Academic-Hubris — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$508

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved (7d)

262

Trades (7d)

3,248

37,992 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$6.79K

$221.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-30 08:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 218 days

Categories

Other

100% 39% +$11,645

Crypto

0% 39% -$51

Politics

0% 20% +$8

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 1057 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+40	$6	11¢	$5	-$2	10-30 03:35
Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	+58	$2	4¢	$2	$0	10-30 07:53
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+100	$2	1¢	$1	$0	10-30 03:30
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+33	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-30 03:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 29?	9	$2.4K	1,283	1,283	+0	No	+$84	09-28 15:08
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?	7	$2.4K	1,281	1,281	+0	Yes	+$122	05-10 05:07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 4?	10	$2.2K	1,108	1,108	+0	No	+$44	09-03 15:12
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 6?	15	$2.0K	1,222	1,222	+0	No	+$7	09-05 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 12?	32	$1.9K	1,063	1,063	+0	No	+$77	08-12 04:38
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 8?	47	$1.8K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$104	09-08 06:41
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?	145	$1.8K	2,452	2,452	+0	Yes	+$1,435	08-21 10:54
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?	122	$1.7K	1,393	1,393	+0	Yes	+$468	09-06 15:16
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	20	$1.4K	737	737	+0	No	+$14	07-04 14:28
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 9?	4	$1.4K	712	712	+0	No	+$56	05-09 04:27
highest temperature in beijing on april 7 2026 18c	8	$1.3K	649	648	+0	No	+$4	04-07 09:24
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 24?	11	$1.3K	661	656	+6	No	+$51	05-24 03:25
highest temperature in wuhan on april 13 2026 24c	99	$1.2K	636	629	+7	No	+$9	04-13 08:07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?	42	$1.2K	714	714	+0	Yes	+$125	09-04 04:33
highest temperature in taipei on april 13 2026 29c	8	$1.2K	601	601	+0	No	+$1	04-13 00:36
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14?	19	$1.2K	608	608	+0	No	+$24	05-14 02:28
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	137	$1.2K	1,665	1,458	+208	No	+$580	09-13 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 31?	93	$1.1K	1,156	1,156	+0	Yes	+$105	08-31 04:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?	69	$1.1K	804	804	+0	Yes	+$98	06-08 16:53
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 30?	4	$1.0K	526	526	+0	No	+$4	05-30 04:26
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 21?	8	$1.0K	547	547	-0	No	+$16	08-21 02:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 26?	2	$1.0K	519	519	+0	Yes	+$18	08-26 08:08
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16?	6	$1.0K	545	545	+0	No	+$9	06-16 03:01
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?	19	$1.0K	537	537	+0	No	+$9	06-21 06:07
highest temperature in tokyo on april 18 2026 20c	7	$1.0K	522	522	+0	No	+$2	04-18 04:07
highest temperature in taipei on april 11 2026 36corhigher	20	$1.0K	508	507	+0	No	+$7	04-11 05:55
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13?	4	$1.0K	506	506	+0	No	+$4	06-13 03:38
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 7?	2	$1.0K	506	506	+0	No	+$5	05-07 03:56
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?	7	$996	503	503	+0	No	+$9	08-19 06:05
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 8?	22	$956	495	495	+0	Yes	+$23	05-08 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 08:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x0730e3…
10-30 08:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	109	0¢	$1	0xce9081…
10-30 07:53:15	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xbb7bf0…
10-30 07:01:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 30?	No	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xa71bfa…
10-30 07:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	170	0¢	$0	0xf38196…
10-30 07:00:58	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	192	1¢	$1	0x51aa23…
10-30 07:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 30?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xd03495…
10-30 06:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x70df72…
10-30 06:49:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x090430…
10-30 06:27:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x8209a5…
10-30 06:26:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x2f150f…
10-30 06:26:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0x0b8b96…
10-30 06:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x940cc8…
10-30 06:05:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5f8f87…
10-30 06:04:42	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe50463…
10-30 06:04:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xbc26a4…
10-30 06:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 30?	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x552004…
10-30 05:58:40	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xb2854e…
10-30 05:55:07	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x371ec2…
10-30 05:45:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x56dfc6…
10-30 05:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xcd9c3b…
10-30 05:24:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x055325…
10-30 05:23:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xac2a05…
10-30 05:23:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xd63762…
10-30 05:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0xcdf7a3…
10-30 05:21:34	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x393e08…
10-30 05:21:15	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x096784…
10-30 05:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xb1afbf…
10-30 05:20:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7c25d4…
10-30 05:20:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x3c4412…
10-30 05:19:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xc94642…
10-30 05:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	98	0¢	$0	0x4d4b3a…
10-30 05:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$1	0x03a47d…
10-30 05:15:49	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x339eb2…
10-30 05:13:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0x457156…
10-30 05:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe9b687…
10-30 05:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x35e519…
10-30 05:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x5bd6e7…
10-30 04:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0x29b20d…
10-30 04:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x798442…
10-30 04:34:58	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x7fb9c7…
10-30 04:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xdaf1c4…
10-30 04:33:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0xc560b8…
10-30 04:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xdc1ee3…
10-30 04:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x59b262…
10-30 04:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x01dc1e…
10-30 04:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0xb52681…
10-30 04:16:30	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xa5bf4d…
10-30 04:07:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x6ee438…
10-30 04:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x3e802c…
10-30 04:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x5ce842…
10-30 04:04:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xd059c4…
10-30 04:03:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x75cf66…
10-30 04:03:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	88	4¢	$4	0x4d06a3…
10-30 03:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x37dc1e…
10-30 03:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x2e5e08…
10-30 03:54:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xd1e07c…
10-30 03:35:22	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x4258a4…
10-30 03:34:06	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa82c94…
10-30 03:33:25	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xef2b75…
10-30 03:32:57	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x412342…
10-30 03:32:04	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x814208…
10-30 03:30:25	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x223f12…
10-30 03:29:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xcf203d…
10-30 03:28:15	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe4f3ed…
10-30 03:28:04	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf32846…
10-30 03:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x77ddf8…
10-30 03:27:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x105625…
10-30 03:18:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xd0fede…
10-30 03:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xe6c9ab…
10-30 03:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x3a17ff…
10-30 03:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	244	0¢	$0	0x85f9cb…
10-30 03:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	159	0¢	$0	0xb081eb…
10-30 03:03:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	99	0¢	$0	0x6db455…
10-30 03:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x56eb02…
10-30 03:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x51329e…
10-30 03:01:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0xfaa782…
10-30 03:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xf04860…
10-30 03:01:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x8e23f4…
10-30 03:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x264a3b…
10-30 03:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x12d130…
10-30 03:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x497be3…
10-30 02:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0x2a9835…
10-30 02:42:21	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 8°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfc4755…
10-30 02:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x0bd78d…
10-30 02:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0xdb95dc…
10-30 02:32:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x0a7385…
10-30 02:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x451c1a…
10-30 02:32:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x234af2…
10-30 02:31:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x8477d9…
10-30 02:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xb76f4e…
10-30 02:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	48	10¢	$5	0xa50cd3…
10-30 02:31:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xdd5f9a…
10-30 02:31:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0xcf1de5…
10-30 02:24:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xdccd9b…
10-30 02:16:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x7c51b5…
10-30 02:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	629	0¢	$1	0x9dce8b…
10-30 02:09:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xe0e7b9…
10-30 02:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2e8b97…
10-30 02:06:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0x10c5e7…