02 23:36:06	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0c2980…
06-02 23:33:37	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	829	75¢	$622	0x3f8c35…
06-02 23:32:45	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	61¢	$305	0x74a6d8…
06-02 23:28:24	Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,100	4¢	$130	0xaac42c…
06-02 23:24:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	64¢	$3,210	0x064a94…
06-02 08:01:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71,429	1¢	$500	0x7f509b…
06-01 13:06:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	27¢	$272	0xb9c43d…
05-30 11:01:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	177	81¢	$144	0x457e90…
05-30 10:23:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x934a05…
05-30 10:20:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0xfe334d…
05-30 10:06:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x2591ee…