Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

+$437

Unrealized P&L

+$13.6K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

3,048 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$1000

$1.66M lifetime

Avg / trade

$545

Open exposure

$154.0K

26 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-31 20:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

49% 63% -$84,006

Other

43% 55% +$4,809

Sports

5% 76% -$1,196

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (26) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+30,246	$24,018	98¢	$29.7K	+$5,699	10-29 04:57
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	+23,602	$15,323	100¢	$23.6K	+$8,255	10-19 11:00
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+16,187	$13,661	98¢	$15.8K	+$2,162	10-28 20:38
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+19,129	$14,278	72¢	$13.7K	-$572	10-30 21:44
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	+15,358	$12,030	88¢	$13.6K	+$1,562	10-29 17:47
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+14,112	$11,936	86¢	$12.1K	+$200	10-31 20:32
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	+8,027	$7,387	94¢	$7.6K	+$174	09-13 20:44
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,459	$5,825	90¢	$6.7K	+$850	10-30 03:43
will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	+6,634	$5,609	98¢	$6.5K	+$876	09-11 18:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+7,026	$6,193	91¢	$6.4K	+$176	10-31 02:26
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+13,172	$6,817	44¢	$5.9K	-$956	09-11 05:12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+2,660	$2,500	94¢	$2.5K	+$13	10-29 17:31
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14,769	$3,457	16¢	$2.3K	-$1,168	10-17 19:51
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+2,169	$1,998	100¢	$2.2K	+$162	10-20 10:45
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,976	$1,552	84¢	$1.7K	+$117	10-30 18:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+11,210	$2,742	12¢	$1.3K	-$1,453	09-23 15:38
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+1,531	$722	56¢	$849	+$128	09-09 10:02
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+790	$678	90¢	$714	+$36	07-01 06:02
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,836	$475	11¢	$403	-$72	10-29 14:23
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+361	$313	86¢	$309	-$4	10-30 16:59
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	-167	-$178	96¢	$-161	+$16	10-14 12:09
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+100	$88	90¢	$90	+$2	10-29 09:39
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+46	$40	91¢	$41	+$1	10-15 16:18
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+7,064	$2,662	0¢	$7	-$2,655	10-07 13:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+7	$6	82¢	$6	+$0	10-24 16:05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+20	$1	9¢	$2	+$1	10-17 23:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	59	$210.8K	113,341	113,341	+0	No	+$1,413	04-09 14:39
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	17	$186.4K	99,138	99,138	+0	No	+$1,326	03-19 19:28
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	158	$96.8K	65,510	61,249	+4,261	Yes	-$1,614	02-13 19:42
iran leadership change by march 31	56	$70.9K	41,271	41,271	+0	No	+$1,939	03-25 09:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	71	$65.9K	59,433	25,150	+34,283	Yes	-$26,718	02-18 09:39
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	19	$63.1K	50,246	20,000	+30,246	open	—	10-29 04:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	66	$61.3K	87,849	48,203	+39,646	Yes	-$25,257	03-24 18:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	37	$59.7K	36,657	36,657	+0	Yes	+$1,080	03-19 15:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	32	$50.2K	46,049	19,276	+26,773	Yes	-$5,581	02-11 21:01
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	53	$48.2K	60,856	32,855	+28,001	Yes	+$1,587	01-30 16:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	71	$45.3K	98,584	70,607	+27,976	Yes	-$11,234	04-07 19:18
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	14	$42.0K	76,842	76,842	+0	No	+$1,345	03-08 22:30
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	109	$41.3K	95,633	90,492	+5,140	No	+$1,052	03-25 13:37
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	93	$33.4K	95,302	73,994	+21,308	Yes	+$376	08-18 18:06
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	103	$27.3K	43,823	17,256	+26,568	open	—	10-29 17:47
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	13	$23.7K	14,354	10,526	+3,828	No	+$115	08-05 18:33
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	15	$22.6K	14,396	10,612	+3,784	Yes	+$656	01-22 12:29
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	24	$22.2K	20,545	4,358	+16,187	open	—	10-28 20:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	12	$21.2K	35,598	0	+35,598	Yes	-$20,021	06-12 16:52
cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19	48	$20.9K	30,317	4,000	+26,317	Spirit	+$1,773	06-19 14:46
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	38	$19.3K	11,458	11,458	+0	No	+$2,754	01-18 20:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	19	$18.3K	38,599	16,334	+22,265	Yes	-$5,397	06-13 18:36
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	29	$18.0K	30,667	0	+30,667	open	—	10-19 11:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$16.8K	20,738	0	+20,738	No	+$3,938	05-06 09:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	37	$16.7K	28,005	1,993	+26,012	No	+$7,857	06-18 07:15
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	124	$14.6K	22,697	17,776	+4,921	Yes	-$822	07-01 15:32
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	30	$14.3K	19,129	0	+19,129	open	—	10-30 21:44
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	114	$13.8K	55,180	55,180	+0	Yes	-$5,090	01-18 20:02
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	24	$12.2K	32,789	16,044	+16,745	open	—	10-30 18:26
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	19	$11.9K	14,112	0	+14,112	open	—	10-31 20:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 20:32:48	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,152	87¢	$1,000	0x03861f…
10-31 02:26:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	234	93¢	$217	0xb50d92…
10-30 21:44:30	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	563	70¢	$394	0xf1c137…
10-30 20:55:49	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x6a0e51…
10-30 20:55:48	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	865	70¢	$606	0x373e39…
10-30 18:41:30	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xf0bc2b…
10-30 18:40:49	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,157	86¢	$1,000	0x297434…
10-30 18:26:37	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0x94251d…
10-30 16:59:45	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	86¢	$97	0xbcc811…
10-30 16:31:52	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	569	70¢	$400	0x6e83dc…
10-30 16:30:27	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,383	72¢	$1,000	0xa85c41…
10-30 15:48:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0xec75b1…
10-30 15:46:36	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	62	10¢	$6	0xcb3c6e…
10-30 15:46:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xd0a59b…
10-30 15:46:07	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	75	10¢	$8	0x53b84c…
10-30 15:45:33	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	274	9¢	$25	0x45eae5…
10-30 15:45:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	60	8¢	$5	0x589289…
10-30 15:45:24	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	62	8¢	$5	0x0c9bda…
10-30 15:45:18	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	127	8¢	$10	0x176f67…
10-30 15:44:45	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	249	82¢	$204	0xdbb28f…
10-30 15:39:36	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	217	10¢	$22	0x5288b0…
10-30 15:39:36	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x2b22fa…
10-30 15:38:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	410	10¢	$41	0xa7b474…
10-30 15:38:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x4cdda3…
10-30 15:38:09	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	222	10¢	$22	0xb45fb3…
10-30 15:37:57	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xfcea19…
10-30 15:37:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	99	10¢	$10	0x55209b…
10-30 15:36:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	827	9¢	$74	0xc03f22…
10-30 15:36:39	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	111	9¢	$10	0x490c82…
10-30 15:36:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	60	9¢	$5	0xa8d661…
10-30 15:08:52	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x40113f…
10-30 15:00:39	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	758	97¢	$736	0x623a25…
10-30 14:45:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0xf4b500…
10-30 11:00:10	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	788	77¢	$608	0x96a8aa…
10-30 09:06:51	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x024e03…
10-30 03:43:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0xf0741b…
10-29 22:56:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd749f0…
10-29 22:56:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	328	81¢	$266	0xc364fa…
10-29 22:56:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0xbb1bd1…
10-29 22:28:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	433	97¢	$420	0xd2cdce…
10-29 19:55:03	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0x0c7273…
10-29 19:55:01	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0xbdc6d4…
10-29 19:55:01	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	134	86¢	$116	0x2bd9da…
10-29 17:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,306	89¢	$1,162	0xc1f27d…
10-29 17:44:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	2,604	96¢	$2,500	0xf99ced…
10-29 17:41:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	548	98¢	$537	0xb11ef2…
10-29 17:34:53	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	929	31¢	$288	0xb97119…
10-29 17:31:11	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	2,660	94¢	$2,500	0xeaa017…
10-29 15:52:11	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x3275f7…
10-29 15:51:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	479	91¢	$436	0x450f09…
10-29 15:34:38	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	136	68¢	$93	0x878a0b…
10-29 14:23:22	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xaf68fe…
10-29 14:23:17	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	7¢	$16	0xea6758…
10-29 14:23:16	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	288	7¢	$20	0xc8768a…
10-29 14:23:16	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	7¢	$11	0x1721c0…
10-29 13:38:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	387	65¢	$252	0x4f2fc6…
10-29 12:58:34	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	1,620	80¢	$1,296	0x3267bd…
10-29 10:18:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	631	63¢	$398	0xa6199a…
10-29 09:39:41	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xf25afd…
10-29 04:57:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,000	98¢	$9,820	0x4fa9a7…
10-29 03:10:10	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	971	10¢	$97	0x43ac03…
10-28 21:46:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	322	93¢	$299	0x856429…
10-28 21:22:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	151	34¢	$51	0x405522…
10-28 21:19:20	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	1,572	75¢	$1,179	0x7df834…
10-28 21:03:23	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	283	36¢	$102	0xee4543…
10-28 21:03:23	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	1,510	36¢	$544	0x0b84fd…
10-28 20:38:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	563	98¢	$550	0xd3ae2f…
10-28 20:10:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	1,845	64¢	$1,181	0xdffb7b…
10-28 20:08:35	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	816	63¢	$514	0x2d83f5…
10-28 20:05:47	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	192	87¢	$167	0x690e87…
10-28 20:05:46	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	87¢	$49	0xe5bed1…
10-28 19:32:20	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xd9fd97…
10-28 19:32:20	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0x3e783d…
10-28 19:32:17	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	685	98¢	$670	0x257a60…
10-28 04:16:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	38	28¢	$11	0x55dddb…
10-28 04:16:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$5	0x411707…
10-26 01:20:00	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0xea2152…
10-24 16:05:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xe63653…
10-21 16:44:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0x32ea06…
10-21 01:03:26	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x5c97cc…
10-20 10:45:03	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xe09366…
10-19 11:00:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x760fad…
10-18 14:08:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x84cd89…
10-17 23:25:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x038cd6…
10-17 19:51:11	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x521779…
10-17 13:12:59	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	54	91¢	$49	0x3be207…
10-15 16:18:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x73cb4e…
10-15 11:23:22	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	92¢	$76	0xf2d206…
10-14 15:11:01	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	195	73¢	$142	0x253d9d…
10-14 12:09:41	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x58806d…
10-14 11:38:11	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	115	96¢	$110	0x77e58c…
10-14 02:05:59	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	223	74¢	$165	0xa4dc64…
10-13 18:59:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	328	96¢	$314	0x65cd2e…
10-13 12:42:13	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	105	96¢	$100	0x54c98b…
10-13 12:34:47	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0x8533dd…
10-13 12:23:32	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x019137…
10-13 12:23:02	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x9cd692…
10-13 12:05:10	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	98	96¢	$94	0x32ca59…
10-13 11:12:25	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xea47d5…
10-13 07:52:35	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	61	96¢	$58	0xa1319f…