Fair-Record — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$958

Unrealized P&L

+$771

Hit rate

73.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,414

lifetime

Volume

$243.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

$2.25K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 10:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

40% — —

Other

25% — —

Politics

19% 100% +$1,274

Tech

14% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-316

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+1,700	$648	76¢	$1.3K	+$653	06-22 20:46
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	+1,000	$740	87¢	$870	+$130	05-31 23:01
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+100	$62	46¢	$46	$-16	06-03 16:32
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+131	$26	22¢	$29	+$4	06-05 02:50
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	28¢	$3	$-0	06-02 20:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$16.0K	8,666	7,666	+1,000	open	—	03-01 02:09
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	42	$14.3K	11,939	5,856	+6,083	open	—	05-22 23:27
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	10	$14.2K	22,227	22,227	+0	open	—	02-18 15:19
btc updown 15m 1770668100	12	$12.6K	6,339	6,338	+0	open	—	02-09 20:29
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	16	$9.5K	9,754	9,704	+50	open	—	02-06 01:03
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	14	$8.4K	5,515	4,515	+1,000	open	—	02-01 05:23
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	7	$8.3K	4,412	4,412	+0	open	—	06-16 20:48
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$5.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-28 06:14
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	40	$5.7K	9,669	1,968	+7,701	open	—	05-22 23:49
btc updown 15m 1770423300	89	$5.4K	4,871	4,498	+373	open	—	02-07 00:29
will spacex starship flight test 12 superheavy explode 995 876 365 284 849 486 211 172 221 678 984 722	66	$5.2K	14,746	70	+14,676	open	—	04-20 08:22
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$5.2K	2,877	2,877	+0	open	—	03-13 23:25
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 9 994	4	$4.6K	2,423	2,423	+0	open	—	01-06 22:47
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 2 8	12	$4.6K	6,543	6,399	+144	open	—	02-06 00:03
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	5	$4.4K	4,619	0	+4,619	open	—	02-25 20:11
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$4.4K	2,546	2,546	+0	open	—	03-06 20:56
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	12	$4.3K	3,400	3,400	+0	open	—	03-23 21:01
will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to minnesota timberwolves	15	$4.3K	2,388	2,361	+27	open	—	02-05 17:06
will bitcoin dip to 64k february 2 8	4	$4.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-05 20:17
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	23	$3.7K	7,626	5,626	+2,000	open	—	02-20 01:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$3.6K	1,000	2,900	-1,900	open	—	06-16 17:29
will giannis antetokounmpo not be traded	36	$3.6K	3,135	3,135	+0	open	—	02-05 19:02
btc updown 15m 1770498900	33	$3.4K	2,827	2,789	+38	open	—	02-07 21:31
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	12	$3.0K	2,969	0	+2,969	open	—	01-04 01:40
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	5	$2.6K	2,844	569	+2,275	open	—	02-02 16:57
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	28	$2.5K	2,353	2,753	-399	open	—	05-22 01:19
will bitcoin dip to 66k february 2 8	2	$2.3K	4,600	2,000	+2,600	open	—	02-05 18:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$2.0K	1,200	1,185	+15	open	—	03-26 15:34
btc updown 15m 1770485400	19	$2.0K	2,836	955	+1,881	open	—	02-07 17:32
btc updown 15m 1770678900	50	$1.9K	1,566	1,541	+24	open	—	02-09 23:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 10:38:04	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x92424d…
06-26 17:32:52	Epstein client list released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	550	1¢	$7	0x529550…
06-23 01:01:08	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	197	70¢	$138	0xda1f9d…
06-22 23:32:41	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd63b27…
06-22 20:46:38	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	724	48¢	$346	0xc8a9ab…
06-22 20:12:01	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	400	71¢	$284	0xb4031a…
06-21 17:58:28	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	217	40¢	$87	0x90b019…
06-21 17:57:52	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	75	40¢	$30	0x08d3f2…
06-21 17:56:20	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	1,298	40¢	$521	0x996ae8…
06-21 15:39:19	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,838	2¢	$54	0xde08c6…
06-21 15:39:02	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,463	2¢	$25	0x9ac3ca…
06-21 12:12:31	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,426	2¢	$24	0xaf044a…
06-21 12:03:14	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	2,409	26¢	$626	0x06661e…
06-20 00:15:04	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x02b17c…
06-19 22:21:16	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	500	54¢	$270	0x58341c…
06-19 13:46:25	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x969e53…
06-18 22:41:43	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	91	73¢	$66	0x9a9a09…
06-18 22:39:07	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0x942f3e…
06-18 15:49:55	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x39ed5b…
06-17 22:00:44	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	222	74¢	$165	0x462641…
06-17 20:09:59	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x53fdbb…
06-17 19:58:40	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	333	84¢	$280	0x123961…
06-16 20:48:47	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x1749b8…
06-16 20:48:34	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xde2c15…
06-16 20:48:22	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	3,402	100¢	$3,398	0xbb0b65…
06-16 20:48:11	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0xbee5c6…
06-16 20:48:04	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x557ce6…
06-16 19:44:25	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	165	70¢	$116	0x879311…
06-16 19:43:35	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	117	100¢	$116	0xb05ca9…
06-16 17:31:47	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	3,247	89¢	$2,890	0xf09939…
06-16 17:29:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,900	100¢	$2,886	0x8b16b0…
06-16 17:28:26	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0xa51cc9…
06-14 21:45:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	500	25¢	$126	0xf9dc59…
06-14 11:20:46	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x49d893…
06-14 11:20:03	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	1,000	51¢	$510	0x54d950…
06-14 10:42:21	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	1,071	80¢	$857	0x70443e…
06-09 11:57:45	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xbdcc80…
06-08 15:01:18	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	SELL	485	53¢	$257	0x555e5b…
06-07 22:29:24	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	BUY	485	55¢	$267	0x05c7c1…
06-07 17:52:46	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	49	29¢	$14	0x49139f…
06-07 16:02:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xb0de25…
06-07 14:22:19	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xdff99d…
06-07 14:22:19	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,085	5¢	$55	0xbb5a1a…
06-07 14:21:51	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	142	29¢	$41	0xebd2a1…
06-07 14:19:46	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x019106…
06-07 13:54:39	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xcb43e1…
06-07 13:54:18	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x0078a6…
06-07 13:52:07	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	110	5¢	$6	0x78add8…
06-07 12:49:45	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0xa8eda8…
06-07 12:44:31	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	SELL	450	45¢	$202	0xb8e905…
06-07 11:49:16	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	450	46¢	$207	0xb3df46…
06-07 10:27:09	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8,325	1¢	$94	0x6d5efa…
06-07 10:26:33	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xfe984c…
06-07 10:26:33	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xcb7740…
06-07 10:26:33	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7f0aa5…
06-07 10:26:33	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	76	5¢	$4	0x5b26d0…
06-07 10:26:33	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x35f182…
06-07 10:24:22	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	766	32¢	$241	0xa36fc1…
06-06 00:48:39	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	894	29¢	$259	0x3b7836…
06-05 02:50:31	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	45¢	$225	0xea21bb…
06-04 07:16:52	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x097a22…
06-03 19:24:09	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	750	64¢	$480	0xf91a4c…
06-03 16:32:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x26b892…
06-03 16:22:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	63¢	$74	0xb7ed5f…
06-02 23:00:54	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	40¢	$43	0x4bf9d6…
06-02 20:36:56	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	46¢	$52	0x134658…
06-02 20:30:53	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xb30a7e…
06-02 20:23:46	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	49¢	$51	0x638d7f…
06-02 20:23:45	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	47¢	$127	0x77366e…
06-02 20:23:38	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	244	25¢	$62	0x439fb2…
06-01 21:22:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40,000	0¢	$120	0xb00f97…
06-01 21:21:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200,000	0¢	$600	0xa91704…
06-01 21:10:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200,000	0¢	$600	0x1ed1b1…
06-01 21:07:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x06098d…
05-31 23:01:37	Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	74¢	$740	0xd02f38…
05-31 10:53:30	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	Yes	BUY	8,040	4¢	$338	0xfebdd4…
05-31 05:27:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	70¢	$700	0xe86680…
05-28 01:08:01	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	Yes	BUY	428	1¢	$3	0xcef139…
05-22 23:49:09	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	131	12¢	$16	0x186547…
05-22 23:47:38	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	760	12¢	$91	0x59fa95…
05-22 23:47:36	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	269	12¢	$32	0xa8b565…
05-22 23:30:32	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x2f5905…
05-22 23:30:11	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x6851ff…
05-22 23:27:07	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x666e81…
05-22 23:27:02	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x2c5c5a…
05-22 23:27:00	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	584	96¢	$558	0xca3a6a…
05-22 23:26:59	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	17	44¢	$7	0x1ec156…
05-22 23:26:31	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	574	46¢	$264	0xa5acee…
05-22 23:24:07	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	787	60¢	$472	0x2830b1…
05-22 23:22:17	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	188	65¢	$122	0x92a6cc…
05-22 23:21:31	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	1,000	96¢	$960	0x5181e1…
05-22 22:57:00	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	500	64¢	$322	0x4ae913…
05-22 22:56:37	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	210	63¢	$132	0x9136a8…
05-22 22:56:32	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	480	61¢	$295	0x09ba60…
05-22 22:56:16	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	800	94¢	$755	0xcbf425…
05-22 22:50:26	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x4779cd…
05-22 22:50:12	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	326	64¢	$209	0x6029a0…
05-22 22:50:07	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	306	65¢	$198	0x04c079…
05-22 22:49:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	98	95¢	$93	0xa06183…
05-22 22:49:46	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	SELL	575	90¢	$519	0xfc6b02…