Informal-Expertise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$829

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved

Trades

5,512

lifetime

Volume

$112.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 07-28 10:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

72% 67% +$728

Other

21% 100% +$149

Crypto

6% 38% $-48

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 240 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	333	$9.6K	1,260,315	551,121	+709,194	open	—	04-10 15:08
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	188	$7.7K	10,725	12,642	-1,917	open	—	04-22 01:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	110	$5.6K	29,147	34,619	-5,472	open	—	04-08 00:35
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	38	$4.0K	8,304	8,404	-100	open	—	04-08 13:20
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 18 2026	49	$3.4K	2,116	1,794	+322	open	—	04-18 06:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	164	$3.2K	44,470	50,733	-6,263	open	—	05-31 12:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	93	$3.1K	19,626	33,843	-14,216	open	—	05-16 01:33
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	34	$3.1K	2,551	2,451	+100	open	—	04-22 13:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	75	$2.3K	6,751	7,417	-666	open	—	05-19 22:23
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	97	$2.2K	4,088	4,553	-465	open	—	04-24 16:43
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	80	$2.1K	11,904	12,271	-367	open	—	06-18 13:45
Fed rate hike in 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,937	1,937	+0	open	—	06-10 12:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	30	$1.9K	2,403	2,403	+0	open	—	04-21 03:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	70	$1.9K	17,201	20,565	-3,363	No	+$707	05-08 01:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	45	$1.7K	888	1,513	-625	open	—	06-04 15:01
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	24	$1.7K	4,851	5,651	-799	open	—	06-13 11:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	7	$1.6K	900	900	+0	open	—	04-05 16:31
iran closes its airspace by june 15	4	$1.5K	1,208	1,208	+0	open	—	06-08 03:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	74	$1.4K	4,540	6,645	-2,105	open	—	04-29 22:52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	23	$1.4K	840	785	+55	open	—	05-30 01:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	29	$1.2K	1,418	1,418	+0	open	—	04-16 09:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$1.1K	976	976	+0	open	—	04-07 23:55
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	16	$1.1K	3,273	3,273	+0	open	—	06-17 04:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	14	$1.0K	628	628	+0	open	—	05-30 01:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	20	$1.0K	929	929	+0	open	—	04-20 18:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 3 569 213	9	$999	614	614	+0	open	—	06-03 23:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	63	$906	45,897	5,852	+40,044	open	—	04-21 03:35
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	82	$882	32,818	37,696	-4,878	open	—	05-25 20:38
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	50	$874	15,146	1,232	+13,914	open	—	06-30 00:00
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	21	$864	615	615	+0	open	—	06-23 01:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 10:05:17	scotus grants trump birthright citizenship rehearing by december 31 20260710222928774	Yes	SELL	94	4¢	$4	0x2cd1cc…
07-18 10:10:52	scotus grants trump birthright citizenship rehearing by december 31 20260710222928774	Yes	BUY	94	4¢	$3	0x2bd4e8…
07-16 09:19:38	will xrp reach 1pt2 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x5e31d2…
07-13 00:47:04	will xrp reach 1pt2 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	18	37¢	$7	0x8d0c63…
07-12 20:32:35	will xrp reach 1pt2 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xcc9659…
07-12 10:57:29	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	117	59¢	$69	0xc4588c…
07-12 10:14:31	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x9f592a…
07-12 10:14:08	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x9c2e36…
07-12 01:47:23	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x2584ff…
07-12 01:47:02	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xdeda3e…
07-11 23:04:07	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	25	42¢	$10	0xa22232…
07-11 23:03:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	135	42¢	$56	0xfab0c0…
07-11 23:00:17	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	144	41¢	$59	0x1b9c5c…
07-10 15:55:40	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	109	35¢	$39	0x6b50db…
07-10 15:54:31	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xcdefce…
07-10 15:52:13	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	169	35¢	$60	0xe55f66…
07-09 18:16:01	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0xe443ce…
07-09 18:11:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x8db63e…
07-09 18:09:28	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	181	35¢	$63	0x875f03…
07-07 17:42:43	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xd82e16…
07-07 17:40:19	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xf225ea…
07-07 17:39:53	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x66690e…
07-07 17:06:38	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	70	34¢	$24	0x7022a0…
07-07 13:02:41	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	SELL	169	18¢	$30	0x06181d…
07-07 13:02:17	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	SELL	109	31¢	$34	0x35b1b9…
07-07 09:16:34	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xb8af9a…
07-07 09:16:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x86f2a4…
07-07 09:16:02	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x4a5fae…
07-07 09:13:55	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xbfd768…
07-07 09:13:26	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x906fb3…
07-07 09:11:14	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x92e1a5…
07-07 07:18:19	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x868106…
07-07 07:18:16	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x6579ce…
07-07 02:53:49	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x00265d…
07-06 14:07:35	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xfb3a42…
07-06 13:50:38	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	United States	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x9dc884…
07-06 13:47:34	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x64928e…
06-30 00:00:14	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	500	5¢	$26	0x42f9a6…
06-29 23:58:25	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	400	5¢	$22	0xd0823f…
06-29 23:35:19	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	300	6¢	$17	0xe667c1…
06-29 21:05:34	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	595	6¢	$36	0xb30885…
06-29 18:15:10	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	107	6¢	$7	0x8a11d5…
06-29 18:11:38	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	130	6¢	$8	0x7a4f2a…
06-29 17:24:49	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xbc4486…
06-29 17:19:52	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	245	6¢	$15	0x9a21eb…
06-29 16:34:40	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4cbe8f…
06-29 16:06:37	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	199	3¢	$7	0xb417a7…
06-25 14:47:01	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x6601a7…
06-25 10:32:58	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	126	8¢	$10	0x9f7030…
06-25 10:23:44	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0xc628d1…
06-25 10:18:17	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	62	10¢	$6	0xff9756…
06-25 10:17:50	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	249	10¢	$26	0x950fa7…
06-25 10:17:04	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	110	11¢	$12	0x97a7fb…
06-25 10:16:05	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	379	11¢	$42	0x849bf9…
06-25 10:15:52	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	379	12¢	$44	0x211b1e…
06-25 08:12:11	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	36	6¢	$2	0x81d7da…
06-24 11:56:58	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x2f3b82…
06-24 09:27:31	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	47	7¢	$3	0x8d4367…
06-24 08:56:22	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x835435…
06-24 08:02:35	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	288	7¢	$20	0x7dfa32…
06-24 07:34:31	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x68e586…
06-24 07:34:31	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x31681c…
06-24 06:11:02	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	470	7¢	$33	0x80ada0…
06-24 06:01:22	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	183	8¢	$15	0x5f4a94…
06-24 06:01:22	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0x081d4e…
06-24 03:50:25	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	143	5¢	$7	0x9dfd73…
06-24 02:57:46	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	80	8¢	$6	0xb39e9c…
06-24 02:35:41	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x040111…
06-24 02:31:56	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	300	5¢	$14	0xe3ce54…
06-24 02:31:31	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x99c82c…
06-24 02:30:28	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xf2d415…
06-24 01:21:20	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	400	4¢	$17	0xccf5d7…
06-24 01:04:38	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	56	8¢	$4	0x1cb45d…
06-24 00:41:01	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xbcfe22…
06-23 23:10:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	41¢	$29	0x309059…
06-23 22:08:25	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	SELL	132	6¢	$8	0x6d963d…
06-23 13:32:10	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x9771ea…
06-23 03:11:37	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xb07d88…
06-23 01:57:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4910c3…
06-23 01:45:41	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xff1640…
06-23 00:19:34	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0xee8e7c…
06-22 22:16:50	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x19381a…
06-22 22:14:11	will wti reach 100 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	122	0¢	$0	0x26114d…
06-22 22:10:22	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	111	97¢	$108	0x959628…
06-22 21:49:41	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	1,376	7¢	$92	0x855f68…
06-22 21:48:08	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	1,979	6¢	$127	0xf50452…
06-22 21:46:35	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x1ddb80…
06-22 18:59:31	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x43dca3…
06-22 16:53:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	112	96¢	$108	0x3bdeba…
06-22 14:44:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x17fc44…
06-22 14:40:26	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x558c5b…
06-22 14:40:16	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xaa197a…
06-22 12:32:25	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$9	0x11ebad…
06-22 11:56:31	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x20f4d7…
06-22 10:56:49	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	Yes	SELL	4,510	0¢	$10	0x2da35d…
06-22 10:28:02	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	61	94¢	$57	0x4b2dc2…
06-22 10:24:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xf557fa…
06-22 10:24:20	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	Yes	SELL	555	0¢	$2	0xa1ba45…
06-22 10:01:41	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	Yes	SELL	403	41¢	$165	0xb22881…
06-22 09:54:46	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	Yes	SELL	690	0¢	$2	0xde3f98…