Informal-Expertise — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$8

Unrealized P&L

-$599

Hit rate

90.7%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

350

9,069 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$3.24K

$144.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$236

18 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-28 14:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Politics

63% 36% -$6,885

Other

27% 31% -$1,022

Crypto

8% 11% -$2,572

Sports

2% 0% -$1,022

Tech

0% 100% +$44

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+8,001	$377	1¢	$60	-$317	10-28 11:30
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	-799	-$50	7¢	$-56	-$6	06-13 11:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+755	$46	6¢	$49	+$3	10-28 12:16
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+2,074	$31	1¢	$28	-$3	10-28 10:54
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	Yes	+100	$18	20¢	$20	+$2	10-28 08:26
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	-288	$149	4¢	$-12	-$160	06-03 23:08
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+2,168	$18	0¢	$9	-$9	10-27 02:25
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?	Yes	+376	$2	0¢	$1	$0	10-27 22:57
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	+13	$28	7¢	$1	-$27	10-20 10:36
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?	Yes	+100	$13	0¢	$0	-$13	10-16 01:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+4	$0	10¢	$0	+$0	10-28 12:06
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Yes	+4	$14	4¢	$0	-$14	10-23 00:26
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	+1	$36	13¢	$0	-$36	10-21 18:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October?	Yes	+20	$37	0¢	$0	-$37	10-27 03:11
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+4	-$8	0¢	$0	+$8	10-03 13:53
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+0	-$11	43¢	$0	+$11	07-16 11:16
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	10-01 11:39
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	09-29 10:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	333	$9.6K	1,260,315	551,121	+709,194	Yes	-$4,027	04-10 15:08
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	188	$7.7K	10,725	12,642	-1,917	No	-$849	04-22 01:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	110	$5.6K	29,147	34,619	-5,472	Yes	-$2,970	04-08 00:35
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	38	$4.0K	8,304	8,404	-100	Yes	-$589	04-08 13:20
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 18 2026	49	$3.4K	2,116	1,794	+322	No	+$155	04-18 06:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	168	$3.2K	44,471	51,423	-6,952	No	+$1,180	05-31 12:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	93	$3.1K	19,626	33,843	-14,216	No	+$391	05-16 01:33
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	34	$3.1K	2,551	2,451	+100	No	+$55	04-22 13:00
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	99	$2.7K	15,075	15,075	+0	No	+$904	06-18 13:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	78	$2.3K	6,817	7,417	-600	No	-$163	05-19 22:23
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	97	$2.2K	4,088	4,553	-465	No	-$494	04-24 16:43
Fed rate hike in 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,937	1,937	+0	Yes	-$76	06-10 12:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	30	$1.9K	2,403	2,403	+0	No	-$182	04-21 03:48
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	49	$1.9K	1,513	1,513	+0	No	+$160	06-04 15:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	70	$1.9K	17,201	20,565	-3,363	No	+$707	05-08 01:04
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	27	$1.9K	1,878	1,878	+0	Yes	-$175	06-25 10:21
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	40	$1.8K	5,361	5,648	-288	open	—	06-03 23:08
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	24	$1.7K	4,851	5,651	-799	open	—	06-13 11:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	7	$1.6K	900	900	+0	No	+$23	04-05 16:31
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	33	$1.6K	1,025	1,025	+0	No	+$96	06-25 07:13
iran closes its airspace by june 15	4	$1.5K	1,208	1,208	+0	Yes	+$956	06-08 03:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	74	$1.4K	4,540	6,645	-2,105	No	-$136	04-29 22:52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	25	$1.4K	840	810	+30	No	+$101	05-30 01:32
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	15	$1.4K	1,154	1,154	+0	Yes	+$5	06-14 10:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	29	$1.2K	1,418	1,418	+0	No	+$60	04-16 09:37
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	23	$1.1K	2,847	2,847	+0	open	—	08-26 12:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$1.1K	976	976	+0	Yes	+$64	04-07 23:55
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	16	$1.1K	3,273	3,273	+0	No	+$6	06-17 04:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	14	$1.0K	628	628	+0	No	+$91	05-30 01:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	20	$1.0K	929	929	+0	No	-$109	04-20 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:18:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x872886…
10-28 14:15:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x79b7ee…
10-28 13:52:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0xcd5bfd…
10-28 13:44:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x5e627e…
10-28 13:36:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x92530a…
10-28 13:36:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x013726…
10-28 13:36:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x8cea8f…
10-28 13:36:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xbbedcb…
10-28 13:19:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x53b32e…
10-28 13:13:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0ae01d…
10-28 13:12:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x6e98d3…
10-28 12:16:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	106	6¢	$6	0x1519e6…
10-28 12:08:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	348	6¢	$21	0x0bd010…
10-28 12:06:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x124761…
10-28 12:02:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x71bb0d…
10-28 11:42:25	Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	858	1¢	$12	0xe30f32…
10-28 11:30:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,547	1¢	$34	0x739f7b…
10-28 10:54:55	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	174	1¢	$1	0x3686d8…
10-28 08:35:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x06b296…
10-28 08:35:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x05aaa0…
10-28 08:29:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xd21145…
10-28 08:26:31	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xeb59e4…
10-28 08:26:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	399	5¢	$20	0xbee137…
10-28 05:57:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x6dd2a5…
10-28 05:57:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x0ebd0c…
10-28 05:57:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x489c6c…
10-28 05:57:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x42cc7b…
10-28 04:48:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0x49fdc3…
10-27 23:06:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	SELL	87	4¢	$3	0x6437bd…
10-27 23:06:15	Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by December 31?	Yes	SELL	183	1¢	$1	0x03bcda…
10-27 23:03:29	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	2,947	1¢	$24	0xd297af…
10-27 22:57:47	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd31364…
10-27 22:48:00	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$0	0xf4249a…
10-27 22:47:06	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	349	1¢	$3	0x8764e5…
10-27 22:47:06	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	239	1¢	$2	0x5bf9c5…
10-27 22:45:45	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x053bbd…
10-27 22:45:33	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	335	0¢	$1	0xd71766…
10-27 22:42:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,348	1¢	$35	0x751973…
10-27 22:26:50	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,462	2¢	$30	0xff3080…
10-27 20:49:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	92	21¢	$19	0x816ad9…
10-27 20:49:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x349d99…
10-27 20:49:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	22	19¢	$4	0x095acd…
10-27 20:48:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	SELL	150	5¢	$8	0x23fd9d…
10-27 20:48:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x0d9b86…
10-27 20:48:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	88	20¢	$17	0xc538af…
10-27 20:48:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	25	21¢	$5	0x16cf44…
10-27 12:37:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 2?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x1ca65c…
10-27 12:17:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x491bb1…
10-27 12:07:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb80b6c…
10-27 12:07:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	220	8¢	$18	0x95a829…
10-27 12:07:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	110	26¢	$29	0xc0fdc6…
10-27 12:04:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	SELL	780	0¢	$4	0x40619b…
10-27 11:53:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x777dd7…
10-27 11:52:41	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	Yes	SELL	70	24¢	$17	0x7753f1…
10-27 10:48:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 2?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x6bf134…
10-27 10:47:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	110	11¢	$12	0xdbe7f7…
10-27 10:46:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	SELL	118	6¢	$7	0x70be40…
10-27 10:32:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	SELL	220	1¢	$1	0xe537ae…
10-27 10:30:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	SELL	92	4¢	$4	0x98f19f…
10-27 09:38:14	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xde01c7…
10-27 07:01:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	99	22¢	$22	0x08ee18…
10-27 06:55:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x1140bc…
10-27 06:17:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xe2bc3e…
10-27 03:44:36	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0xf13d7a…
10-27 03:11:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October?	Yes	SELL	244	1¢	$2	0x821188…
10-27 02:46:44	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$7	0x586cd6…
10-27 02:26:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x84754f…
10-27 02:26:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 2?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xa925af…
10-27 02:26:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 2?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x7c2ecc…
10-27 02:25:36	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	94	0¢	$0	0xab300e…
10-27 01:57:09	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	Yes	BUY	70	31¢	$22	0x1e29cd…
10-27 01:33:45	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x2d40d7…
10-27 01:33:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x96e37f…
10-27 01:23:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x057bef…
10-27 01:22:33	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x31a82e…
10-27 01:21:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x76e5f2…
10-27 01:18:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x18e131…
10-27 00:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xe2b6ce…
10-27 00:14:11	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x707033…
10-27 00:12:02	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb39433…
10-27 00:12:02	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x9beeca…
10-27 00:12:02	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x2b97aa…
10-27 00:03:29	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0xa5dbd0…
10-26 23:14:15	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	152	0¢	$0	0x72923b…
10-26 22:48:36	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$2	0x3040d2…
10-26 22:43:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x4f315c…
10-26 22:43:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0xacdb71…
10-26 22:43:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xa23150…
10-26 22:21:15	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x746b5e…
10-26 22:09:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x730c26…
10-26 22:06:53	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	935	2¢	$16	0x0ce653…
10-26 21:32:23	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,700	2¢	$27	0x6e46e1…
10-26 20:59:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xae19be…
10-26 20:18:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	350	27¢	$94	0x2bc467…
10-26 18:17:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	571	2¢	$9	0x84b81d…
10-26 18:17:26	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	240	4¢	$9	0xb3f0fd…
10-26 14:26:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x8d4319…
10-26 12:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	350	26¢	$91	0xff31ee…
10-26 11:49:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf1ff0d…
10-26 09:01:57	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x0b6490…