Plastic-Larder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.61K

Hit rate

76.5%

Resolved

2,439

Trades

32,641

lifetime

Volume

$1.11M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$14.7K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 13:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 262 days

Categories

Other

49% 75% +$10,002

Politics

31% 83% +$16,830

Tech

13% 81% +$2,381

Sports

5% 53% -$2,200

Crypto

2% 59% -$1,760

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 235 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+4,958	$1,799	53¢	$2.6K	+$829	10-27 01:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-2,000	-$1,812	96¢	$-1921	-$109	09-05 03:49
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	-2,024	-$889	86¢	$-1741	-$852	07-25 04:16
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	-1,041	-$1,061	95¢	$-988	+$73	10-23 22:04
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+2,520	$76	36¢	$897	+$821	10-27 14:33
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+1,012	-$251	66¢	$673	+$924	10-26 14:21
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+979	$617	62¢	$612	-$5	10-25 07:55
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	+661	$459	87¢	$575	+$116	09-19 10:57
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	-717	-$803	72¢	$-514	+$289	10-16 21:00
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	+732	$361	64¢	$472	+$110	10-13 05:01
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	-500	-$452	86¢	$-427	+$24	09-16 07:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-2,123	-$609	19¢	$-411	+$198	10-06 02:24
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+509	$313	71¢	$361	+$48	10-25 03:01
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+350	$314	90¢	$317	+$3	10-23 05:50
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	No	+230	$87	100¢	$229	+$142	08-20 05:19
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	-230	-$100	88¢	$-203	-$103	09-25 07:00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	-210	-$978	94¢	$-196	+$782	10-16 10:33
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-200	-$182	98¢	$-196	-$14	05-20 20:59
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-200	-$188	94¢	$-187	+$1	10-23 22:05
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+218	$37	85¢	$185	+$148	09-29 10:50
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	-150	-$458	96¢	$-144	+$314	10-10 08:12
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+149	-$607	85¢	$126	+$733	10-21 05:23
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	+349	$153	34¢	$117	-$36	10-03 21:13
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	+106	$54	88¢	$94	+$40	06-20 06:17
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	+93	-$88	100¢	$93	+$181	06-10 20:17
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	-93	-$84	95¢	$-88	-$5	06-02 17:24
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	-100	-$49	84¢	$-84	-$36	05-18 09:48
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+475	$144	16¢	$74	-$70	10-08 14:41
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	+70	$36	98¢	$69	+$33	05-10 17:25
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	+40	$9	97¢	$39	+$30	05-22 21:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	472	$21.0K	48,453	2,888	+45,565	No	+$5,331	06-30 20:16
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	892	$20.1K	23,698	14,168	+9,530	No	+$1,037	06-29 16:23
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	258	$17.6K	11,971	11,971	+0	open	—	10-20 16:46
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	355	$17.5K	18,337	15,085	+3,252	open	—	10-27 14:33
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	108	$13.3K	7,844	8,054	-210	open	—	10-16 10:33
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	245	$12.7K	13,686	12,324	+1,361	open	—	10-26 14:21
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	175	$11.5K	9,671	8,045	+1,626	open	—	10-25 20:30
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	224	$10.8K	11,017	10,714	+302	open	—	10-14 17:44
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	153	$10.4K	8,522	8,222	+301	open	—	10-19 19:09
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	200	$10.0K	12,956	9,956	+3,000	Yes	-$1,129	07-20 15:58
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	162	$9.7K	6,001	6,151	-150	open	—	10-10 08:12
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	116	$9.5K	6,972	6,336	+636	Yes	+$388	10-14 05:00
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	199	$9.4K	12,678	7,680	+4,998	open	—	10-27 01:19
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	63	$7.6K	7,904	5,234	+2,670	Yes	-$1,454	06-19 14:33
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	203	$7.5K	9,581	5,640	+3,941	Yes	-$1,116	10-14 04:29
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	112	$7.3K	5,683	5,208	+475	open	—	10-08 14:41
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	166	$7.2K	7,180	7,082	+98	open	—	10-27 02:59
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	67	$7.2K	5,152	4,223	+929	No	+$602	09-26 13:27
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	161	$6.7K	6,191	6,107	+84	Yes	+$1,026	09-02 13:49
next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	125	$6.5K	5,232	4,970	+262	No	+$392	08-31 11:40
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	201	$6.3K	8,498	7,006	+1,493	open	—	10-19 13:19
will mrbeasts next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 5	23	$5.8K	3,103	3,103	+0	Yes	+$210	02-12 15:49
will polymarket mindshare hit 85 278	51	$5.8K	3,822	4,373	-551	No	+$494	03-29 20:36
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	54	$5.8K	4,006	3,186	+820	open	—	10-22 09:39
will mrbeasts next video get between 35pt5 and 36pt0 million views on day 4	82	$5.7K	4,850	4,860	-10	Yes	-$286	02-25 16:07
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	116	$5.7K	6,652	6,223	+429	No	+$1,500	09-18 21:30
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	73	$5.6K	4,688	3,177	+1,510	open	—	10-20 20:57
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	70	$5.3K	2,779	2,779	+0	No	+$186	07-19 18:45
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 682	94	$5.3K	4,870	5,117	-247	No	+$958	01-25 12:18
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	129	$5.3K	5,267	4,554	+713	open	—	10-22 16:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 14:57:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	70	67¢	$47	0xc734b8…
10-27 14:33:56	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	65	37¢	$24	0xb0934d…
10-27 13:24:44	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x36ee0b…
10-27 13:03:00	Will Google say "Debt" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x42f91c…
10-27 12:00:23	Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xb1fcb1…
10-27 09:00:38	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa7b051…
10-27 06:29:15	Will Coca-Cola say "Oil" / "Gas" / "Gasoline" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x66dfbf…
10-27 06:00:14	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.60 and $2.70 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe62e00…
10-27 02:59:14	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	9	64¢	$5	0xb76359…
10-27 01:19:30	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	360	60¢	$216	0x277d37…
10-26 22:15:00	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x58f7ee…
10-26 21:40:38	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$49	0x988dec…
10-26 19:00:23	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x530bc9…
10-26 18:36:11	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x05f4d0…
10-26 18:24:09	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x5096ad…
10-26 17:59:33	Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x1c5181…
10-26 16:43:23	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	274	52¢	$143	0xe9ef1d…
10-26 16:43:17	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	926	52¢	$481	0xece134…
10-26 16:42:21	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0xc44036…
10-26 16:34:33	Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	89¢	$41	0xd5bc28…
10-26 15:05:03	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	324	26¢	$84	0xf503a8…
10-26 14:54:15	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x35642b…
10-26 14:21:51	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	88	89¢	$78	0x337e57…
10-26 14:16:39	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	No	SELL	71	96¢	$68	0x0faf3d…
10-26 14:13:12	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xec9c18…
10-26 14:13:09	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	199	69¢	$138	0xd40ce3…
10-26 14:12:56	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x55ea0f…
10-26 14:11:56	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x8f042f…
10-26 14:08:33	Will Robinhood say "Gold" 5+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x98e958…
10-26 13:20:57	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0x9d435a…
10-26 13:20:44	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	283	35¢	$99	0xf5cd23…
10-26 12:54:15	Will Verizon say "Broadband" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	79	90¢	$71	0xd57ce4…
10-26 11:26:56	Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xb22472…
10-26 11:01:39	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2ad81c…
10-26 10:57:06	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe6cf0e…
10-26 10:57:06	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x4dbd53…
10-26 10:13:05	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x161aff…
10-26 09:58:24	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x77829b…
10-26 09:58:20	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x93fa31…
10-26 09:58:06	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x910f68…
10-26 09:57:47	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	47	65¢	$31	0xef70ff…
10-26 09:57:44	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	52	65¢	$34	0x42c317…
10-26 09:57:38	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	115	64¢	$74	0x8e50af…
10-26 09:55:54	Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x7d64a7…
10-26 09:42:50	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	705	48¢	$338	0xb18aa1…
10-26 09:41:42	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x8cab53…
10-26 09:41:42	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x110946…
10-26 09:38:33	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xa0f474…
10-26 08:59:33	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	303	32¢	$98	0xa054c6…
10-26 07:58:44	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	224	73¢	$164	0xb9a507…
10-26 05:24:02	Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xa5db46…
10-25 22:02:42	Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0x71c2c4…
10-25 20:46:48	Will Robinhood say "Gold" 5+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	85	92¢	$78	0x2986e3…
10-25 20:45:20	Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x8cf223…
10-25 20:36:20	Will Coca-Cola say "Oil" / "Gas" / "Gasoline" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x2790a6…
10-25 20:36:12	Will Coca-Cola say "Oil" / "Gas" / "Gasoline" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xcb251b…
10-25 20:30:30	Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0xeec925…
10-25 20:28:56	Will Verizon say "Infrastructure" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0x647b03…
10-25 20:28:00	Will Verizon say "Infrastructure" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	135	88¢	$119	0x820db5…
10-25 20:25:48	Will Verizon say "Churn" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	119	91¢	$108	0x25db1b…
10-25 20:25:30	Will Verizon say "Broadband" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	62	89¢	$56	0x0fef47…
10-25 20:25:09	Will Verizon say "Broadband" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x25db2e…
10-25 20:06:47	Will Verizon say "Fiber" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xaed7b5…
10-25 20:06:05	Will Verizon say "Fiber" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	160	88¢	$141	0x56dcd1…
10-25 19:54:26	Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	SELL	483	99¢	$478	0x40ef2f…
10-25 19:53:42	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x51cb85…
10-25 18:19:33	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	232	31¢	$71	0x88f7f3…
10-25 16:17:33	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x534ba5…
10-25 16:09:00	Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	SELL	51	93¢	$47	0x8ed104…
10-25 14:12:12	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $55B by October 31?	No	BUY	61	79¢	$48	0xca6704…
10-25 13:03:44	Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	76	58¢	$44	0x90d976…
10-25 10:15:00	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x79388a…
10-25 09:00:38	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xbfa765…
10-25 08:54:53	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0xcb7888…
10-25 08:40:44	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0xa600c2…
10-25 08:40:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	19	91¢	$18	0xaa8143…
10-25 08:13:44	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20B by October 31?	No	BUY	150	74¢	$111	0x9d4ab4…
10-25 08:13:35	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xf0e180…
10-25 07:55:59	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xb5231f…
10-25 07:54:42	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x406653…
10-25 07:01:08	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.60 and $2.70 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0xdb325c…
10-25 07:01:06	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x67e739…
10-25 06:54:45	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x211c7e…
10-25 06:50:23	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	96	60¢	$58	0x9a22e8…
10-25 06:34:57	Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xbfff0a…
10-25 04:04:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	273	58¢	$159	0x443173…
10-25 04:04:41	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x0a2d97…
10-25 04:00:15	Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	108	30¢	$32	0xe6886e…
10-25 04:00:15	Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x923270…
10-25 03:59:23	Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	534	27¢	$146	0xff36dc…
10-25 03:56:06	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x0f9572…
10-25 03:55:56	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	124	85¢	$105	0x8ec4b1…
10-25 03:54:53	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xe97d9d…
10-25 03:54:51	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x5c10eb…
10-25 03:41:35	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x9cc6b7…
10-25 03:41:35	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x2ee9a7…
10-25 03:41:33	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe0d9b9…
10-25 03:41:32	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x4d6b84…
10-25 03:41:32	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x46f673…
10-25 03:12:17	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9f6601…