Realized P&L
+$17.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$477
Hit rate
73.8%
Resolved
866
Trades
16,324
lifetime
Volume
$875.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$54
Open exposure
$2.55K
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-04 02:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 139 days
Categories
Politics
41% 69% +$6,914
Other
40% 59% +$6,994
Tech
16% 57% +$3,141
Sports
3% 51% +$132
Crypto
1% 18% -$94
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -975 -$806 96¢ $-938 -$132 06-11 02:35
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -825 -$436 92¢ $-755 -$320 06-27 19:39
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -250 -$181 97¢ $-241 -$61 06-16 04:25
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes +338 $72 70¢ $236 +$164 08-09 22:57
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +200 $175 84¢ $167 -$8 06-01 07:18
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -101 -$61 64¢ $-65 -$5 05-05 17:13
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31 OpenAI +608 $104 10¢ $58 -$46 06-22 23:32
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +44 -$2 91¢ $40 +$42 06-25 05:56
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +300 $156 6¢ $18 -$138 06-10 14:05
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No +213 $82 5¢ $11 -$71 06-17 06:52
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -10 -$3 82¢ $-8 -$5 04-30 01:03
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No +65 -$12 8¢ $6 +$17 07-30 19:26
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No -100 -$43 2¢ $-2 +$41 06-16 13:37
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +7 $1 28¢ $2 +$1 06-04 03:20
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +125 -$43 0¢ $1 +$44 06-01 22:19