Cautious-Rose — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

3.7%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$2.07K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$27

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 06-01 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% $-1

Crypto

27% — —

Tech

16% — —

Politics

4% — —

Sports

3% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	-13	$-12	93¢	$-12	+$0	06-01 03:13
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	No	-7	$-7	95¢	$-7	$-0	06-01 03:13
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	06-01 03:13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	+4	$3	97¢	$4	+$0	06-01 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	8	$221	112	112	+0	open	—	04-17 04:16
crude oil all time high by march 31	4	$121	63	63	+0	open	—	03-24 05:28
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$79	43	43	+0	open	—	03-17 11:21
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$79	40	40	+0	open	—	03-09 07:46
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	2	$79	40	40	+0	open	—	03-11 14:38
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	2	$78	45	45	+0	Yes	$-1	03-11 14:40
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$77	40	40	+0	open	—	03-15 13:56
will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	2	$77	39	39	+0	open	—	03-13 10:40
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$76	38	38	+0	open	—	04-28 07:03
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	2	$74	49	49	+0	open	—	03-29 11:38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	04-04 14:50
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	04-13 07:48
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 140 159	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	04-17 04:16
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	2	$60	31	31	+0	open	—	04-17 04:17
will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	02-16 11:22
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	02-16 11:23
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	02-16 11:25
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	2	$52	26	26	+0	open	—	05-12 13:50
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	2	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	05-19 15:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$44	22	22	+0	open	—	04-22 09:12
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	04-07 03:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-27 00:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-23 01:18
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 00:48
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	1	$38	38	0	+38	open	—	02-24 11:32
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	04-22 09:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	05-08 01:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$28	14	14	+0	open	—	04-07 03:13
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$23	12	12	+0	open	—	05-25 04:52
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	1	$21	0	22	-22	open	—	05-28 04:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 03:13:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0x8f21d6…
06-01 03:13:35	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xac2a8f…
06-01 03:13:09	Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xdcf9cd…
06-01 03:13:04	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xbc1dd9…
05-28 14:30:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xb6cdeb…
05-28 14:30:03	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x124bcb…
05-28 14:29:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0xc6150f…
05-28 04:20:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x42172b…
05-28 04:20:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x15a5ad…
05-28 04:20:12	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2d2b77…
05-28 04:19:49	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xc0c822…
05-25 04:52:25	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0x3d469d…
05-25 02:40:11	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$11	0x0340b7…
05-22 16:27:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa33490…
05-22 08:03:32	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9d118c…
05-21 15:31:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x9b18fe…
05-21 11:35:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x041657…
05-21 11:35:26	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x02fd84…
05-20 03:15:01	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x417b05…
05-20 03:14:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x70b4d1…
05-19 15:12:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$25	0xcd11f9…
05-18 12:54:49	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xb7b9a1…
05-18 01:57:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x92c1a0…
05-17 03:41:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x46a20c…
05-15 04:34:17	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xb72feb…
05-15 04:34:17	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x75266f…
05-15 02:39:47	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x258d9c…
05-12 13:50:16	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xfb7bdd…
05-08 01:55:14	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x5f225d…
05-08 01:54:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x621cfd…
05-05 05:00:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdd2554…
05-05 04:56:52	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0bad14…
04-28 07:04:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7f41e5…
04-28 07:03:18	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x8b46f2…
04-25 07:41:02	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x5be66f…
04-25 07:40:40	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x88618f…
04-22 09:13:20	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5709ed…
04-22 09:12:44	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0x321e61…
04-22 09:12:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x22f952…
04-18 14:40:32	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x30a44d…
04-18 14:40:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x5ffbee…
04-17 04:17:12	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xbbb07e…
04-17 04:17:06	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x4e05e3…
04-17 04:16:50	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 140 159	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x53bb5c…
04-17 04:16:40	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 140 159	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x04f1de…
04-17 04:16:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x9cb8c1…
04-17 04:16:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x5fe62e…
04-17 04:15:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x216dd3…
04-15 12:40:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x93d24e…
04-15 12:40:12	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbe1d4a…
04-15 12:40:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x0ff7dd…
04-13 07:49:03	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x902b70…
04-13 07:48:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb29475…
04-13 07:48:29	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x4a033b…
04-10 12:23:17	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x98be81…
04-10 12:23:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x53ebc8…
04-08 14:53:41	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 draw	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x9a18c5…
04-08 14:53:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x369ca5…
04-08 14:52:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x02884a…
04-07 03:14:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x892a3b…
04-07 03:13:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xabb506…
04-07 03:13:33	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x61b6e6…
04-06 00:52:13	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xde18ae…
04-06 00:51:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xa2e936…
04-04 14:50:31	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x7971a8…
04-03 08:09:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x1747cd…
03-29 11:38:32	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	SELL	49	75¢	$36	0x0cb3be…
03-27 00:58:03	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	78¢	$38	0x2e0640…
03-27 00:56:01	btc updown 5m 1774572900	Up	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xed81e0…
03-27 00:55:25	btc updown 5m 1774572900	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x219ed8…
03-27 00:51:39	btc updown 5m 1774572600	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x8187fb…
03-27 00:48:47	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xcb2205…
03-27 00:48:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xde7287…
03-24 05:29:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x496aeb…
03-24 05:28:53	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xda07a7…
03-24 05:28:41	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	SELL	42	97¢	$41	0x3f22e4…
03-23 01:19:45	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x925ef8…
03-23 01:18:39	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xf0b9fe…
03-23 01:18:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x06a4b4…
03-20 23:26:09	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x4882ef…
03-20 23:25:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x529f42…
03-17 11:21:27	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0xc2eea1…
03-15 13:56:59	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	43	89¢	$38	0x29533b…
03-15 13:56:43	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x29ca44…
03-13 10:40:55	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe0e4f4…
03-13 10:40:41	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	SELL	39	100¢	$38	0x93346d…
03-11 14:40:41	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x666f16…
03-11 14:40:13	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	SELL	45	86¢	$38	0x63fd18…
03-11 14:39:23	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	45	88¢	$39	0x66d1b0…
03-11 14:38:03	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	40	100¢	$39	0xf6b92b…
03-09 07:46:51	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0xb3a04e…
03-09 07:46:11	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	SELL	40	100¢	$39	0xbdcfb3…
03-02 11:16:25	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0xf2cd69…
03-01 06:26:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x69949a…
02-24 11:32:48	will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xbff3f9…
02-16 11:26:05	btc updown 5m 1771241100	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x832818…
02-16 11:25:37	nba hou cha 2026 02 19	Rockets	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x04685e…
02-16 11:25:05	Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0xbd966e…
02-16 11:24:53	Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xef504f…
02-16 11:23:47	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x41cdf3…