Naive-Soulmate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$33.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$778

Hit rate

87.3%

Resolved

175

Trades

2,315

lifetime

Volume

$1.25M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$540

Open exposure

$25.0K

10 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-28 19:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Politics

71% 80% +$23,032

Other

29% 67% +$8,986

Crypto

1% 60% +$151

Tech

0% 100% +$32

Sports

0% 100% +$830

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 101 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+20,000	$19,500	98¢	$19.5K	+$40	10-28 11:11
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+2,853	$2,777	98¢	$2.8K	+$13	10-23 21:07
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	-1,165	-$932	94¢	$-1101	-$169	09-02 20:59
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+4,000	$500	12¢	$500	+$0	10-28 15:05
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	+607	$465	74¢	$446	-$19	10-25 16:02
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	+1,185	-$639	26¢	$314	+$953	10-25 21:12
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+949	$338	30¢	$287	-$52	10-28 12:43
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	-2,771	-$41	1¢	$-40	+$1	10-24 22:52
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+308	$15	8¢	$26	+$11	10-14 08:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	56¢	$0	$0	10-27 19:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	119	$146.8K	86,825	81,092	+5,734	Yes	+$3,293	04-07 22:55
will trump visit china by march 31	22	$83.4K	40,338	44,089	-3,751	No	+$347	03-25 18:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	74	$79.1K	43,578	43,711	-134	No	+$1,378	03-27 08:56
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	109	$74.0K	107,254	91,314	+15,940	Yes	+$1,848	04-04 17:02
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	24	$62.7K	33,230	33,230	+0	Yes	-$180	04-16 08:55
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	22	$60.9K	31,747	31,747	+0	Yes	+$1,397	04-11 18:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	15	$39.2K	20,568	20,568	+0	No	+$839	04-12 07:42
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$37.6K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$1	03-15 10:47
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	44	$37.5K	19,805	19,805	+0	No	+$2,011	10-27 00:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	93	$33.0K	18,122	17,622	+500	No	+$1,064	03-27 07:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	50	$29.2K	18,000	18,000	+0	No	+$185	03-29 19:54
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	39	$22.2K	11,851	11,851	+0	Yes	+$819	04-02 17:22
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	33	$20.3K	16,578	16,578	+0	open	—	10-28 00:02
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	36	$19.9K	11,587	10,343	+1,244	No	+$1,138	10-22 18:15
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	2	$19.5K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	10-28 11:11
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	3	$19.4K	20,187	4	+20,183	No	+$776	04-25 21:28
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	27	$19.4K	11,931	9,931	+2,000	Yes	+$2,344	03-30 18:35
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	8	$18.6K	19,140	0	+19,140	Yes	+$490	04-12 19:07
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	21	$16.6K	9,721	9,721	+0	No	-$75	03-29 17:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$15.6K	10,561	10,561	+0	Yes	+$3,411	04-07 22:34
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	5	$14.7K	7,701	7,701	-0	Yes	+$670	04-21 17:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$14.4K	9,820	9,820	+0	No	+$74	04-21 21:21
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	19	$13.3K	10,638	10,638	+0	No	+$633	04-07 22:39
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	17	$13.0K	7,922	6,422	+1,500	Yes	+$858	04-02 17:03
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	25	$11.6K	4,932	17,012	-12,080	No	-$2,821	04-08 18:18
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 80 99	41	$11.2K	6,250	5,193	+1,057	No	+$239	03-27 22:23
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	14	$10.8K	6,131	5,743	+388	No	+$1,051	04-01 10:05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$10.0K	5,758	5,758	+0	No	-$31	05-29 17:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	3	$9.0K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$570	05-20 15:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	24	$8.8K	9,853	10,353	-500	No	+$482	04-07 22:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:55:32	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	727	64¢	$463	0xfb3bda…
10-28 19:30:47	Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner	Inner Circle Esports	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x0dd5b2…
10-28 19:00:17	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0xf41dba…
10-28 17:41:11	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xc990fb…
10-28 17:16:28	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3995e1…
10-28 17:14:41	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0x9dae94…
10-28 17:14:41	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x2028f4…
10-28 17:10:08	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	258	99¢	$256	0x74b23c…
10-28 17:07:55	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0xb8778f…
10-28 17:05:37	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x36baa7…
10-28 15:05:43	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0x0d2431…
10-28 12:43:49	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,063	37¢	$759	0xcd8fbb…
10-28 12:07:32	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	No	SELL	209	100¢	$209	0x808815…
10-28 12:00:04	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3,012	36¢	$1,097	0x66df41…
10-28 11:11:59	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	10,000	98¢	$9,750	0x155201…
10-28 00:02:35	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,150	96¢	$1,104	0xd5dfc2…
10-27 23:44:35	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0xed664f…
10-27 23:42:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	349	96¢	$336	0xe03514…
10-27 23:42:02	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x160bdb…
10-27 23:41:29	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x4e937e…
10-27 23:41:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	656	96¢	$631	0x743f89…
10-27 23:04:05	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	678	92¢	$624	0xbec966…
10-27 23:03:54	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	452	92¢	$416	0xf1cef8…
10-27 23:03:44	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x4a2378…
10-27 23:03:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x2e44f5…
10-27 23:03:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x8e83f6…
10-27 23:03:33	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3,470	8¢	$278	0x6f06cf…
10-27 23:03:30	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	70	92¢	$64	0x2a9ca9…
10-27 23:03:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2,010	92¢	$1,849	0x5f19ce…
10-27 21:29:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	57	16¢	$9	0x85bbf7…
10-27 21:28:17	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xa90ab8…
10-27 21:27:08	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	27	83¢	$23	0xcf8b69…
10-27 21:27:02	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xc09646…
10-27 21:27:02	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	4,972	83¢	$4,127	0x7f0a5f…
10-27 21:27:00	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	4,937	16¢	$790	0x67a4a5…
10-27 20:02:20	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	249	15¢	$37	0x09b166…
10-27 20:02:15	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$75	0x7a5ee4…
10-27 20:02:11	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	81	15¢	$12	0xd8ebdb…
10-27 20:02:11	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x820fe1…
10-27 20:01:56	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb892cc…
10-27 20:01:50	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	163	15¢	$24	0x05f7f4…
10-27 20:01:09	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	319	15¢	$48	0x07cc4c…
10-27 20:01:06	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	6,152	15¢	$923	0xc494cf…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0xe3cb25…
10-27 20:01:02	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,257	63¢	$792	0xff0b19…
10-27 20:00:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	208	63¢	$131	0xd82e11…
10-27 20:00:57	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x991eb7…
10-27 20:00:56	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xe45785…
10-27 20:00:56	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	159	63¢	$100	0x9ac6d7…
10-27 20:00:54	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,995	63¢	$1,257	0x70cf33…
10-27 20:00:54	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	32	63¢	$20	0x1c1430…
10-27 20:00:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	245	63¢	$154	0xbd0850…
10-27 20:00:39	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	896	59¢	$529	0xaefdd9…
10-27 20:00:38	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	59¢	$590	0x78dd1e…
10-27 20:00:38	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	68	59¢	$40	0x43af75…
10-27 20:00:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	169	59¢	$100	0xe4cc4a…
10-27 20:00:35	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	508	59¢	$300	0x36e172…
10-27 20:00:30	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	443	59¢	$262	0x6844db…
10-27 19:59:48	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	15,267	42¢	$6,488	0x9afe43…
10-27 19:59:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	151	44¢	$66	0xea1e22…
10-27 19:59:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3be4c6…
10-27 19:05:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3,948	76¢	$3,000	0x8a264f…
10-27 19:04:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0x171269…
10-27 19:04:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0xca7e57…
10-27 19:01:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	395	76¢	$300	0x12f82f…
10-27 19:01:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x14a8ab…
10-27 19:01:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	32	76¢	$24	0xad47a7…
10-27 19:01:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	443	76¢	$337	0x00b3f9…
10-27 18:50:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3,209	76¢	$2,439	0xddfdf1…
10-27 18:50:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,620	76¢	$1,232	0x9df75a…
10-27 18:50:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	170	76¢	$130	0x81d87d…
10-27 00:50:45	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	No	SELL	19,585	100¢	$19,565	0xc695b1…
10-25 21:44:20	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	186	99¢	$183	0x307d02…
10-25 21:43:35	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x63fc1d…
10-25 21:43:09	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4,199	99¢	$4,145	0xd734f4…
10-25 21:41:50	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	1,147	100¢	$1,146	0xd98e80…
10-25 21:12:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	518	39¢	$202	0xe98078…
10-25 20:57:42	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Yes	BUY	1,000	73¢	$726	0x63c34c…
10-25 18:36:51	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	2,431	52¢	$1,264	0x278e2d…
10-25 18:36:41	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,123	52¢	$587	0xd48fcf…
10-25 17:58:29	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	70	28¢	$20	0x64abb9…
10-25 17:50:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	29	54¢	$15	0x5442ec…
10-25 17:48:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	467	54¢	$252	0x8efd47…
10-25 17:45:36	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x10a3da…
10-25 17:43:45	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	500	57¢	$285	0xa52228…
10-25 17:42:00	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xbf9a32…
10-25 17:42:00	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x0972cc…
10-25 17:41:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xb17a6f…
10-25 17:41:54	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x388fe1…
10-25 17:41:54	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	256	57¢	$146	0x0cd7d8…
10-25 17:41:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x1c1682…
10-25 17:41:47	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	1,433	57¢	$817	0xf854c5…
10-25 17:41:44	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xad92bb…
10-25 17:41:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xe9da2d…
10-25 17:41:32	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	373	57¢	$212	0xed6cc9…
10-25 17:41:30	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0x15c1fc…
10-25 17:41:29	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x6486be…
10-25 17:41:27	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	124	57¢	$71	0xc8b6ba…
10-25 16:31:33	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Yes	SELL	500	25¢	$125	0x786b2d…
10-25 16:02:11	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0xd621d8…