Mixed-Skin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

17.9%

Resolved

Trades

388

lifetime

Volume

$9.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$60

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 06-09 06:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

39% 100% +$0

Other

35% 0% $-2

Politics

11% 0% —

Sports

9% — —

Tech

5% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+66	$30	46¢	$30	+$0	06-08 10:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No		+30	$29	98¢	$30	+$0	06-05 09:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on january 28 2026	3	$256	200	100	+100	open	—	01-28 12:18
spx opens up or down on january 27 2026	3	$253	200	100	+100	open	—	01-27 12:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	5	$233	122	122	+0	open	—	04-17 05:19
bitcoin above 72k on april 19	3	$219	110	110	+0	open	—	04-19 11:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	7	$201	169	169	+0	open	—	06-02 08:46
nba den uta 2026 04 01	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 03:19
mlb hou oak 2026 04 03	3	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-04 04:06
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-06 15:23
bitcoin above 64k on march 27	5	$175	89	89	+0	open	—	03-27 11:13
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$174	200	200	+0	open	—	01-27 10:24
bitcoin above 74k on april 24	7	$159	80	80	+0	open	—	04-24 14:10
ethereum above 1900 on march 30	3	$159	80	80	+0	open	—	03-30 14:16
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	5	$138	70	70	+0	open	—	04-01 11:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$128	65	65	+0	open	—	04-08 05:37
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	5	$127	66	66	+0	open	—	04-22 09:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$118	200	200	+0	open	—	01-25 13:37
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$114	105	105	+0	open	—	06-01 12:31
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$113	60	60	+0	open	—	02-16 14:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$113	60	60	+0	open	—	05-24 05:12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$110	60	60	+0	open	—	04-09 06:24
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 380 399	2	$106	100	100	+0	open	—	01-27 11:40
will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	6	$105	56	56	+0	open	—	03-23 10:54
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27?	2	$104	52	52	+0	open	—	04-26 23:28
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$104	52	52	+0	open	—	05-01 05:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	04-29 13:18
btc updown 15m 1774355400	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	03-24 12:44
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	03-31 13:49
Wild vs. Avalanche	2	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	05-04 03:40
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve on january 30 2026	2	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	01-30 06:11
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$94	200	200	+0	open	—	01-25 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 06:24:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xd410a4…
06-08 10:35:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	66	45¢	$30	0x139079…
06-05 09:33:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x231089…
06-04 03:05:37	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x4650be…
06-02 14:12:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	40	84¢	$33	0x5b975b…
06-02 09:26:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xbcb926…
06-02 09:26:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x5ae483…
06-02 09:26:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xc851f7…
06-02 08:46:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	89	46¢	$41	0x036a1a…
06-02 07:18:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	89	63¢	$56	0x780258…
06-02 07:08:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0xb5c7fa…
06-02 07:02:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0xd82440…
06-02 07:00:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x73961b…
06-02 06:59:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0xe7a4e4…
06-02 04:08:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	80	82¢	$65	0x166977…
06-01 14:35:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x415b68…
06-01 14:34:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb998dc…
06-01 14:34:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x685690…
06-01 12:31:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	25¢	$26	0xe566a9…
05-30 07:19:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdfa5d4…
05-29 07:48:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x2d8f7a…
05-29 07:47:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xa0b35e…
05-29 07:47:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x110855…
05-28 05:17:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xc6f45c…
05-28 04:42:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x61f175…
05-28 03:11:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x0522d5…
05-27 20:48:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x288bdf…
05-24 05:12:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	58	90¢	$52	0xdf3d06…
05-24 05:09:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xd9e44f…
05-23 09:51:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xd9edaa…
05-19 07:31:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$17	0xd3871d…
05-19 07:25:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x48a8ff…
05-14 05:53:22	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x5954d5…
05-12 03:00:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2ea1eb…
05-06 06:05:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xde94df…
05-05 06:23:50	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	60	30¢	$18	0x282ff4…
05-05 05:59:24	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0xe10a0b…
05-05 05:47:04	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0xdd901f…
05-04 03:40:12	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x11b12c…
05-04 03:39:40	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xe7d50f…
05-01 05:13:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xc6f58e…
04-29 13:18:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x80e3a7…
04-29 05:37:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0f0f57…
04-28 10:36:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0x68d446…
04-28 10:10:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0xba8196…
04-28 10:10:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x7bc6c9…
04-27 06:33:58	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	58	97¢	$56	0x9bf929…
04-26 23:28:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x3f575c…
04-26 03:51:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x31ea0f…
04-25 10:33:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x59309e…
04-24 23:40:34	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x0e1d08…
04-24 23:36:28	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x00895b…
04-24 14:10:08	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x481a16…
04-24 05:23:44	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x6027b6…
04-24 05:22:44	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x4c083e…
04-24 05:17:18	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xa836af…
04-24 05:10:14	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xa02e02…
04-24 05:10:14	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x318479…
04-24 04:57:36	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x134ff5…
04-23 11:55:56	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x745c55…
04-22 14:40:54	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 90 114	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x70c069…
04-22 09:58:56	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x4e5b4d…
04-22 09:57:28	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xdf924b…
04-22 09:23:36	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 90 114	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x86beec…
04-22 09:16:40	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x3f250c…
04-21 03:14:14	nba min den 2026 04 20	Nuggets	BUY	48	89¢	$43	0xcf046b…
04-21 03:13:50	nba min den 2026 04 20	Nuggets	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xe0bb1e…
04-20 06:26:16	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0x1e5ad0…
04-20 06:17:42	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xfeba40…
04-19 11:19:52	bitcoin above 72k on april 19	Yes	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xacc675…
04-19 03:57:50	bitcoin above 72k on april 19	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xcdd0d4…
04-19 03:37:00	bitcoin above 72k on april 19	Yes	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xac9787…
04-17 05:19:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$64	0x051ce0…
04-15 11:07:38	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x01f779…
04-14 07:27:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0xc712f9…
04-14 07:11:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0x1c2174…
04-12 03:37:57	bitcoin above 68k on april 12	Yes	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xaf8b01…
04-11 15:14:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0xd1b772…
04-11 03:18:11	US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x1d2cd4…
04-10 07:17:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	56	94¢	$52	0xf1136c…
04-09 09:14:01	ethereum above 2000 on april 9	Yes	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x0f183a…
04-09 06:24:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	91¢	$55	0x75e0f5…
04-08 06:09:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x6c3544…
04-08 05:37:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0xb844cd…
04-07 06:46:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x52491c…
04-07 06:46:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x8d029d…
04-06 15:23:17	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x917543…
04-06 04:01:51	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbf87bc…
04-05 19:50:47	highest temperature in london on april 6 2026 12c	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x2e3794…
04-04 04:06:09	mlb hou oak 2026 04 03	Athletics	SELL	95	100¢	$95	0xc3ea3a…
04-04 04:02:07	mlb hou oak 2026 04 03	Athletics	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd0da57…
04-04 03:30:47	mlb hou oak 2026 04 03	Athletics	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe6b7b4…
04-02 03:19:33	nba den uta 2026 04 01	Nuggets	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb9cfb6…
04-02 03:07:57	nba den uta 2026 04 01	Nuggets	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xae41d5…
04-01 11:46:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xfbde4e…
04-01 11:41:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf496e6…
04-01 11:41:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x441185…
04-01 11:35:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x768d6e…
04-01 06:44:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xbfd988…
03-31 13:49:57	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x2bf62b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Super-Something 0x4709…f6c2	69	$6.77K	174	05-06 03:44
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	68	$716.8K	12,137	06-10 01:34
(anonymous) 0x7164…9db6	67	$161.0K	12,979	03-30 06:43
(anonymous) 0x09ae…55bc	66	$1.30K	295	03-30 06:42
(anonymous) 0x113d…3ce8	65	$136.8K	8,729	03-30 06:42
(anonymous) 0xe007…548c	64	$64.8K	11,242	03-24 12:41
(anonymous) 0x8c90…6e09	63	$29.6K	874	03-30 06:15
(anonymous) 0xd44e…b15e	62	$132.2K	18,872	03-30 06:43