Plastic-Larder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$5.08K

Hit rate

76.6%

Resolved

2,453

Trades

32,839

lifetime

Volume

$1.12M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$14.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 01:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 264 days

Categories

Other

49% 75% +$10,013

Politics

31% 83% +$16,911

Tech

13% 81% +$2,381

Sports

5% 53% -$2,200

Crypto

2% 59% -$1,760

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 235 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+4,340	$1,431	58¢	$2.5K	+$1,108	10-28 18:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-2,000	-$1,812	96¢	$-1923	-$111	09-05 03:49
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	-2,024	-$889	83¢	$-1680	-$791	07-25 04:16
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	-1,041	-$1,061	95¢	$-988	+$74	10-23 22:04
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+2,478	$61	34¢	$855	+$794	10-28 07:30
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+1,126	-$173	72¢	$816	+$990	10-27 19:54
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+957	$595	68¢	$646	+$51	10-28 14:51
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	+661	$459	88¢	$578	+$119	09-19 10:57
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	+732	$361	66¢	$480	+$118	10-13 05:01
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	-690	-$785	65¢	$-447	+$337	10-28 08:34
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	-500	-$452	86¢	$-430	+$22	09-16 07:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-2,123	-$609	18¢	$-386	+$222	10-06 02:24
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+532	$328	67¢	$356	+$29	10-27 20:00
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+350	$314	92¢	$320	+$6	10-23 05:50
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	No	+230	$87	100¢	$229	+$142	08-20 05:19
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	-230	-$100	88¢	$-202	-$103	09-25 07:00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	-210	-$978	94¢	$-198	+$780	10-16 10:33
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-200	-$182	98¢	$-196	-$14	05-20 20:59
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-200	-$188	96¢	$-191	-$3	10-23 22:05
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+218	$37	82¢	$180	+$142	09-29 10:50
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	-150	-$458	95¢	$-143	+$315	10-10 08:12
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+149	-$607	84¢	$126	+$732	10-21 05:23
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	+349	$153	28¢	$96	-$57	10-03 21:13
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	+106	$54	90¢	$95	+$41	06-20 06:17
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	+93	-$88	100¢	$93	+$181	06-10 20:17
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	-93	-$84	95¢	$-88	-$5	06-02 17:24
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	-100	-$49	86¢	$-86	-$37	05-18 09:48
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+475	$144	18¢	$83	-$61	10-08 14:41
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	+70	$36	98¢	$69	+$33	05-10 17:25
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	+40	$9	97¢	$39	+$30	05-22 21:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	472	$21.0K	48,453	2,888	+45,565	No	+$5,331	06-30 20:16
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	892	$20.1K	23,698	14,168	+9,530	No	+$1,037	06-29 16:23
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	258	$17.6K	11,971	11,971	+0	open	—	10-20 16:46
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	356	$17.5K	18,337	15,127	+3,210	open	—	10-28 07:30
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	108	$13.3K	7,844	8,054	-210	open	—	10-16 10:33
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	246	$12.8K	13,800	12,324	+1,475	open	—	10-27 19:54
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	175	$11.5K	9,671	8,045	+1,626	open	—	10-25 20:30
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	224	$10.8K	11,017	10,714	+302	open	—	10-14 17:44
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	153	$10.4K	8,522	8,222	+301	open	—	10-19 19:09
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	200	$10.0K	12,956	9,956	+3,000	Yes	-$1,129	07-20 15:58
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	201	$9.7K	12,678	8,298	+4,380	open	—	10-28 18:05
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	162	$9.7K	6,001	6,151	-150	open	—	10-10 08:12
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	116	$9.5K	6,972	6,336	+636	Yes	+$388	10-14 05:00
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	63	$7.6K	7,904	5,234	+2,670	Yes	-$1,454	06-19 14:33
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	203	$7.5K	9,581	5,640	+3,941	Yes	-$1,116	10-14 04:29
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	112	$7.3K	5,683	5,208	+475	open	—	10-08 14:41
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	166	$7.2K	7,180	7,082	+98	open	—	10-27 02:59
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	67	$7.2K	5,152	4,223	+929	No	+$602	09-26 13:27
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	161	$6.7K	6,191	6,107	+84	Yes	+$1,026	09-02 13:49
next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	125	$6.5K	5,232	4,970	+262	No	+$392	08-31 11:40
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	201	$6.3K	8,498	7,006	+1,493	open	—	10-19 13:19
will mrbeasts next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 5	23	$5.8K	3,103	3,103	+0	Yes	+$210	02-12 15:49
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	74	$5.8K	4,688	3,361	+1,326	open	—	10-28 22:38
will polymarket mindshare hit 85 278	51	$5.8K	3,822	4,373	-551	No	+$494	03-29 20:36
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	54	$5.8K	4,006	3,186	+820	open	—	10-22 09:39
will mrbeasts next video get between 35pt5 and 36pt0 million views on day 4	82	$5.7K	4,850	4,860	-10	Yes	-$286	02-25 16:07
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	116	$5.7K	6,652	6,223	+429	No	+$1,500	09-18 21:30
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	70	$5.3K	2,779	2,779	+0	No	+$186	07-19 18:45
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 682	94	$5.3K	4,870	5,117	-247	No	+$958	01-25 12:18
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	129	$5.3K	5,267	4,554	+713	open	—	10-22 16:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 01:42:10	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0xe9fd55…
10-29 01:41:58	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x209076…
10-28 23:21:35	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb20eca…
10-28 23:21:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x9805d3…
10-28 23:21:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8424ae…
10-28 23:21:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x2c5956…
10-28 23:14:41	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	SELL	383	90¢	$344	0xfa2498…
10-28 22:45:11	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	14	82¢	$12	0x63189f…
10-28 22:44:56	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x6600f5…
10-28 22:41:02	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	153	36¢	$55	0x313b30…
10-28 22:40:47	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xe328b8…
10-28 22:40:41	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xaba5b5…
10-28 22:38:23	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	184	75¢	$138	0x8ab157…
10-28 22:19:59	Will Microsoft say "Copilot" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x288e0a…
10-28 22:09:49	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x5a606b…
10-28 21:43:05	Will Microsoft say "Agent" / "Agentic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd4762a…
10-28 21:41:31	Will Google say "Youtube" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xa06105…
10-28 21:40:19	Will Microsoft say "Copilot" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5aa488…
10-28 21:37:56	Will Microsoft say "Copilot" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0xa7d305…
10-28 21:31:02	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $87.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	59	96¢	$56	0xc4d12b…
10-28 21:28:10	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.75B by October 31?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xf51224…
10-28 21:27:56	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by October 31?	No	BUY	297	89¢	$264	0xab10a4…
10-28 21:26:22	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xda8c1c…
10-28 21:24:28	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.4T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xfe1f9a…
10-28 21:24:28	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.4T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x1884e1…
10-28 21:23:34	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xe8b301…
10-28 21:19:52	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	299	78¢	$234	0xc06446…
10-28 21:19:41	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	SELL	15	49¢	$8	0xb20908…
10-28 21:19:13	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x856a2c…
10-28 21:19:13	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x1e27d3…
10-28 21:19:13	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in October?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x19ad38…
10-28 21:18:47	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xbbb887…
10-28 21:18:47	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7867bc…
10-28 21:17:34	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xa2cdc1…
10-28 21:16:20	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x025537…
10-28 21:10:50	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0xe29be8…
10-28 21:09:31	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x7b6c00…
10-28 20:57:28	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	163	26¢	$42	0xc3951e…
10-28 20:56:19	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xdacde3…
10-28 20:52:56	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0xd79553…
10-28 20:52:56	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x2a5ed1…
10-28 20:03:26	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?	No	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0xd1084a…
10-28 20:03:26	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0xc913c2…
10-28 19:38:11	Will Microsoft say "Azure" 15+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	64	90¢	$57	0x7cd3a8…
10-28 19:36:52	Will Google say "Gemini" 30+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x21c3fe…
10-28 19:35:19	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x638ba3…
10-28 19:28:59	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0xf830ae…
10-28 19:27:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0x47f78e…
10-28 19:27:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	21	69¢	$14	0x39d912…
10-28 19:27:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	21	69¢	$14	0x337115…
10-28 19:27:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	27	69¢	$19	0x13f4e6…
10-28 19:27:34	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0x886802…
10-28 19:27:31	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	43	68¢	$29	0x5540c9…
10-28 19:27:31	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	43	68¢	$29	0x2cb193…
10-28 19:27:26	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xc5b8c7…
10-28 19:27:20	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x919d3e…
10-28 19:25:26	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x85676a…
10-28 19:25:16	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	299	60¢	$180	0x5a5907…
10-28 19:23:26	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	35	91¢	$32	0x81e013…
10-28 19:23:13	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xd24912…
10-28 19:14:40	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xdd0114…
10-28 19:04:50	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xbaebd4…
10-28 18:55:19	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0xb11704…
10-28 18:51:40	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xcdf78c…
10-28 18:51:32	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xd556f6…
10-28 18:50:55	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$101	0x814dde…
10-28 18:45:25	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x08d0f2…
10-28 18:44:01	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x505568…
10-28 18:40:32	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0xf753a3…
10-28 18:24:59	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	42	11¢	$5	0x81edeb…
10-28 18:21:43	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	55	10¢	$6	0x2aa75e…
10-28 18:10:31	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$0	0xd132d9…
10-28 18:05:28	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	208	58¢	$121	0x2fdb8d…
10-28 18:03:35	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	SELL	53	72¢	$38	0x4ba7ac…
10-28 17:49:35	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x8c048d…
10-28 17:47:22	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x27e8a0…
10-28 17:45:50	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x9baf2b…
10-28 17:40:31	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x647ed2…
10-28 17:35:13	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x2f3ce4…
10-28 17:22:17	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x36fc69…
10-28 17:21:02	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x358ef2…
10-28 17:18:43	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	45	21¢	$9	0xae5370…
10-28 17:18:43	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x9a9916…
10-28 17:18:43	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	45	21¢	$9	0x13579e…
10-28 17:18:41	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	90	21¢	$19	0xd5b225…
10-28 17:17:40	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	SELL	66	76¢	$50	0xb0fd83…
10-28 17:17:16	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xec402c…
10-28 17:16:23	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	SELL	38	76¢	$29	0xe67353…
10-28 17:16:07	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0xf8f803…
10-28 17:15:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	70	22¢	$15	0xd07502…
10-28 17:15:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xa146a9…
10-28 17:03:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xb1ff6a…
10-28 17:03:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x9e7fad…
10-28 16:07:05	US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0xd53114…
10-28 15:22:31	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	57	69¢	$39	0xb7a247…
10-28 15:22:29	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x56b424…
10-28 14:51:46	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xf9d721…
10-28 14:35:11	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x877fb4…
10-28 14:06:08	Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	97¢	$101	0xa51951…
10-28 11:35:52	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	88	49¢	$43	0xca1a4c…