Academic-Hubris — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$668

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

69.6%

Resolved (30d)

630

Trades (30d)

8,396

38,143 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$17.4K

$222.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 11-01 02:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 220 days

Categories

Other

100% 39% +$11,698

Crypto

0% 39% -$46

Politics

0% 20% +$8

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 1057 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	+26	-$3	39¢	$10	+$14	11-01 02:24
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+40	$6	14¢	$6	$0	10-30 03:35
Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	+58	$2	4¢	$2	+$0	10-30 07:53
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+33	$1	4¢	$1	+$0	10-30 03:32
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+100	$2	1¢	$1	$0	10-30 03:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 29?	9	$2.4K	1,283	1,283	+0	No	+$84	09-28 15:08
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?	7	$2.4K	1,281	1,281	+0	Yes	+$122	05-10 05:07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 4?	10	$2.2K	1,108	1,108	+0	No	+$44	09-03 15:12
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 6?	15	$2.0K	1,222	1,222	+0	No	+$7	09-05 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 12?	32	$1.9K	1,063	1,063	+0	No	+$77	08-12 04:38
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 8?	47	$1.8K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$104	09-08 06:41
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?	145	$1.8K	2,452	2,452	+0	Yes	+$1,435	08-21 10:54
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?	122	$1.7K	1,393	1,393	+0	Yes	+$468	09-06 15:16
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	20	$1.4K	737	737	+0	No	+$14	07-04 14:28
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 9?	4	$1.4K	712	712	+0	No	+$56	05-09 04:27
highest temperature in beijing on april 7 2026 18c	8	$1.3K	649	648	+0	No	+$4	04-07 09:24
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 24?	11	$1.3K	661	656	+6	No	+$51	05-24 03:25
highest temperature in wuhan on april 13 2026 24c	99	$1.2K	636	629	+7	No	+$9	04-13 08:07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?	42	$1.2K	714	714	+0	Yes	+$125	09-04 04:33
highest temperature in taipei on april 13 2026 29c	8	$1.2K	601	601	+0	No	+$1	04-13 00:36
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14?	19	$1.2K	608	608	+0	No	+$24	05-14 02:28
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	137	$1.2K	1,665	1,458	+208	No	+$580	09-13 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 31?	93	$1.1K	1,156	1,156	+0	Yes	+$105	08-31 04:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?	69	$1.1K	804	804	+0	Yes	+$98	06-08 16:53
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 30?	4	$1.0K	526	526	+0	No	+$4	05-30 04:26
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 21?	8	$1.0K	547	547	-0	No	+$16	08-21 02:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 26?	2	$1.0K	519	519	+0	Yes	+$18	08-26 08:08
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16?	6	$1.0K	545	545	+0	No	+$9	06-16 03:01
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?	19	$1.0K	537	537	+0	No	+$9	06-21 06:07
highest temperature in tokyo on april 18 2026 20c	7	$1.0K	522	522	+0	No	+$2	04-18 04:07
highest temperature in taipei on april 11 2026 36corhigher	20	$1.0K	508	507	+0	No	+$7	04-11 05:55
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13?	4	$1.0K	506	506	+0	No	+$4	06-13 03:38
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 7?	2	$1.0K	506	506	+0	No	+$5	05-07 03:56
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?	7	$996	503	503	+0	No	+$9	08-19 06:05
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 8?	22	$956	495	495	+0	Yes	+$23	05-08 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 04:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x2d214d…
11-01 04:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xcd0dcb…
11-01 04:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x41948a…
11-01 04:00:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8d5f2f…
11-01 03:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x07275d…
11-01 03:40:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0xd67493…
11-01 03:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x553eb0…
11-01 03:36:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xc26411…
11-01 03:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x020066…
11-01 03:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xcbf5d9…
11-01 03:04:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	No	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xfb0993…
11-01 02:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	47	0¢	$0	0x73d4ea…
11-01 02:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xcfe42c…
11-01 02:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x706f4d…
11-01 02:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc37621…
11-01 02:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8bc17d…
11-01 02:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3b6a41…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xfbfd65…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xce1ec8…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xbbeb10…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xb7e44c…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb6b5de…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xa7794a…
11-01 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x134e34…
11-01 02:38:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xa68ff9…
11-01 02:37:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on November 1?	Yes	BUY	272	0¢	$0	0x4e092f…
11-01 02:37:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xeff38d…
11-01 02:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$1	0xf38c4b…
11-01 02:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x86abe1…
11-01 02:35:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$0	0x81369b…
11-01 02:35:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xc1b799…
11-01 02:35:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0x53474b…
11-01 02:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x063723…
11-01 02:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	No	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x29ec36…
11-01 02:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xaa4ca5…
11-01 02:27:42	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x2fa1ac…
11-01 02:27:42	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x2a9813…
11-01 02:27:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x8b1c44…
11-01 02:24:42	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	26	39¢	$10	0x7c0604…
11-01 02:21:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x16b282…
11-01 02:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xfcbb11…
11-01 02:15:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x6c8848…
11-01 02:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x6e6a96…
11-01 02:05:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	45	15¢	$7	0xcdafa9…
11-01 02:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x6f2892…
10-31 22:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x5107e5…
10-31 21:23:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x838c97…
10-31 21:16:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0xd9b38e…
10-31 21:12:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x27fd15…
10-31 19:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe871e8…
10-31 19:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x68c8fe…
10-31 18:50:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xdd8011…
10-31 18:48:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x23485c…
10-31 18:35:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xa8968c…
10-31 18:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xa83a37…
10-31 18:34:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xfe8e5f…
10-31 18:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xfb9786…
10-31 18:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x1d38ce…
10-31 18:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x00babb…
10-31 16:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x4fbe12…
10-31 16:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0xbfc795…
10-31 16:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	88	0¢	$0	0xc38f33…
10-31 16:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x04b0c1…
10-31 15:41:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0x6a5e34…
10-31 15:29:51	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa4d9d7…
10-31 15:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xf412c7…
10-31 15:28:49	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x94f489…
10-31 15:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xafd939…
10-31 15:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x966fc4…
10-31 15:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x52fc81…
10-31 15:24:18	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xe29a16…
10-31 15:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xab097d…
10-31 15:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x6c0258…
10-31 15:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xf50be4…
10-31 15:10:28	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	131	100¢	$131	0x211d94…
10-31 14:38:10	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdc9391…
10-31 14:20:10	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	69	96¢	$66	0x707cd5…
10-31 13:55:27	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x504331…
10-31 13:55:22	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x22dd16…
10-31 13:53:22	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	62¢	$16	0x7d3f59…
10-31 13:52:49	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 7°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x2476c5…
10-31 13:52:22	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x7b607e…
10-31 13:52:18	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x348766…
10-31 06:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfdcd03…
10-31 05:05:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0xac9497…
10-31 05:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x342a59…
10-31 05:01:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xd7745f…
10-31 04:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xccb5a4…
10-31 04:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	69	0¢	$0	0x51c7f0…
10-31 03:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x553c3c…
10-31 03:23:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0xe82bde…
10-31 03:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf10d87…
10-31 03:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa39a80…
10-31 03:04:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x07b5ae…
10-31 03:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0xffe63f…
10-31 03:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$0	0xfd18cc…
10-31 03:04:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0xcb37e7…
10-31 03:04:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa177f7…
10-31 03:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x821a7a…
10-31 02:50:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x75e376…