Belated-Democracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$149

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

92.9%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$42.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$151

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-26 11:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Politics

90% 92% +$131

Other

9% 100% +$17

Crypto

0% 50% $0

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 67% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-26).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+14	$6	16¢	$2	-$4	05-23 14:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President by April 30?	52	$28.5K	14,689	14,248	+441	No	+$48	04-21 04:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$2.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	+$0	04-06 13:06
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	14	$2.1K	977	1,122	-145	Yes	+$13	05-14 15:14
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	6	$1.0K	515	515	+0	No	+$4	06-28 13:12
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	1	$886	900	0	+900	No	+$14	05-13 13:02
will wti reach 130 in july 2026	4	$772	392	392	+0	No	+$5	07-18 03:26
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet?	9	$452	270	270	+0	No	+$63	05-14 12:59
Will Trump's remarks not air?	3	$398	200	200	+0	No	+$2	05-14 10:39
trump out as president by march 31	7	$380	194	194	+0	No	+$1	03-14 14:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	12	$325	165	165	+0	No	+$3	05-09 00:39
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	3	$324	165	165	+0	No	+$3	04-27 12:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$323	166	166	+0	No	+$3	05-13 14:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	3	$317	160	160	+0	No	+$0	04-16 05:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	2	$317	160	160	+0	No	+$0	04-19 14:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$293	150	150	+0	Yes	+$1	04-10 14:32
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$276	141	136	+6	Yes	+$0	03-13 14:09
Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	8	$252	171	93	+78	No	+$12	05-14 22:23
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	3	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-09 07:21
Netanyahu out by June 30?	22	$181	364	0	+364	No	+$1	05-31 09:05
will trump talk to nicols maduro in march 958	8	$158	80	80	+0	No	+$1	03-30 20:51
will trump say jesus this week march 8	1	$141	141	0	+141	Yes	+$0	03-10 08:31
Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet?	4	$136	99	40	+59	No	+$3	05-15 00:07
Iran leadership change by March 13?	1	$134	134	0	+134	No	+$0	03-15 14:29
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	9	$118	161	41	+120	No	+$3	05-15 02:50
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	4	$89	73	20	+53	No	+$4	05-15 00:24
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 20 338	1	$87	87	0	+87	No	+$0	03-20 13:34
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	03-25 14:16
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt6	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	03-04 13:40
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$58	30	30	+0	No	+$0	01-20 07:11
will ethereum dip to 1200 in february 2026	3	$58	30	30	+0	No	-$1	02-05 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 11:39:58	will ng reach 4 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xfd1d74…
07-26 11:39:46	will ng reach 4 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb6560d…
07-23 15:18:37	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7be056…
07-18 03:26:13	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	SELL	197	99¢	$195	0x3c1ecc…
07-14 13:14:32	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	197	98¢	$192	0x411a57…
07-09 13:01:50	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	SELL	195	99¢	$193	0xecfa9e…
07-07 17:33:41	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	195	98¢	$191	0x63ac67…
06-28 13:12:28	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	166	100¢	$165	0xbf311f…
06-23 12:40:22	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	166	99¢	$164	0x98315a…
06-21 13:19:02	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xbf2f06…
06-21 13:16:32	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x62fef4…
06-12 15:31:12	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x117d73…
06-12 14:10:16	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3ae605…
06-12 08:38:34	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x05c3a8…
06-09 07:21:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	68	99¢	$68	0x219e6d…
06-09 07:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x49e172…
06-09 03:46:03	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa88ef8…
06-08 05:49:42	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt1b	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x4c6d9b…
06-08 05:27:06	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt1b	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xf5a802…
06-06 18:17:13	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4b4834…
06-06 10:47:07	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xae2c2b…
06-06 03:29:10	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x474c0d…
06-05 16:43:10	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3f3f41…
06-04 20:14:03	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xee4f68…
06-04 16:35:24	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5fe9af…
06-04 13:23:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x47f896…
06-04 13:22:43	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x733f25…
06-04 13:19:31	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xfe3c62…
05-31 09:05:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x8915f4…
05-28 13:43:37	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xfae374…
05-28 13:43:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf1db8b…
05-28 13:42:28	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x65e5c5…
05-28 13:42:07	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$8	0x6a48a3…
05-28 13:41:43	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xc9fc7e…
05-28 13:40:47	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x95f66a…
05-28 13:40:15	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x66c097…
05-26 05:33:30	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x159851…
05-25 15:56:47	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x8882e2…
05-25 15:52:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xbfe859…
05-25 15:39:48	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x9d11c2…
05-25 15:25:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xb661d2…
05-25 15:10:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x694f9d…
05-25 15:01:17	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x22b17e…
05-25 14:35:17	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xe3ef65…
05-25 14:17:09	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x509a28…
05-25 14:12:55	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xa1ee38…
05-25 13:23:11	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x4b78f3…
05-25 13:08:59	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xfd54d1…
05-25 13:08:59	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x1abf2f…
05-25 12:53:44	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x51a4c7…
05-25 12:23:22	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x89e55b…
05-25 11:53:07	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x76a533…
05-25 11:50:07	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x27dffa…
05-25 11:43:32	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xf0a629…
05-25 11:26:16	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x856e6c…
05-25 11:11:02	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xefc615…
05-25 10:27:08	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	119	97¢	$114	0x810a79…
05-23 14:22:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x6638fe…
05-23 11:10:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	169	99¢	$167	0x477cb9…
05-22 09:06:56	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	169	98¢	$166	0x4810f2…
05-21 13:23:37	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0b4459…
05-21 13:22:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$177	0x4a2a41…
05-20 07:40:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe2ec93…
05-20 06:56:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$176	0xed97fa…
05-16 08:39:20	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x871eb0…
05-16 08:33:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xe7639f…
05-15 02:50:57	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x76bc23…
05-15 01:55:08	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7515d7…
05-15 01:52:09	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb87393…
05-15 01:38:09	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x3838e4…
05-15 00:28:46	Will Trump say "Dynasty" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x85ef11…
05-15 00:24:01	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x934dba…
05-15 00:07:37	Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x4688c3…
05-14 22:23:35	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0xf444f4…
05-14 22:23:33	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x60a259…
05-14 21:52:43	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x4d0e71…
05-14 21:52:07	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xf5d5cb…
05-14 21:13:51	Will Trump say "Ping-pong" or "Ping Pong" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x22ee03…
05-14 20:32:41	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5cccd5…
05-14 20:10:09	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0x0096c1…
05-14 20:05:04	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xea1053…
05-14 17:49:46	Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$19	0x3d16ee…
05-14 17:16:50	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0xd279df…
05-14 17:16:41	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0xf1dfd9…
05-14 17:15:05	Will Trump say "Gun" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x6e1c73…
05-14 16:24:01	Will Trump say "Ping-pong" or "Ping Pong" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf790e1…
05-14 16:10:38	Will Trump say "Sovereign" or "Sovereignty" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x560701…
05-14 16:10:27	Will Trump say "Hottest" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x99fdee…
05-14 16:09:54	Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x04eec6…
05-14 16:09:45	Will Trump say "Tiger" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x73b620…
05-14 16:09:33	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x0eb021…
05-14 15:49:53	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x654e06…
05-14 15:45:54	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x747a1b…
05-14 15:25:22	Will Trump say "Dynasty" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x132db5…
05-14 15:24:31	Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x626ad5…
05-14 15:24:22	Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$18	0x6db8b6…
05-14 15:23:58	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0xb2c6c7…
05-14 15:17:08	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	33	93¢	$31	0x551ad2…
05-14 15:14:41	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x450b5f…
05-14 15:04:11	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,000	99¢	$991	0x888751…