Itchy-Cradle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$219

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

Trades

783

lifetime

Volume

$580.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$741

Open exposure

$196

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-30 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

66% 0% $-31

Politics

34% 100% +$249

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-210	$-191	94¢	$-196	$-5	06-11 15:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	27	$51.5K	39,601	13,500	+26,101	open	—	01-22 12:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	54	$43.1K	35,837	8,473	+27,364	open	—	02-26 13:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$41.9K	21,290	21,290	+0	open	—	04-23 18:40
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	53	$36.3K	20,418	17,419	+2,998	open	—	01-23 06:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	8	$28.9K	11,755	17,348	-5,593	open	—	06-29 08:07
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	13	$27.1K	21,155	6,500	+14,655	open	—	06-14 21:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	69	$26.8K	27,525	3,028	+24,498	open	—	03-23 11:10
will khamenei leave iran by friday	25	$25.7K	18,011	7,944	+10,067	open	—	01-09 14:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	55	$23.3K	12,736	12,736	+0	open	—	02-24 21:07
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	19	$23.1K	22,551	800	+21,752	open	—	02-05 16:04
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	13	$21.4K	10,968	10,968	+0	open	—	02-03 22:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	19	$21.3K	21,331	0	+21,331	open	—	04-13 07:04
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	10	$19.3K	19,414	0	+19,414	open	—	04-13 09:01
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	25	$17.4K	9,198	9,548	-350	open	—	03-25 10:03
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	6	$15.3K	0	15,563	-15,563	open	—	06-06 10:02
will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q4 2025	1	$13.0K	13,036	0	+13,036	open	—	01-02 14:02
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	24	$10.6K	9,065	3,788	+5,277	open	—	04-27 11:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$10.6K	5,372	5,372	+0	open	—	05-19 11:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$9.7K	4,925	4,925	+0	open	—	04-22 18:51
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	35	$7.6K	4,058	3,833	+225	open	—	02-18 19:48
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	1	$7.0K	7,008	0	+7,008	open	—	04-10 12:30
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt7 in march kbha 359 699	2	$6.0K	6,321	0	+6,321	open	—	04-10 12:30
will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	7	$5.5K	2,817	2,817	+0	open	—	03-10 14:05
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt6 in march	1	$5.4K	5,404	0	+5,404	open	—	04-10 12:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	3	$4.6K	4,660	0	+4,660	No	+$99	05-06 09:29
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	5	$4.5K	2,438	2,438	+0	open	—	02-03 09:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	26	$4.4K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	05-10 11:57
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	8	$4.2K	2,481	2,481	+0	open	—	02-06 14:49
will m5 be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	17	$3.9K	2,694	2,694	+0	open	—	03-04 15:28
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt5 in march	1	$3.8K	3,796	0	+3,796	open	—	04-10 12:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 20:06:16	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	360	99¢	$358	0x5b5abb…
06-30 07:59:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x4fc980…
06-30 07:59:04	is earth flat 20260608195956112	No	BUY	1,021	98¢	$1,000	0x6a9342…
06-30 07:48:55	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x0f24a4…
06-30 07:48:44	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	113	92¢	$104	0x975d5a…
06-29 14:02:56	SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	No	BUY	207	99¢	$205	0x1a7e37…
06-29 08:07:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	8,511	100¢	$8,503	0x20e2ea…
06-19 09:12:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2,837	100¢	$2,828	0x502caf…
06-14 21:50:54	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	3,500	99¢	$3,462	0xb1a088…
06-14 21:49:03	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,935	0x3a92d9…
06-14 21:48:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,971	0xbf6cf5…
06-14 21:47:49	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xc0cba7…
06-14 21:47:36	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,014	99¢	$1,000	0x74eefd…
06-14 21:46:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$995	0xc34795…
06-11 15:13:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	310	89¢	$276	0x204829…
06-09 05:27:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6,564	99¢	$6,472	0x477678…
06-08 13:22:52	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1,162	99¢	$1,145	0xd99677…
06-08 12:42:37	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	182	99¢	$179	0x84ce04…
06-08 12:33:30	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x682cff…
06-08 12:02:03	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	548	99¢	$540	0x75c6e0…
06-08 09:14:21	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	88	99¢	$86	0x533105…
06-08 09:09:19	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	4,497	99¢	$4,434	0xfc55d8…
06-07 07:54:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	3,563	98¢	$3,499	0xfcea55…
06-06 10:02:48	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	3,584	99¢	$3,563	0xc8d8a5…
06-02 07:39:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1,142	98¢	$1,120	0xd62b7a…
06-01 07:10:03	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfad498…
05-28 19:39:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x1268b8…
05-28 19:37:52	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2,500	97¢	$2,430	0xa3a3a5…
05-28 19:36:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	486	97¢	$473	0x719a5d…
05-28 19:36:25	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,660	97¢	$1,612	0x259fe5…
05-28 17:26:00	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	1,377	98¢	$1,357	0x339958…
05-28 16:41:23	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x3190bd…
05-28 16:15:55	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	3,116	98¢	$3,069	0x276a5c…
05-28 14:17:02	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	7,396	97¢	$7,152	0xc783f7…
05-28 14:16:38	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	7,284	98¢	$7,156	0x9ea5e8…
05-19 11:45:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	4,029	99¢	$3,993	0x98da45…
05-19 11:42:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1,343	99¢	$1,331	0x7f58a1…
05-18 08:31:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	868	99¢	$859	0x8a7908…
05-15 14:46:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1,973	99¢	$1,955	0x613816…
05-15 14:44:31	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	SELL	168	34¢	$57	0x8f3904…
05-15 14:15:35	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xde123e…
05-15 14:08:19	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	68	27¢	$18	0x9b19a6…
05-10 11:57:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	596	89¢	$531	0x8e1de1…
05-10 11:57:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x4d0779…
05-10 11:54:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x13bab9…
05-10 11:50:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xafb0a8…
05-10 11:47:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xa51e61…
05-10 11:46:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x21feb4…
05-10 11:42:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	117	89¢	$104	0x19c4dd…
05-10 11:41:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x076f48…
05-10 11:22:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x196de3…
05-10 11:21:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x945138…
05-10 11:21:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	34	89¢	$30	0x8d70f6…
05-10 11:17:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x43375b…
05-10 11:15:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xfe7020…
05-10 09:41:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xaa97d6…
05-10 09:38:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xe1034f…
05-10 09:35:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0x40b34b…
05-10 09:27:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	112	89¢	$100	0xee687b…
05-10 09:23:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	120	89¢	$107	0x29138e…
05-10 08:54:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	83	89¢	$74	0x76d205…
05-10 08:51:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	22	89¢	$20	0x7d06bd…
05-10 08:47:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xa49aaf…
05-10 08:46:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	989	89¢	$880	0xb3cbb2…
05-10 08:29:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4cbed8…
05-10 08:21:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	60	89¢	$53	0xeb1cdc…
05-10 08:17:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	53	89¢	$47	0x13efd4…
05-06 15:25:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	2,458	96¢	$2,357	0xf5bb28…
05-06 15:20:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	2,500	87¢	$2,175	0xb184c1…
05-06 15:19:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1,141	96¢	$1,092	0xbf77df…
05-06 13:43:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2,300	73¢	$1,679	0x33afdb…
05-06 09:29:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	2,310	98¢	$2,264	0xd73c3f…
05-06 09:06:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0xa277e7…
05-06 08:56:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x51b77c…
05-06 08:56:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	2,333	98¢	$2,281	0xa59486…
05-06 08:54:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0x85d28a…
05-06 08:54:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0xab3605…
04-27 11:46:16	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	248	98¢	$243	0x7764e9…
04-27 11:43:54	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,023	98¢	$1,990	0x610bcd…
04-23 18:40:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	19,790	99¢	$19,652	0x5da485…
04-22 18:51:56	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2,531	97¢	$2,445	0xfa781c…
04-22 18:51:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,462	99¢	$2,445	0xcd3547…
04-18 07:33:46	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	169	99¢	$167	0xdbab38…
04-17 13:23:24	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	109	99¢	$107	0x61a8d0…
04-17 13:22:54	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	393	98¢	$387	0xa91eb1…
04-17 13:22:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$494	0x5432a6…
04-17 13:20:08	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	727	98¢	$714	0x824a29…
04-17 13:19:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$494	0xae87cb…
04-16 07:51:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	117	89¢	$104	0xd95207…
04-15 20:49:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	117	87¢	$102	0x10bf61…
04-15 20:48:58	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	45	76¢	$34	0xebe5aa…
04-15 13:21:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1,014	98¢	$992	0x71da47…
04-15 11:02:14	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x6f7708…
04-15 11:02:12	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0xac2084…
04-15 07:41:56	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	94¢	$1,404	0xd9893f…
04-15 07:41:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,462	99¢	$2,433	0x9e0e92…
04-14 11:32:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	16,764	98¢	$16,496	0x3c75b1…
04-14 11:15:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	3,012	98¢	$2,961	0x526551…
04-14 08:37:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,625	98¢	$4,551	0x719608…
04-13 15:00:27	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x613aeb…