Realized P&L
+$16
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
74.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
407
lifetime
Volume
$1.65K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$134
22 positions
First seen
2026-03-18
last 06-09 18:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
47% 50% +$4
Politics
35% 100% +$13
Crypto
14% 0% $-2
Tech
3%
Sports
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
49 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No +95 $29 32¢ $31 +$2 06-09 14:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No +40 $17 62¢ $25 +$8 05-31 21:14
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +11 $7 74¢ $8 +$1 06-05 14:04
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No -8 $-7 94¢ $-7 $-0 06-01 09:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -7 $-6 82¢ $-6 +$0 06-07 15:32
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +6 $5 90¢ $6 +$0 06-05 13:58
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No -7 $-4 73¢ $-5 $-1 06-01 13:26
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 06-02 13:55
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 $-0 06-05 15:45
Trump out as President before 2027? No +5 $4 90¢ $4 $-0 06-05 14:08
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Yes +48 $4 $4 +$0 05-31 21:09
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No +5 $4 82¢ $4 +$0 06-04 05:57
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes -34 $-2 12¢ $-4 $-2 06-08 15:13
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No -5 $-4 81¢ $-4 +$0 06-01 11:54
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -6 $-3 56¢ $-3 +$0 05-31 20:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes -8 $-4 36¢ $-3 +$2 05-31 20:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No -7 $-4 40¢ $-3 +$1 05-31 20:50
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No +53 $3 $2 $-0 06-09 21:33
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No +8 $2 24¢ $2 $-0 06-05 17:22
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +5 $1 32¢ $2 +$0 06-04 23:24
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No +11 $1 11¢ $1 +$0 06-09 18:16
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Yes -7 $-0 11¢ $-1 $-0 06-01 13:20