Orderly-Pain 0x30ecc6…e2cebb
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$7
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
36.9%
Resolved
3
Trades
1,723
lifetime
Volume
$4.37K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$192
29 positions
First seen
2026-04-08
last 07-23 12:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Other
50% — —
Politics
43% 50% $-4
Sports
3% 0% $-3
Tech
3% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -24 $-21 90¢ $-22 $-1 06-22 01:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -30 $-28 70¢ $-21 +$7 07-18 11:52
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +27 $17 66¢ $18 +$0 07-22 10:02
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -15 $-12 86¢ $-12 $-0 07-03 14:05
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +15 $11 75¢ $11 +$0 07-22 14:17
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -15 $-11 74¢ $-11 $-1 07-20 07:56
US recession by end of 2026? No +12 $9 88¢ $11 +$1 07-20 04:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +70 $22 14¢ $9 $-13 07-07 09:10
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +10 $8 82¢ $8 +$1 06-24 21:13
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$0 07-18 05:37
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -8 $-3 80¢ $-6 $-4 06-08 06:13
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +6 $5 93¢ $5 +$1 06-01 18:57
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -5 $-5 88¢ $-4 +$1 07-04 22:59
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes -19 $-5 24¢ $-4 +$1 07-20 17:28
Fed rate hike in 2026? No -15 $-9 29¢ $-4 +$4 07-06 22:46
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +5 $4 83¢ $4 +$0 07-21 23:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +5 $4 78¢ $4 +$0 07-21 21:29
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -10 $-6 38¢ $-4 +$2 05-28 17:23
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No -4 $-4 90¢ $-3 +$0 06-28 17:15
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +5 $3 68¢ $3 $-0 07-19 06:35
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +5 $3 66¢ $3 +$0 07-02 05:53
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -10 $-0 32¢ $-3 $-3 06-06 20:50
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -5 $-3 68¢ $-3 +$0 07-18 17:29
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +3 $2 94¢ $3 +$0 06-06 00:37
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +3 $3 88¢ $3 +$0 06-22 08:56
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes +8 $3 18¢ $1 $-1 06-07 00:10
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +8 $1 12¢ $1 $-0 06-12 09:00
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No -1 $-0 57¢ $-1 $-0 06-15 02:40
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +0 $-0 84¢ $0 +$0 06-27 02:26