Realized P&L (30d)
-$11
Unrealized P&L
-$58
Hit rate
33.5%
Resolved (30d)
24
Trades (30d)
56
1,822 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$138
$5.18K lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$89
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-23
last 10-19 23:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Other
53% 37% +$42
Politics
32% 40% -$19
Tech
9% 44% +$5
Crypto
3% 100% +$7
Pop-Culture
2% 0% -$12
Sports
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +14 $11 78¢ $11 +$0 05-27 23:12
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +15 $31 53¢ $8 -$23 07-17 00:29
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +14 $2 52¢ $7 +$5 09-28 06:55
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $5 98¢ $6 +$0 09-13 12:52
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +24 $3 24¢ $6 +$3 10-15 12:16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +6 $4 92¢ $6 +$1 05-27 06:31
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes +18 $5 26¢ $5 +$0 09-20 15:33
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +7 $5 66¢ $5 -$1 10-08 13:59
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +6 $5 76¢ $5 -$1 10-16 19:51
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +6 $3 74¢ $4 +$1 10-14 12:40
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $4 86¢ $4 +$0 10-15 16:53
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +8 $7 43¢ $3 -$3 09-28 07:36
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $4 72¢ $3 $0 10-18 00:09
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +9 $3 33¢ $3 -$1 10-08 11:26
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2 $1 98¢ $1 +$1 07-30 16:01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +24 $3 6¢ $1 -$2 10-19 00:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +6 $4 22¢ $1 -$3 09-17 22:29
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +10 $1 13¢ $1 +$0 10-03 05:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes +16 $3 8¢ $1 -$2 10-16 16:27
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +18 $4 6¢ $1 -$3 09-05 21:17
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +14 $3 8¢ $1 -$2 10-14 06:39
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1 $1 88¢ $1 +$0 07-02 18:17
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +24 $9 4¢ $1 -$8 10-07 12:58
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +14 $0 6¢ $1 +$0 10-14 14:32
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +24 $5 2¢ $1 -$5 07-07 18:11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes +18 $5 3¢ $1 -$4 09-16 22:18
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes +24 $1 2¢ $1 -$1 06-30 12:29
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1 $1 46¢ $0 $0 10-11 23:31
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +21 $1 2¢ $0 $0 10-08 20:50
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +38 $11 1¢ $0 -$10 09-18 01:30