Junior-Production — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$21

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

3.4%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,058 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$3.53K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$40

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-19

last 08-26 08:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Politics

49% 2% -$73

Other

23% 20% -$19

Tech

14% — —

Sports

11% 20% -$9

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+31	$14	98¢	$30	+$17	07-09 20:54
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	+7	$2	96¢	$7	+$5	07-09 17:23
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Yes	+5	$3	29¢	$1	-$2	07-05 21:49
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+13	$3	6¢	$1	-$2	06-28 22:14
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+45	$5	1¢	$1	-$4	06-28 21:31
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	07-08 22:12
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+9	$6	2¢	$0	-$6	07-10 05:36
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	07-06 09:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	95	$399	454	454	+0	No	-$8	07-09 16:18
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	93	$246	574	574	+0	open	—	07-10 04:51
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	80	$236	409	392	+16	No	-$6	07-01 00:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	32	$169	604	604	+0	open	—	07-05 14:32
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	40	$132	1,380	1,373	+7	Yes	-$13	06-29 13:01
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	47	$120	174	167	+7	open	—	07-12 21:36
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	23	$112	248	239	+9	open	—	07-10 05:36
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	30	$93	108	77	+31	open	—	07-09 20:54
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	16	$74	206	206	+0	No	+$1	07-15 20:20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	17	$65	71	66	+5	No	-$1	07-14 19:20
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$62	39	39	+0	Yes	$0	06-27 22:20
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	15	$56	99	99	+0	open	—	07-09 23:01
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	6	$50	48	48	+0	cancelled	-$1	07-05 04:30
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	12	$46	145	145	+0	No	-$2	07-05 16:18
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	10	$46	100	100	+0	No	-$1	06-29 20:29
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	14	$43	48	43	+5	open	—	07-05 21:49
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	11	$42	81	69	+12	Yes	-$3	06-30 10:05
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	4	$40	338	338	+0	open	—	06-27 16:00
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	10	$38	55	38	+17	Yes	-$5	07-08 17:56
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	8	$35	41	41	+0	open	—	07-08 22:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	14	$34	125	125	+0	open	—	07-11 01:54
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	14	$32	76	76	+0	No	-$1	07-14 20:30
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	6	$30	45	45	+0	open	—	06-28 22:57
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$29	31	31	+0	Yes	$0	06-27 19:15
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$29	41	31	+10	Yes	-$4	06-28 00:58
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	8	$28	65	65	+0	open	—	07-05 23:33
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$26	46	44	+2	No	-$1	06-28 01:19
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	13	$24	53	53	+0	No	-$1	07-11 21:34
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	9	$24	29	22	+7	No	+$5	07-10 09:09
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	4	$24	16	16	+0	No	$0	07-04 17:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 08:32:16	Fed abolished before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x556008…
08-25 23:44:46	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x67cc89…
08-25 23:09:42	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x7c7ad6…
07-15 20:48:43	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xf417cd…
07-15 20:48:26	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x0a07ec…
07-15 20:48:20	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x89a02b…
07-15 20:48:02	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x571c00…
07-15 20:20:20	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0xeab2c0…
07-15 20:15:50	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0x56b0f6…
07-14 20:30:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0xd014af…
07-14 20:26:38	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x74f4b5…
07-14 20:26:34	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x0b9931…
07-14 20:26:10	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xf1e3cc…
07-14 19:20:32	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xe44593…
07-14 19:20:02	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x8d32e8…
07-14 19:19:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xbc70e3…
07-12 21:36:07	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0x9dfcfb…
07-12 21:35:32	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x0db9e6…
07-11 21:34:10	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x2b7c8f…
07-11 21:32:01	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xfa1e01…
07-11 21:29:31	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xce8619…
07-11 18:01:35	Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x4d3352…
07-11 17:26:35	Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x1fe0db…
07-11 16:52:56	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	7	21¢	$1	0x11edab…
07-11 16:49:56	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x3efd7d…
07-11 16:36:37	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x6e0b86…
07-11 16:01:32	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x45b472…
07-11 13:24:37	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x7fc931…
07-11 12:49:34	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xd7493f…
07-11 07:21:16	Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x3549e7…
07-11 06:46:11	Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x8f9067…
07-11 01:54:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x7fd731…
07-11 01:19:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x96bd53…
07-10 22:24:01	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x1924d8…
07-10 21:48:58	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x9dae9c…
07-10 20:59:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x76f28b…
07-10 20:24:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x6fdc88…
07-10 20:18:47	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x77afab…
07-10 19:43:41	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$1	0x60848f…
07-10 18:53:16	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xa36f4c…
07-10 18:18:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x0d8b44…
07-10 16:38:31	Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$2	0x24173d…
07-10 16:03:52	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0x6341a2…
07-10 15:28:52	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0xa2c26b…
07-10 10:54:17	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	9¢	$2	0x6c4a35…
07-10 10:44:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0xc214a2…
07-10 10:19:11	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x9e5211…
07-10 10:09:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x347587…
07-10 09:09:10	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x09ab20…
07-10 05:36:07	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xad7aca…
07-10 05:35:22	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x9850bc…
07-10 05:35:14	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0xb553ab…
07-10 05:24:26	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xe6d96c…
07-10 05:24:10	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xf889ac…
07-10 04:51:14	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x803c8e…
07-10 04:16:10	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x4841af…
07-10 03:01:44	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x31791c…
07-10 02:47:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x70b42f…
07-10 02:33:26	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0xf9f841…
07-10 02:33:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0xcfa209…
07-10 02:22:31	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	36	6¢	$2	0x1ae052…
07-10 02:11:40	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xeb2054…
07-10 01:58:22	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xe8ad27…
07-10 01:36:34	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x7fda87…
07-10 00:29:58	Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xf43407…
07-09 23:54:58	Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x9a5388…
07-09 23:42:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x18c4bf…
07-09 23:33:19	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	9¢	$2	0x0f8633…
07-09 23:26:56	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x547caf…
07-09 23:07:25	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x338083…
07-09 23:01:23	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x15a141…
07-09 23:01:02	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x203024…
07-09 23:00:55	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4dcbb2…
07-09 22:58:16	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x4505d5…
07-09 22:58:16	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	5¢	$2	0x30576a…
07-09 22:51:52	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x3acb07…
07-09 22:23:11	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0xf7fa48…
07-09 22:12:34	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0xbc5de5…
07-09 21:37:31	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x828c77…
07-09 21:03:20	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xf93dfb…
07-09 20:54:02	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x1b73e4…
07-09 20:53:47	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x125f6b…
07-09 20:28:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x8b15e9…
07-09 20:22:05	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x0bbc1e…
07-09 20:21:25	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x100aa8…
07-09 17:24:56	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xaea606…
07-09 17:23:59	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0x4c0792…
07-09 16:49:53	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x58d0ab…
07-09 16:48:53	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x51b819…
07-09 16:48:52	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x198dad…
07-09 16:42:22	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x5533ed…
07-09 16:38:26	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x83d50d…
07-09 16:33:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x990f7c…
07-09 16:23:10	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6982e1…
07-09 16:18:49	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x224c62…
07-09 16:13:47	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x167719…
07-09 16:07:19	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xdc6480…
07-09 16:03:23	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x99bc3d…
07-09 15:58:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xe2fd33…
07-09 15:43:50	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf424d4…