Lost-Output — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$35

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

261

lifetime

Volume

$4.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$451

1 position

First seen

2026-03-25

last 07-21 06:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

64% 75% $-6

Tech

16% — —

Politics

13% 100% +$0

Sports

3% 100% +$1

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+858	$415	52¢	$451	+$35	07-18 22:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$630	322	322	+0	open	—	04-26 08:49
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	12	$415	858	0	+858	open	—	07-18 22:08
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$251	252	0	+252	open	—	03-30 18:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$227	115	115	+0	open	—	04-25 05:54
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$163	84	84	+0	Yes	+$3	04-24 16:08
bkligend bas rea 2026 03 28	1	$150	166	0	+166	open	—	03-25 16:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$133	72	72	+0	open	—	04-26 06:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$119	64	64	+0	open	—	04-27 17:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$111	56	56	+0	open	—	04-20 19:16
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$103	84	27	+57	open	—	04-27 17:56
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$101	53	53	+0	Yes	+$1	04-20 21:02
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$100	57	57	+0	open	—	04-21 06:06
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-15 05:43
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	3	$55	33	33	+0	open	—	04-23 16:46
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$51	52	0	+52	open	—	03-25 16:51
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 3	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	04-01 06:09
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	03-29 07:12
btc updown 5m 1774456800	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	03-25 16:43
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$45	24	24	+0	open	—	04-27 17:45
highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 72forhigher	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	04-22 08:49
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	04-26 13:01
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27?	3	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	04-27 17:46
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	2	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	05-24 17:26
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong	2	$32	17	17	+0	open	—	05-24 17:25
atp waldner djere 2026 07 18	1	$31	32	0	+32	open	—	07-18 06:57
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	05-19 18:19
will trump say hormuz during g7 events 20260615160844591	1	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	06-17 04:54
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	05-16 06:13
will kevin warsh say trump during nomination hearing	1	$30	31	0	+31	open	—	04-20 20:04
Will Trump say "Cuba" this week?	2	$26	14	14	+0	open	—	05-19 14:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 06:08:06	itf lope aiava 2026 07 21	Destanee Aiava	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x828577…
07-20 05:10:27	atp bicknel walton 2026 07 20	Adam Walton	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa0c7ec…
07-18 22:08:42	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0xabc87a…
07-18 06:57:45	atp waldner djere 2026 07 18	Laslo Djere	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x5d0128…
07-16 06:29:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfdb0ef…
07-15 08:50:53	atp travagl navone 2026 07 15	Mariano Navone	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x3e685b…
07-14 12:40:17	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x2f79ef…
07-14 10:57:26	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0xcde1af…
07-14 10:55:31	atp vallejo damas 2026 07 14	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x2fc273…
07-13 05:55:23	atp collign skatov 2026 07 13	Raphael Collignon	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8aba33…
07-09 05:57:47	wta doubles sinitow guomlad 2026 07 08	Siniakova/Townsend	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xaa9d6d…
07-05 08:31:02	will senate be in the headlines this week 20260626174829044	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x0b0d58…
06-25 05:51:47	itf onyucho zhu 2026 06 25	Chenting Zhu	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x441f7f…
06-23 22:20:32	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x0543ee…
06-18 05:47:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xd97a58…
06-17 04:54:16	will trump say hormuz during g7 events 20260615160844591	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xc9340a…
06-14 10:53:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	51¢	$87	0xf8520a…
06-13 06:48:12	will mrbeast say eliminate or eliminated during his next youtube video 20260609182228654	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x24e0cc…
06-10 20:23:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xfe1a96…
06-10 05:52:33	will china or chinese be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260604160625618	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x67c7c2…
06-09 06:39:43	will starmer say nhs during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137135	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xc0d30c…
06-09 06:37:39	will starmer say police during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137134	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa855a6…
06-09 06:36:00	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x986e14…
06-09 05:55:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xe82e9c…
06-08 05:52:06	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x42becd…
06-08 05:43:28	atp gome ambrogi 2026 06 08	Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x0de87e…
06-03 06:03:15	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x349c2c…
06-03 06:00:36	Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3ccd62…
05-30 14:35:39	Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x5290a3…
05-28 19:52:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	58¢	$60	0x06599e…
05-28 05:25:53	Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?	Yes	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x59e50d…
05-24 17:26:01	Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Jannik Sinner	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xb1149a…
05-24 17:25:35	Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong	Alexander Blockx	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x79890d…
05-24 13:27:42	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0xab34f4…
05-24 06:12:39	Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xc95f42…
05-24 06:09:51	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xb38620…
05-23 18:45:32	Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Jannik Sinner	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x316f3d…
05-23 06:34:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x724809…
05-23 06:33:41	Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong	Alexander Blockx	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xcfd722…
05-20 16:17:54	Istanbul: Alafia Ayeni vs Franco Agamenone	Franco Agamenone	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x4a8a1d…
05-19 18:19:25	Will the White House Press Secretary say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x25eec9…
05-19 16:39:28	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x4e9265…
05-19 14:58:03	Will Trump say "Cuba" this week?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4e6f82…
05-19 12:48:21	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Kaichi Uchida	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0xd4e0f8…
05-19 12:45:16	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x682e8a…
05-19 12:31:59	Will Trump say "Cuba" this week?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x0383c2…
05-19 05:47:41	Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien	Leo Vithoontien	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xed55eb…
05-18 11:50:32	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	13	89¢	$12	0xd560fc…
05-18 05:56:27	Will the White House Press Secretary say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x8bae41…
05-18 05:54:21	LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	T1 Academy	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x1f9a4f…
05-18 05:54:05	Bengaluru 3: Keegan Smith vs Manish Sureshkumar	Keegan Smith	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x0408af…
05-18 05:53:53	Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon	Raphael Collignon	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xc67c0f…
05-17 08:57:33	LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	Team Secret Whales	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf1c4c9…
05-16 19:22:15	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud	Jannik Sinner	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x64ddc8…
05-16 06:13:20	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x04e830…
05-15 17:58:16	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x53dbff…
05-15 16:57:48	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x3f45ae…
05-15 05:50:35	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xd06d0f…
05-15 05:48:08	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x5d35d1…
05-15 05:43:23	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x20464e…
05-14 12:58:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x7886c1…
05-14 06:04:22	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xe65f01…
05-14 06:02:32	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xbdf522…
05-14 05:56:31	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x44752d…
05-11 09:03:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xc37260…
05-11 06:05:50	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin	Jannik Sinner	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3bd3fe…
05-11 06:04:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x947f9a…
05-10 06:48:19	Real Madrid vs. CB Breogan Lugo	Real Madrid	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x3df4d8…
05-09 14:57:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xf3970c…
05-08 08:06:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xc86b6b…
05-03 12:52:54	Barcelona vs. Gran Canaria	Barcelona	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x83cfc8…
05-03 08:17:02	Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 3+ times in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5cd2f3…
05-03 06:21:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x0ba199…
04-30 19:09:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x7610b7…
04-30 19:04:36	Will Trump say "Military" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x67bdf7…
04-30 05:57:02	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x34f558…
04-29 13:08:46	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x2d034d…
04-29 13:08:30	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x112537…
04-28 22:14:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xe1b0cf…
04-28 22:14:42	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x7e24a0…
04-28 05:50:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x7c30ff…
04-27 17:56:08	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x3279d4…
04-27 17:49:54	Will Trump say "Justice" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xdcc2ec…
04-27 17:46:18	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27?	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0xde81d3…
04-27 17:45:36	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x79a6c6…
04-27 17:44:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x6e9d7a…
04-27 17:43:40	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$27	0x643e7a…
04-27 05:52:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4866de…
04-26 13:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0xa4d6c8…
04-26 13:02:40	Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xf400b3…
04-26 13:01:42	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x0f1007…
04-26 12:04:44	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$16	0x203f6e…
04-26 12:00:58	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x3fa71c…
04-26 12:00:12	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xdadde3…
04-26 11:59:16	Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x628b55…
04-26 08:50:04	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xa512a3…
04-26 08:49:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x0b0b37…
04-26 08:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xd69524…
04-26 06:20:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0xd7fcde…
04-26 06:19:26	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x3a2508…