Realized P&L
-$79
Unrealized P&L
-$590
Hit rate
52.7%
Resolved
45
Trades
946
lifetime
Volume
$39.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$42
Open exposure
$3.32K
11 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 05:19
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 15 days
Categories
Politics
56% 42% +$371
Other
44% 39% -$449
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes +33,026 $2,744 6¢ $2.0K -$763 10-26 05:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +1,140 $636 94¢ $1.1K +$435 10-16 04:04
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +575 $59 16¢ $95 +$36 10-10 01:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +323 $100 22¢ $69 -$31 10-02 13:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes +167 $55 34¢ $58 +$3 10-21 12:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes +50 $28 52¢ $26 -$1 10-24 13:58
Macron out by December 31, 2026? Yes +328 -$6 4¢ $12 +$18 10-24 21:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +100 $4 1¢ $1 -$3 09-16 17:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +167 $2 0¢ $1 -$1 09-16 16:39
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +33 $5 1¢ $0 -$5 09-09 14:28
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +0 $278 6¢ $0 -$278 10-25 23:09