Realized P&L
+$16
Unrealized P&L
+$14
Hit rate
74.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
715
lifetime
Volume
$3.17K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$443
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-18
last 07-01 05:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
42% 50% +$4
Politics
33% 100% +$13
Crypto
15% 0% $-2
Tech
7%
Sports
3%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No -61 $-58 95¢ $-58 +$0 06-25 09:53
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No -59 $-57 96¢ $-57 $-0 06-25 09:53
Obama divorce before 2027? No -42 $-40 95¢ $-40 $-1 06-25 10:04
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +48 $21 74¢ $36 +$15 06-20 08:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +35 $30 86¢ $31 +$1 06-15 00:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +25 $24 95¢ $24 +$0 06-12 02:54
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +27 $21 76¢ $21 $-0 06-29 03:57
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +20 $14 76¢ $15 +$2 06-19 07:12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -14 $-14 94¢ $-14 $-0 06-12 00:54
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +13 $12 93¢ $13 +$0 06-12 13:43
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +50 $16 24¢ $12 $-3 06-19 17:26
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$1 06-16 17:56
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +10 $8 89¢ $9 +$1 06-24 10:51
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$0 06-24 13:44
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 +$0 06-10 15:37
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Something -100 $-4 $-8 $-4 06-15 08:46
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +10 $7 76¢ $8 +$1 06-21 23:46
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No -7 $-7 99¢ $-7 $-0 06-22 12:16
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +16 $7 44¢ $7 +$1 06-30 08:40
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +11 $7 65¢ $7 $-0 06-05 14:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +10 $3 70¢ $7 +$4 06-17 15:51
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +10 $6 57¢ $6 $-0 06-23 10:06
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +6 $5 92¢ $6 +$0 06-05 13:58
Anthropic acquired before 2027? No -6 $-6 98¢ $-6 $-0 06-27 16:54
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No -5 $-5 100¢ $-5 $-0 06-13 07:22
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes +30 $5 17¢ $5 +$0 06-25 13:32
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 06-05 15:45
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes -34 $-2 13¢ $-4 $-2 06-08 15:13
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No +5 $4 84¢ $4 +$0 06-04 05:57
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? No -10 $-4 42¢ $-4 $-1 07-01 05:15