Orderly-Pain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

36.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,966

lifetime

Volume

$5.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 08-12 12:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Politics

45% 50% $-4

Sports

3% 0% $-3

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	113	$289	296	305	-9	open	—	06-21 23:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	118	$215	280	281	-1	open	—	06-20 07:20
US recession by end of 2026?	62	$210	145	205	-60	open	—	07-20 04:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	39	$159	85	110	-25	open	—	08-06 16:22
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	53	$126	110	100	+10	open	—	08-01 01:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	98	$121	250	233	+17	open	—	07-29 20:09
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	36	$112	65	65	+0	open	—	07-18 22:23
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	28	$109	70	65	+5	open	—	07-03 14:05
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	65	$109	135	140	-5	open	—	08-12 11:01
Fed rate hike in 2026?	44	$107	110	108	+2	open	—	08-04 23:39
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	32	$95	70	73	-3	open	—	08-05 03:34
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	27	$94	35	75	-40	open	—	06-22 01:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	21	$89	50	55	-5	open	—	06-18 19:14
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	20	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	07-19 22:46
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	67	$78	241	259	-17	open	—	06-12 08:07
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	55	$72	92	167	-75	open	—	07-20 17:28
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	17	$72	40	45	-5	open	—	07-04 22:59
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	17	$71	40	40	+0	open	—	06-24 10:09
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	23	$68	57	70	-13	open	—	06-12 07:00
will qatar be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522911	16	$68	40	40	+0	open	—	06-21 10:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	67	$67	632	618	+14	open	—	06-25 05:00
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	17	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	07-03 11:48
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	9	$67	30	50	-20	open	—	05-18 18:22
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	16	$64	40	40	+0	open	—	08-12 00:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	20	$61	50	50	+0	open	—	04-20 18:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	30	$55	95	60	+35	open	—	05-26 02:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	22	$52	60	50	+10	open	—	05-24 01:04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	12	$50	30	30	+0	open	—	06-11 19:49
will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	13	$49	40	20	+20	open	—	07-06 18:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	33	$48	70	90	-20	open	—	06-06 22:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 12:25:34	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x03f1db…
08-12 11:01:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x0ebd3e…
08-12 11:01:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x4c44d5…
08-12 10:46:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa74473…
08-12 05:12:42	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x6a0ee1…
08-12 05:12:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0xd9e138…
08-12 05:08:51	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x797c28…
08-12 05:08:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x05b927…
08-12 04:45:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x253b24…
08-12 04:19:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x82937b…
08-12 04:11:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa1e1fd…
08-12 01:25:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xbc4ab3…
08-12 01:12:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe6bcbd…
08-12 01:09:42	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x36992a…
08-12 00:34:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x891032…
08-12 00:12:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x6183b3…
08-11 23:14:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0xdd1324…
08-11 23:11:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xb43f41…
08-11 22:06:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf07926…
08-11 22:03:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbef6f0…
08-11 17:59:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xf87377…
08-11 13:22:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x75ffb3…
08-11 10:15:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x075d27…
08-11 04:44:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x913da3…
08-10 23:13:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3e1e4f…
08-10 19:07:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x9908b9…
08-10 19:03:07	iran full airspace closure by september 30 20260727170320670	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x1cd6b1…
08-10 14:42:03	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x7ac8e5…
08-10 05:39:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x16ed73…
08-10 04:13:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf6aa61…
08-09 19:31:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x593f4c…
08-09 18:05:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x41b623…
08-09 18:04:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x7deb4b…
08-09 18:01:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3e5a5f…
08-09 17:41:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x43e020…
08-09 16:06:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x50164c…
08-09 15:25:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x821c7a…
08-09 13:00:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x99db9b…
08-09 12:31:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xd53ddd…
08-09 12:14:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xab4e8c…
08-09 12:07:42	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x81e462…
08-09 09:13:31	viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x846c44…
08-08 17:02:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe29c52…
08-07 19:24:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x1870cb…
08-07 19:07:27	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x76883f…
08-07 18:11:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfb72ad…
08-07 17:30:52	viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x9efe00…
08-07 15:10:58	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x749730…
08-07 02:36:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbc96cc…
08-07 00:55:59	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xbe1374…
08-06 21:16:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc125bc…
08-06 16:22:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x9a010e…
08-06 16:02:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4f4d08…
08-06 13:07:08	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x483e03…
08-06 13:06:33	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd162a3…
08-06 03:27:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0xfefe0c…
08-06 03:26:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xb4094c…
08-05 21:23:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x5fdd5c…
08-05 03:34:02	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x7e67a2…
08-05 03:22:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x51e78e…
08-05 00:17:42	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x688e21…
08-04 23:39:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x6bba65…
08-04 22:24:36	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x9a2f50…
08-04 20:54:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x14512a…
08-04 19:34:57	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x39600c…
08-04 19:28:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x7cdeac…
08-04 08:21:50	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe37715…
08-04 05:52:42	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x8216b6…
08-04 05:25:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x98c17a…
08-04 01:03:11	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x714051…
08-03 23:02:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1a6603…
08-03 15:27:44	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xec4883…
08-03 03:38:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xa120b9…
08-02 21:23:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1e9629…
08-02 20:27:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5e78d2…
08-02 17:19:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x21428e…
08-02 11:29:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x153787…
08-02 09:11:27	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xa70f4f…
08-02 09:03:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb93f1c…
08-02 07:21:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x4de9ae…
08-02 03:13:08	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x210170…
08-02 02:24:47	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xbb588b…
08-02 01:04:57	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x66836e…
08-01 21:05:38	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x651c11…
08-01 21:00:42	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0x20b662…
08-01 18:08:54	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xeb4d91…
08-01 13:32:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xf69daf…
08-01 12:42:00	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd25a02…
08-01 11:15:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xcef66c…
08-01 08:28:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xe948b9…
08-01 03:23:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xfb8f82…
08-01 01:47:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x47241b…
08-01 00:14:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x8caa16…
08-01 00:14:38	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9ca292…
08-01 00:10:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x13b166…
07-31 23:36:12	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x26839c…
07-31 23:15:30	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x58482b…
07-31 22:20:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xd0fd6f…
07-31 22:02:48	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x3939f3…
07-31 21:56:29	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x4817b3…