Long-Carving — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

40.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

234 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$586 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-26

last 08-12 03:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Politics

46% 44% -$39

Other

37% 48% -$18

Tech

9% 40% -$4

Crypto

7% 33% $0

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+37	$8	0¢	$0	-$8	05-28 10:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	3	$24	53	53	+0	open	—	07-02 05:52
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	7	$21	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 13:43
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	9	$17	55	55	+0	No	-$5	06-06 12:47
iran closes its airspace by june 15	7	$17	23	23	+0	Yes	-$2	06-07 21:36
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	5	$15	15	15	+0	open	—	06-13 05:58
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	8	$14	24	24	+0	No	-$1	06-05 13:59
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 05:49
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	4	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	07-01 14:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$13	25	25	+0	No	+$1	06-14 22:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$13	8	8	+0	No	+$1	06-10 06:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	4	$13	7	7	+0	Yes	+$1	05-28 17:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$12	9	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	3	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	07-01 14:48
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	7	$12	60	0	+60	No	-$12	05-29 13:31
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$0	06-01 00:30
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 05:53
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$12	8	8	+0	No	$0	07-01 14:48
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$12	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	05-29 06:18
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:48
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 05:51
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	4	$12	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	06-11 20:36
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	3	$11	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	07-01 14:48
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	3	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-15 13:36
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$10	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 05:51
will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	3	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	07-02 05:53
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	5	$10	41	0	+41	Yes	-$10	06-07 01:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 03:59:54	lol dnf ns 2026 08 12	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x69667a…
07-02 05:55:29	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6ce95b…
07-02 05:54:35	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xa194cd…
07-02 05:53:47	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x497fc4…
07-02 05:53:22	will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0xff923a…
07-02 05:53:02	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x23f6e1…
07-02 05:52:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x245a77…
07-02 05:52:13	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	53	39¢	$21	0x3cba7e…
07-02 05:51:46	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x7b97fc…
07-02 05:51:26	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x77ba48…
07-02 05:51:02	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x0e9eb3…
07-02 05:50:35	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xfb1239…
07-02 05:50:23	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x9f59e6…
07-02 05:50:11	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	SELL	14	32¢	$4	0x6acbe5…
07-02 05:50:02	Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x3f26f9…
07-02 05:49:41	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xdbbaf5…
07-02 05:49:13	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0xcfcefa…
07-01 14:49:04	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd75a36…
07-01 14:49:02	Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x627076…
07-01 14:49:01	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0xe6a85d…
07-01 14:48:59	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xc86915…
07-01 14:48:56	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xdf8508…
07-01 14:48:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x6043c2…
07-01 14:48:52	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x64c01d…
07-01 14:48:50	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x0e8285…
07-01 14:48:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x6e1895…
07-01 14:48:47	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x09271c…
07-01 14:48:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x020771…
07-01 14:48:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$6	0x447898…
07-01 14:48:43	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x3184c7…
07-01 14:48:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x1456e1…
06-25 02:22:32	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x16b165…
06-24 13:01:29	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x3e852e…
06-24 09:17:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb2d603…
06-24 09:09:38	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x09f487…
06-24 08:28:52	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5c921f…
06-22 22:04:38	Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x2998f0…
06-22 18:14:44	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xa0b148…
06-22 17:30:28	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x366c6e…
06-22 12:54:35	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xbff5f6…
06-22 12:53:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x994c60…
06-19 06:10:31	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x49b9d9…
06-15 20:23:48	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x5b4f18…
06-15 13:53:00	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa4bdd4…
06-15 13:36:57	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xf54718…
06-14 23:18:49	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe02473…
06-14 23:06:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x629d1d…
06-14 23:00:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x04d7c3…
06-14 22:05:22	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x1827b7…
06-14 22:03:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0xcbe12e…
06-14 22:00:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0x540d8c…
06-14 21:57:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0xa1057d…
06-13 15:45:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x9d458f…
06-13 15:29:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x29e8b0…
06-13 15:03:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x576900…
06-13 13:43:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x9ef65e…
06-13 10:35:34	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x6554f1…
06-13 09:53:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xa4574c…
06-13 09:53:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xa5c2cd…
06-13 09:51:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x9d7898…
06-13 09:02:57	will ethereum reach 2500 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdb224c…
06-13 06:26:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x793e71…
06-13 06:06:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x086063…
06-13 05:58:16	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x56697b…
06-13 05:51:48	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x1a27f1…
06-13 05:48:54	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x9183f0…
06-13 05:45:45	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf40cb7…
06-11 21:45:52	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x6eac4c…
06-11 21:10:12	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x390c0d…
06-11 20:36:51	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3f220a…
06-11 20:33:19	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc0e143…
06-11 20:18:31	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x3c8102…
06-11 19:12:43	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x281879…
06-11 17:58:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x9f2924…
06-11 17:33:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x598f5b…
06-11 17:13:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x67a28b…
06-11 17:13:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x40360c…
06-11 12:59:54	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x781cbd…
06-11 12:19:54	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x17dead…
06-11 12:19:52	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x8a446b…
06-11 11:04:52	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x59f883…
06-11 08:11:52	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x798aa4…
06-11 04:52:09	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa974a1…
06-11 04:35:45	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xfc1549…
06-11 03:13:58	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x61be89…
06-11 01:02:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x98ef37…
06-11 00:33:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x0c8ab5…
06-10 23:48:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x27f6f0…
06-10 23:32:07	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x4eeecd…
06-10 23:32:06	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x104056…
06-10 23:08:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xd55037…
06-10 23:08:21	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0fcf65…
06-10 22:50:09	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0xb5e807…
06-10 06:45:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0x8bb360…
06-10 06:40:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xbd89f7…
06-09 01:40:06	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x89c36e…
06-08 01:31:21	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9e396e…
06-08 01:31:19	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x3f681a…
06-08 01:31:16	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x222129…
06-07 23:18:48	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xa74ba9…