Realized P&L
-$410
Unrealized P&L
+$25
Hit rate
45.5%
Resolved
394
Trades
1,533
lifetime
Volume
$8.03K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$401
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-18
last 10-21 15:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 139 days
Categories
Other
48% 41% -$98
Politics
27% 42% -$151
Crypto
16% 36% -$119
Tech
8% 32% -$30
Sports
2% 33% -$11
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No -61 -$58 98¢ $-60 -$1 06-25 09:53
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No -59 -$57 98¢ $-58 -$2 06-25 09:53
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +35 $22 66¢ $23 +$2 06-15 00:37
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No -23 -$22 97¢ $-22 $0 10-21 15:07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +26 $19 82¢ $22 +$2 08-07 00:35
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No +20 $15 90¢ $18 +$3 07-12 06:27
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -18 -$17 98¢ $-17 +$0 06-25 10:35
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes -18 -$15 88¢ $-15 $0 06-12 00:53
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +13 $12 97¢ $13 +$1 06-12 13:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +15 $11 82¢ $13 +$2 08-30 21:23
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +15 $10 72¢ $11 +$1 08-13 15:26
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +10 $8 100¢ $10 +$2 06-24 08:37
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +10 $7 95¢ $10 +$3 06-21 23:46
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +10 $8 94¢ $9 +$1 06-24 10:51
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +10 $8 91¢ $9 +$1 06-24 13:44
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -9 -$9 96¢ $-9 $0 06-12 00:54
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$0 06-16 17:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$1 07-22 16:30
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -9 -$9 98¢ $-9 $0 08-18 03:46
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +9 $8 96¢ $9 +$1 06-10 15:37
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +12 $10 67¢ $8 -$2 08-13 13:41
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No -8 -$6 92¢ $-7 -$1 09-01 03:14
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No -8 -$3 82¢ $-7 -$4 05-11 20:36
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No -6 -$6 94¢ $-5 +$0 08-25 09:52
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No +5 $1 90¢ $5 +$4 06-01 11:54
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No -23 -$10 16¢ $-4 +$6 07-21 19:44
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes -5 -$4 72¢ $-4 +$0 06-14 22:01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5 $3 58¢ $3 $0 06-10 23:23
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes +10 $4 24¢ $2 -$1 06-17 22:38
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +2 -$6 90¢ $1 +$8 08-06 16:58