Itchy-Cradle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$219

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

Trades

869

lifetime

Volume

$623.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$717

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-10 05:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 0% $-31

Politics

35% 100% +$249

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	27	$51.5K	39,601	13,500	+26,101	open	—	01-22 12:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	54	$43.1K	35,837	8,473	+27,364	open	—	02-26 13:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$41.9K	21,290	21,290	+0	open	—	04-23 18:40
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	53	$36.3K	20,418	17,419	+2,998	open	—	01-23 06:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	8	$28.9K	11,755	17,348	-5,593	open	—	06-29 08:07
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	13	$27.1K	21,155	6,500	+14,655	open	—	06-14 21:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	69	$26.8K	27,525	3,028	+24,498	open	—	03-23 11:10
will khamenei leave iran by friday	25	$25.7K	18,011	7,944	+10,067	open	—	01-09 14:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	55	$23.3K	12,736	12,736	+0	open	—	02-24 21:07
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	19	$23.1K	22,551	800	+21,752	open	—	02-05 16:04
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	13	$21.4K	10,968	10,968	+0	open	—	02-03 22:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	19	$21.3K	21,331	0	+21,331	open	—	04-13 07:04
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	10	$19.3K	19,414	0	+19,414	open	—	04-13 09:01
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	25	$19.2K	10,385	10,385	+0	open	—	07-08 14:30
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	25	$17.4K	9,198	9,548	-350	open	—	03-25 10:03
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	6	$15.3K	0	15,563	-15,563	open	—	06-06 10:02
will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q4 2025	1	$13.0K	13,036	0	+13,036	open	—	01-02 14:02
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	24	$10.6K	9,065	3,788	+5,277	open	—	04-27 11:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$10.6K	5,372	5,372	+0	open	—	05-19 11:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$9.7K	4,925	4,925	+0	open	—	04-22 18:51
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	7	$9.4K	8,118	3,113	+5,004	open	—	08-10 05:15
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	12	$8.3K	9,166	0	+9,166	open	—	07-31 09:35
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	35	$7.6K	4,058	3,833	+225	open	—	02-18 19:48
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	1	$7.0K	7,008	0	+7,008	open	—	04-10 12:30
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt7 in march kbha 359 699	2	$6.0K	6,321	0	+6,321	open	—	04-10 12:30
will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	7	$5.5K	2,817	2,817	+0	open	—	03-10 14:05
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt6 in march	1	$5.4K	5,404	0	+5,404	open	—	04-10 12:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	3	$4.6K	4,660	0	+4,660	No	+$99	05-06 09:29
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	5	$4.5K	2,438	2,438	+0	open	—	02-03 09:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	26	$4.4K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	05-10 11:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 05:15:34	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	SELL	1,600	92¢	$1,472	0x26f979…
08-09 18:12:25	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	SELL	31	92¢	$29	0xddd079…
08-04 14:26:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	3,210	5¢	$146	0xa870c8…
08-04 13:28:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	3,210	6¢	$183	0x86a9ee…
08-03 19:27:48	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x65f668…
08-03 15:27:21	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	SELL	1,476	88¢	$1,299	0x519ffb…
08-01 14:54:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	929	94¢	$874	0xca215c…
07-31 09:35:41	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	2,500	91¢	$2,275	0xebd60f…
07-31 07:17:32	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	50	25¢	$13	0x70cdd2…
07-30 16:20:35	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	500	92¢	$461	0x26dc0a…
07-30 16:20:26	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	66	92¢	$60	0xebeaa4…
07-30 16:20:26	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	2,440	92¢	$2,245	0xcaca76…
07-30 14:41:47	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	1,486	83¢	$1,233	0x9f2e50…
07-30 14:41:32	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,156	91¢	$1,052	0x944e1c…
07-30 13:44:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x7427c5…
07-30 11:47:23	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x57d7da…
07-30 10:04:11	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	1,622	80¢	$1,303	0x14d022…
07-30 10:03:39	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$909	0x8d31d8…
07-30 10:03:33	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x088c2e…
07-30 09:28:53	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	435	89¢	$387	0xd6244b…
07-30 09:28:05	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5,010	81¢	$4,058	0x7aba0d…
07-30 09:26:41	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	913	88¢	$803	0x799888…
07-30 09:25:48	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	75	82¢	$62	0x597d22…
07-30 09:25:47	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	53	82¢	$44	0x4c0f34…
07-30 09:19:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	71¢	$710	0xb13ca3…
07-30 09:13:50	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	460	72¢	$331	0x5acae5…
07-30 09:13:18	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x9d5890…
07-22 14:36:34	will revoluts valuation hit high 110b by july 31 20260630204859524	Yes	BUY	278	5¢	$14	0x6d5082…
07-22 14:36:06	will revoluts valuation hit high 110b by july 31 20260630204859524	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xed4226…
07-22 14:35:57	will revoluts valuation hit high 110b by july 31 20260630204859524	Yes	BUY	220	2¢	$4	0x7caeee…
07-22 14:35:49	will revoluts valuation hit high 110b by july 31 20260630204859524	Yes	BUY	304	1¢	$2	0xa09623…
07-22 14:26:22	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	SELL	1,010	99¢	$1,000	0x5db4c1…
07-22 01:13:04	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x7ccfdf…
07-22 01:12:00	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x791d06…
07-21 07:31:18	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x203cf7…
07-17 07:40:19	will trump meet with giorgia meloni in july 2026 20260626153701912	Yes	SELL	70	84¢	$58	0x0347b0…
07-13 12:57:56	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xbfd798…
07-08 14:30:14	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,245	97¢	$1,209	0xdd81e6…
07-08 10:44:50	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x075ea3…
07-08 10:44:49	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xdb3efe…
07-08 07:22:40	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	630	97¢	$611	0x4af565…
07-07 19:53:20	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,899	96¢	$1,825	0xcca663…
07-07 17:38:40	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,208	98¢	$1,190	0xa0ffbc…
07-07 17:19:14	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	98¢	$1,478	0x4959b5…
07-07 17:12:23	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x681133…
07-07 16:02:41	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,769	99¢	$2,728	0xe907f9…
07-07 15:59:31	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	98¢	$70	0x91953c…
07-07 15:24:22	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	686	99¢	$676	0xa21e0f…
07-07 13:28:07	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	330	80¢	$264	0x4e0e43…
07-07 13:28:07	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	500	80¢	$400	0x4a4eca…
07-07 13:27:14	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0xa06153…
07-07 13:27:13	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	334	45¢	$150	0xf52493…
07-07 13:27:07	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0xafea5b…
07-07 13:26:37	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	413	50¢	$206	0xc7a195…
07-07 13:22:14	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xce1ceb…
07-07 13:21:37	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x54bed3…
07-07 13:21:08	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd37262…
07-07 13:17:38	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	124	79¢	$98	0xf093a7…
07-07 13:14:19	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	292	20¢	$57	0xe7b6a2…
07-07 13:13:46	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	130	20¢	$26	0xb17a27…
07-07 13:13:34	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	422	32¢	$134	0x839778…
07-07 12:58:20	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	124	39¢	$48	0xba1bbd…
07-07 12:35:08	will trump meet with giorgia meloni in july 2026 20260626153701912	Yes	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0x7666af…
07-07 12:33:58	will trump meet with keir starmer in july 2026 20260626153701910	Yes	BUY	92	98¢	$90	0x86d1a7…
07-07 11:54:07	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	83¢	$52	0xe41e6a…
07-07 11:53:52	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	76¢	$36	0x750a1f…
07-07 11:53:50	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	76¢	$33	0xf88bde…
07-07 11:53:50	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc12ded…
07-07 11:53:49	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,573	90¢	$7,715	0xbabb53…
07-07 11:53:49	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	76¢	$49	0x80c017…
07-07 11:53:49	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x00bdb0…
07-07 11:53:43	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,232	76¢	$936	0x44b29a…
07-07 11:53:41	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	355	60¢	$214	0xc29bae…
07-06 21:08:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0x7b1100…
07-06 21:07:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0xcfc754…
07-06 21:07:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xdc9c45…
07-06 21:07:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x98f8af…
07-06 21:07:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x00a77e…
07-03 23:40:58	iran successfully targets shipping on july 1 20260625225210242	No	BUY	287	100¢	$287	0x8b25ff…
07-03 17:02:28	iran successfully targets shipping on july 1 20260625225210242	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0034df…
07-03 00:46:52	iran successfully targets shipping on july 1 20260625225210242	No	BUY	211	100¢	$211	0x077ea6…
07-02 19:03:22	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	484	100¢	$484	0x68baad…
07-02 12:34:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x806116…
07-02 09:23:35	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x28c2af…
06-30 20:06:16	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	360	99¢	$358	0x5b5abb…
06-30 07:59:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x4fc980…
06-30 07:59:04	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	BUY	1,021	98¢	$1,000	0x6a9342…
06-30 07:48:55	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x0f24a4…
06-30 07:48:44	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	113	92¢	$104	0x975d5a…
06-29 14:02:56	SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	No	BUY	207	99¢	$205	0x1a7e37…
06-29 08:07:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	8,511	100¢	$8,503	0x20e2ea…
06-19 09:12:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2,837	100¢	$2,828	0x502caf…
06-14 21:50:54	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	3,500	99¢	$3,462	0xb1a088…
06-14 21:49:03	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,935	0x3a92d9…
06-14 21:48:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,971	0xbf6cf5…
06-14 21:47:49	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xc0cba7…
06-14 21:47:36	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,014	99¢	$1,000	0x74eefd…
06-14 21:46:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$995	0xc34795…
06-11 15:13:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	310	89¢	$276	0x204829…
06-09 05:27:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6,564	99¢	$6,472	0x477678…