Curvy-Incentive — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

50.6%

Resolved

Trades

191

lifetime

Volume

$2.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 09-09 03:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

53% 39% -$6

Crypto

24% 58% -$16

Sports

10% 36% -$6

Politics

7% 75% +$0

Tech

6% 67% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No		+14	$13	90¢	$12	-$1	09-09 03:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$193	99	99	+0	No	+$0	04-22 01:26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$93	47	47	+0	No	$0	04-25 03:11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	4	$86	44	44	+0	No	$0	05-25 01:15
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$80	41	41	+0	No	+$0	05-20 09:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$69	35	35	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 01:37
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$69	38	38	+0	No	+$0	04-06 11:34
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	04-12 02:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	04-18 10:08
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	04-28 03:22
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	04-28 03:24
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$66	33	33	-0	open	—	05-01 09:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 01:05 UTC	2	$66	48	48	+1	Down	+$5	03-26 01:06
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	3	$66	33	33	+0	No	$0	03-12 09:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	03-16 10:58
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	05-16 03:16
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	05-21 01:56
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	2	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	05-17 15:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 12:00 UTC	6	$63	67	66	+0	Up	+$7	02-02 12:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 01:00 UTC	2	$61	89	88	+1	Up	+$2	03-26 01:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-01 09:32
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$50	26	26	+0	No	+$0	06-15 05:18
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	05-22 07:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$42	51	50	+1	No	$0	04-17 00:37
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	06-18 01:17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	05-29 14:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$40	24	24	+0	open	—	05-16 03:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 13:00 UTC	7	$36	64	47	+17	Up	-$14	02-02 13:12
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	05-14 02:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$33	34	0	+34	Yes	+$1	04-28 14:06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-17 14:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-09 03:01:34	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x110948…
09-06 15:42:52	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2b85d1…
08-20 01:46:07	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa08db9…
08-20 01:45:43	Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xda9a86…
08-13 02:15:04	Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0x165541…
08-13 02:14:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 02:10 UTC	Up	SELL	16	54¢	$9	0xca2b68…
08-13 02:12:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 02:10 UTC	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x3abac7…
08-13 02:11:45	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x14e7b6…
08-02 06:28:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa37ee6…
08-02 06:27:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 06:25 UTC	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x22b4dc…
08-02 06:27:00	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x852d93…
08-02 06:26:56	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x074259…
07-30 08:02:38	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7958ae…
07-30 08:02:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf62bfe…
07-30 08:02:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe36452…
07-30 04:14:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x49494f…
07-30 04:13:45	Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xb91b75…
07-29 09:40:45	Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc882c4…
07-29 09:39:26	Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x846c5a…
07-22 12:40:30	Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x429cde…
07-18 10:10:45	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0x8b3fd2…
07-18 10:10:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xdc746e…
07-14 00:57:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x752291…
07-07 12:07:58	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4fcc73…
07-07 12:07:41	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x981349…
06-30 00:06:59	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x01bcd5…
06-30 00:06:41	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf1750b…
06-30 00:06:23	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xf9ede4…
06-30 00:06:17	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x333a97…
06-23 07:44:34	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xaaeafe…
06-23 07:44:19	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x710bee…
06-23 07:44:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0xf4dadc…
06-18 01:18:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x09d274…
06-18 01:17:58	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x406174…
06-18 01:17:31	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x247bc3…
06-15 05:23:06	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdfcaac…
06-15 05:20:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 05:20 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9c07e6…
06-15 05:18:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x4d850a…
06-13 02:15:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x422139…
06-13 02:14:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x1fd90f…
06-13 02:14:04	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xfce25c…
06-10 10:45:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x0a61a3…
06-10 10:45:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8e77f5…
06-10 10:45:03	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9cf735…
06-10 10:44:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x78dd5a…
05-29 14:31:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0xf6d64e…
05-29 14:31:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe3e654…
05-29 14:31:17	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x44e139…
05-29 14:31:00	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xe0f909…
05-29 14:30:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x66025a…
05-26 08:04:23	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x93ba88…
05-26 08:04:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xdf78e6…
05-26 08:03:50	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x65bd54…
05-26 08:03:45	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x5574c6…
05-26 08:03:39	Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x5b8a6e…
05-25 01:17:23	Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9db7b9…
05-25 01:16:39	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x14112c…
05-25 01:16:21	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x086728…
05-25 01:15:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x2475c8…
05-25 01:15:45	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x0ddf8b…
05-25 01:15:39	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x191d59…
05-22 07:54:38	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x85d37d…
05-22 07:54:26	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x68def7…
05-22 07:54:17	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb24119…
05-22 07:53:23	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x13e3c8…
05-22 07:53:18	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x38fd5b…
05-21 15:23:54	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x282eb2…
05-21 15:23:35	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xac071d…
05-21 15:23:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd796b9…
05-21 15:22:30	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe11b0b…
05-21 15:22:25	Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x038061…
05-21 15:22:20	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xb8998a…
05-21 01:57:44	Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x78efa5…
05-21 01:57:27	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x8d7450…
05-21 01:57:14	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe08b67…
05-21 01:56:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xa57e9c…
05-20 09:13:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x9ff581…
05-20 09:13:40	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xf3fff4…
05-20 09:13:35	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x2a464d…
05-17 15:43:10	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x67723a…
05-17 15:42:55	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x72d128…
05-17 15:42:30	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x10fe74…
05-17 14:30:33	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xa6ebb5…
05-17 14:30:15	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xb61ab3…
05-17 14:30:08	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x71ecaa…
05-16 03:16:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x29a4ef…
05-16 03:16:21	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x88605f…
05-16 03:16:03	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xc24be7…
05-16 03:15:56	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x0039cc…
05-16 03:15:49	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0xa1ee42…
05-16 03:15:21	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x9e7e5d…
05-16 03:15:16	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0xe68756…
05-16 01:18:52	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5bae85…
05-16 01:17:26	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xdcbf59…
05-16 01:17:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xf29f81…
05-14 02:26:00	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x3ca946…
05-14 02:25:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xbbd60d…
05-14 02:25:07	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x42c5aa…
05-14 02:25:02	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xf486bb…
05-08 01:31:15	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x79fce0…