Numb-Eligibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$253

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

359

1,036 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.79K

$24.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-02

last 10-28 14:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Other

56% 35% -$315

Politics

40% 36% +$1,222

Tech

2% 50% +$13

Crypto

1% 42% -$54

Sports

0% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	—	+211	$26	3¢	$6	-$20	10-28 14:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	16	$2.7K	1,497	1,497	+0	No	+$53	04-29 00:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	8	$1.8K	1,632	1,632	+0	No	+$88	04-28 12:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	17	$1.6K	3,408	3,408	+0	No	+$955	04-24 13:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	6	$1.3K	414	1,014	-600	No	-$31	04-29 18:46
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?	18	$1.0K	910	593	+317	Yes	+$101	04-24 17:44
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	13	$973	1,831	1,831	+0	No	-$847	04-30 23:35
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	23	$748	1,708	1,708	+0	Yes	+$11	04-11 15:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$558	407	407	+0	Yes	+$37	04-06 06:38
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	18	$548	2,809	2,379	+430	No	+$145	04-22 06:38
will elon musk testify against altman	2	$516	328	323	+5	Yes	+$121	04-28 22:30
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	4	$423	455	455	+0	open	—	04-28 22:01
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	4	$385	306	306	+0	No	+$9	04-28 14:35
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	5	$371	366	366	+0	No	+$9	03-02 10:13
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	9	$363	840	840	+0	No	+$26	09-14 10:23
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	27	$351	7,971	7,971	+0	No	-$35	05-03 09:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	8	$326	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$166	04-24 16:40
will the dhs shutdown last 48 days or more 945	2	$311	262	262	+0	Yes	+$211	04-01 15:42
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	4	$274	168	168	+0	No	-$16	04-28 10:50
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	25	$262	8,261	7,897	+363	No	-$2	04-22 19:29
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	11	$258	1,238	1,238	+0	Yes	+$127	07-02 23:08
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	14	$247	749	749	+0	Yes	+$45	10-20 15:03
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	7	$246	1,338	1,277	+60	Yes	-$20	04-21 02:08
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	4	$245	200	200	+0	Yes	+$41	04-28 16:10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	7	$243	808	808	+0	No	+$123	04-30 05:34
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	8	$235	913	913	+0	open	—	08-07 04:56
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	3	$230	500	500	+0	Yes	-$10	05-03 09:04
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	12	$229	703	703	+0	Yes	-$21	04-21 22:14
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	16	$216	817	817	+0	Yes	+$35	05-03 09:04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	7	$178	146	146	+0	No	+$38	10-21 15:10
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$178	1,538	1,538	+0	Yes	$0	04-17 08:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 14:28:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x909c4b…
10-28 02:55:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	224	12¢	$27	0xfe5180…
10-27 03:43:26	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	7¢	$3	0xd60943…
10-27 03:15:38	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	5¢	$5	0xca2a97…
10-27 03:14:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	447	4¢	$20	0x069f32…
10-26 23:38:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xe799e3…
10-26 23:38:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	158	4¢	$6	0xaa4f0d…
10-26 23:37:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x3939ff…
10-26 18:25:44	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	6¢	$12	0x7bfbea…
10-24 22:34:23	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	237	2¢	$5	0x261eba…
10-24 14:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	230	7¢	$16	0xc22c8d…
10-24 07:57:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	13¢	$21	0xb1dc4c…
10-24 07:56:39	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	237	4¢	$9	0xd472ec…
10-24 07:34:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	11¢	$8	0x37bea3…
10-24 05:46:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	5¢	$8	0x5b8dc5…
10-24 05:11:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	7¢	$4	0x0aa39c…
10-24 05:05:48	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x7357ca…
10-24 04:25:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$4	0x6620d5…
10-24 04:23:02	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xe24bd1…
10-24 03:30:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	7¢	$6	0x0b2454…
10-24 03:25:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xa87d43…
10-24 02:30:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0xfd1a73…
10-24 02:30:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	1¢	$1	0xf6121d…
10-24 02:30:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x2c3bcd…
10-23 15:07:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x22c317…
10-23 12:00:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x9eea8e…
10-23 12:00:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xece587…
10-23 11:54:24	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x7dd33e…
10-22 07:18:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	26¢	$26	0x048e5e…
10-21 22:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	16¢	$16	0x7872c1…
10-21 15:10:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	64¢	$14	0x145448…
10-21 15:09:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xca808e…
10-21 15:08:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xda0599…
10-21 15:08:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	64¢	$11	0x2bdbaf…
10-21 14:52:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	52¢	$37	0xfd48da…
10-21 11:01:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	55¢	$41	0x39221e…
10-21 10:33:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xbef0bc…
10-21 10:30:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xb35721…
10-21 10:29:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x7ccf69…
10-21 10:22:11	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	11¢	$20	0xd1978e…
10-21 06:09:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	13¢	$6	0x0a3ed8…
10-21 06:09:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	204	3¢	$6	0x37eb78…
10-21 05:46:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x135aef…
10-21 05:45:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x6363e9…
10-21 05:17:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	254	5¢	$13	0x53217c…
10-21 05:16:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x12081e…
10-21 05:14:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	83¢	$63	0xedda81…
10-20 22:30:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	44¢	$33	0x96fc95…
10-20 15:03:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	52¢	$35	0xa6141d…
10-20 14:45:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0x8df220…
10-20 14:45:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	5¢	$7	0x6edc6a…
10-20 14:30:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	6¢	$9	0xb51404…
10-20 14:00:11	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	47¢	$32	0x7bb964…
10-20 12:24:18	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	2¢	$3	0x3d6128…
10-20 12:06:51	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x2f4bda…
10-20 07:40:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xd28ceb…
10-20 07:40:34	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$2	0x7400b2…
10-20 07:26:44	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	30¢	$40	0xbf73c1…
10-19 14:26:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	59¢	$50	0x864f10…
10-19 07:27:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	32¢	$27	0xe6a3cb…
10-19 07:06:53	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	14¢	$29	0xc7dc98…
10-18 22:51:44	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	9¢	$10	0x132acc…
10-18 22:51:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	9¢	$9	0x097378…
10-18 15:12:18	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	212	12¢	$25	0x3a7a86…
10-18 14:44:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	2¢	$2	0x777db4…
10-18 07:22:36	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0xe45261…
10-18 07:22:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	11¢	$6	0x0fcd1c…
10-18 05:17:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	10¢	$6	0xd5c780…
10-18 05:16:51	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	10¢	$6	0x0177f1…
10-18 05:11:57	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	2¢	$2	0x69e975…
10-18 01:58:57	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	281	3¢	$8	0x6161fa…
10-18 01:56:51	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x50b6ed…
10-18 01:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	4¢	$9	0xfdc219…
10-18 00:19:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	311	0¢	$1	0x07bb02…
10-18 00:19:02	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	12¢	$14	0x131e05…
10-18 00:18:48	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	13¢	$10	0xe8687c…
10-18 00:18:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	292	4¢	$12	0xc92c5d…
10-17 12:42:27	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	311	1¢	$2	0x0b785b…
10-17 12:36:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	10¢	$20	0x24bced…
10-17 12:35:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0x696b68…
10-17 12:34:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	3¢	$7	0x742253…
10-17 03:06:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	0¢	$1	0xef0f57…
10-16 04:44:16	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	442	2¢	$8	0xef3c29…
10-16 04:38:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	216	1¢	$2	0xc3aca3…
10-16 04:36:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	0¢	$1	0x57618f…
10-16 04:35:31	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	1¢	$2	0xd18440…
10-16 02:55:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	247	2¢	$5	0x278ff0…
10-16 02:54:43	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	20¢	$30	0x9b75f0…
10-08 16:51:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0xeaf664…
10-08 16:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x23bfcf…
10-08 16:30:57	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	19¢	$8	0x45704b…
10-08 16:29:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	411	2¢	$9	0xaa60c6…
10-08 15:46:59	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	5¢	$7	0xf5fe1e…
10-08 15:46:33	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	5¢	$8	0x5f76f2…
10-08 14:58:23	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	256	9¢	$23	0x831156…
10-08 14:57:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	6¢	$10	0xbee451…
10-08 13:32:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x039dfd…
10-08 11:08:11	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	0¢	$1	0x17f3f4…
10-08 09:17:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	18¢	$16	0x742745…
10-08 09:11:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x232340…