Stupendous-Donut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$330

Unrealized P&L

+$48

Hit rate

53.4%

Resolved

725

Trades

6,955

lifetime

Volume

$34.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$481

21 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 10-29 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

62% 41% -$225

Sports

16% 31% -$59

Crypto

12% 50% -$38

Politics

7% 45% -$10

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+220	$118	65¢	$144	+$25	10-25 22:16
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+135	$97	86¢	$116	+$20	10-27 08:20
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+50	$41	88¢	$44	+$3	10-26 14:11
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+100	$31	34¢	$34	+$3	10-29 02:21
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+50	$32	44¢	$22	-$10	10-25 22:49
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	+19	$16	91¢	$18	+$2	10-27 23:42
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+50	$24	34¢	$17	-$7	10-29 17:52
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+30	$16	46¢	$14	-$2	10-25 00:15
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+15	$4	87¢	$13	+$9	10-12 08:29
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	+25	$8	46¢	$12	+$4	10-02 04:54
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+74	$13	14¢	$10	-$3	10-25 22:32
Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	+10	$9	98¢	$10	+$1	09-13 23:14
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	+50	$6	19¢	$10	+$3	10-25 21:52
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	+25	$8	23¢	$6	-$2	09-25 01:38
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+6	$5	84¢	$5	+$0	08-12 23:33
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	82¢	$4	+$0	10-11 14:54
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+3	$1	72¢	$2	+$1	10-22 15:04
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$2	26¢	$1	$0	10-15 04:03
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+0	$0	68¢	$0	$0	07-28 20:28
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+0	$0	18¢	$0	+$0	07-10 14:46
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	06-03 11:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	48	$392	701	481	+220	open	—	10-25 22:16
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	33	$359	375	375	+0	open	—	10-10 05:15
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	22	$283	264	264	+0	open	—	10-06 21:43
Will Arch Manning be the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?	20	$245	170	137	+33	open	—	10-10 23:24
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj	62	$236	493	0	+493	Jil Teichmann	+$9	05-21 19:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	26	$228	221	221	+0	open	—	09-27 22:11
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	53	$205	401	0	+401	Aleksandar Kovacevic	-$9	05-21 17:37
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	13	$193	188	138	+50	open	—	10-25 21:52
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North?	9	$189	140	140	+0	open	—	10-27 03:42
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	11	$183	245	145	+100	open	—	10-29 05:38
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	18	$175	194	164	+30	open	—	10-25 00:15
Will Boca Juniors win the 2026 Copa Sudamericana?	13	$169	125	125	+0	open	—	10-19 21:53
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	24	$168	201	151	+50	open	—	10-28 16:06
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings	33	$161	330	0	+330	Gujarat Titans	-$1	05-21 17:11
Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	13	$159	116	116	+0	open	—	10-07 17:46
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien	37	$152	300	0	+300	Learner Tien	-$2	05-21 17:35
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	23	$145	219	194	+25	open	—	10-04 23:44
Will Dak Prescott finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing yards?	10	$138	90	90	+0	open	—	10-05 01:01
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	8	$137	104	104	+0	open	—	10-29 16:37
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	8	$137	139	139	+0	open	—	10-24 12:15
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Gonzalo?	25	$132	155	155	+0	No	+$4	09-22 22:34
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	8	$131	83	83	+0	open	—	10-26 17:54
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	23	$131	143	143	+0	open	—	10-18 13:57
Will Chovy win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?	5	$127	105	55	+50	open	—	10-26 13:50
Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase?	10	$127	105	105	+0	open	—	10-26 23:54
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	8	$126	175	40	+135	open	—	10-27 08:20
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	19	$125	161	161	+0	No	+$31	09-20 23:25
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	24	$121	237	187	+50	open	—	10-26 14:11
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	10	$118	92	92	+0	open	—	10-02 02:46
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	22	$117	177	176	+0	open	—	10-16 13:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:14:30	Will a player from the Big Ten win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	No	SELL	29	60¢	$17	0x5985cf…
10-29 19:12:19	Will Ohio Bobcats Win the 2026 MAC Championship?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x74f337…
10-29 19:09:00	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x56a85f…
10-29 19:05:16	Will Michigan State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x67393d…
10-29 19:03:34	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x7b3c9b…
10-29 17:52:56	Will Invictus Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xebfec2…
10-29 17:52:17	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x86fa15…
10-29 17:43:40	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xd2cba3…
10-29 17:05:13	Will Manchester City finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0xd72901…
10-29 16:56:53	Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x31e8bf…
10-29 16:52:01	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x568fd4…
10-29 16:46:35	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	17	14¢	$2	0xef6de1…
10-29 16:37:56	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	42	96¢	$41	0xb91838…
10-29 16:30:08	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x968b06…
10-29 16:29:19	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x078ba6…
10-29 16:04:53	Will Manchester City finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xfc1216…
10-29 15:31:20	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	6	76¢	$5	0xc3d642…
10-29 15:05:10	Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0xd7771f…
10-29 14:42:38	Will Pittsburgh have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xac0784…
10-29 13:31:44	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x926486…
10-29 13:18:31	Will Pittsburgh have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x67aadc…
10-29 13:12:08	Will Miami FL have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x5c7a98…
10-29 13:04:58	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x4333bc…
10-29 12:15:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0x051c9b…
10-29 12:15:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0x54e751…
10-29 12:07:02	Will the Colorado Avalanche make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	BUY	49	9¢	$4	0xae4186…
10-29 11:11:22	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0xc891d4…
10-29 07:30:29	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0x85355e…
10-29 07:25:35	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0x78f9d1…
10-29 07:05:37	Will Pittsburgh have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5e4c50…
10-29 07:04:59	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf68e32…
10-29 07:04:23	Will the Nashville Predators make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xcceb2b…
10-29 07:03:46	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x077948…
10-29 07:03:08	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0c4711…
10-29 07:02:32	Will "Wicker" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xab5411…
10-29 06:58:56	Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x8cee3f…
10-29 06:28:07	Will the Boston Celtics make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0xa3860e…
10-29 06:25:13	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	19	55¢	$10	0xc599ca…
10-29 05:46:22	Will the Anaheim Ducks make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xd59231…
10-29 05:38:08	Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x764083…
10-29 03:53:49	Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	19	35¢	$7	0xa36228…
10-29 03:34:37	Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	17	74¢	$13	0x836bbc…
10-29 03:20:59	Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x3cc8c9…
10-29 03:01:31	Will Team USA win the 2027 Ryder Cup?	Yes	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0x1b4701…
10-29 03:00:32	Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x028390…
10-29 02:48:11	Will the Chicago Blackhawks make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xbc6174…
10-29 02:32:16	Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	SELL	49	67¢	$33	0x86621d…
10-29 02:31:44	Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xb1980a…
10-29 02:21:38	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x6b49e9…
10-29 01:20:25	Will Yaxel Lendeborg win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	SELL	30	23¢	$7	0xffd38a…
10-29 00:48:50	Will the Miami Heat make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xf4897f…
10-29 00:35:08	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x7ab1c2…
10-29 00:25:40	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	32	65¢	$21	0x9b2820…
10-29 00:25:13	Will Team USA win the 2027 Ryder Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x2c82ec…
10-29 00:18:13	Will the Chicago Bulls make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x761277…
10-28 23:48:19	Will Club Brugge finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3cb270…
10-28 22:53:58	Will the Winnipeg Jets make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0xe6452a…
10-28 22:01:23	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x34e950…
10-28 20:57:55	Will Greece win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xd1a616…
10-28 20:37:37	Will the Boston Bruins make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0xfc5eb6…
10-28 20:34:55	Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0xb2e929…
10-28 20:14:11	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0xcaac3a…
10-28 20:08:34	Will a player from the ACC win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	No	BUY	46	69¢	$32	0xa66ac6…
10-28 19:48:13	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x86e1b9…
10-28 18:44:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	21	32¢	$7	0x8822cc…
10-28 17:25:16	Will Zendaya be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	51	93¢	$47	0x701843…
10-28 17:22:40	Will Sam Rockwell be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	39	75¢	$29	0x303e92…
10-28 17:13:41	Will North Dakota State Bison Win the 2026 Mountain West Championship?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0xa7437b…
10-28 16:54:38	Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xa2c1a3…
10-28 16:49:35	Will the Utah Jazz make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	27	20¢	$5	0xb7a73b…
10-28 16:30:19	Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	53¢	$26	0xd8daef…
10-28 16:28:50	Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	47	68¢	$32	0x96487e…
10-28 16:26:52	Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	49	66¢	$32	0x36b226…
10-28 16:17:32	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x5ab3f1…
10-28 16:09:19	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x0b64f6…
10-28 16:09:05	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x416b48…
10-28 16:06:40	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xf7e53a…
10-28 16:00:52	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x303fb3…
10-28 15:22:23	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x9f3084…
10-28 15:03:02	Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2027? (copy)	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xaf6905…
10-28 15:02:46	Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2027? (copy)	No	BUY	23	84¢	$19	0x040b2f…
10-28 13:53:43	Will Team USA win the 2027 Ryder Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x913ef5…
10-28 13:50:05	Will David Montgomery have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x68da80…
10-28 13:46:13	Will Miami (OH) RedHawks Win the 2026 MAC Championship?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x60b84c…
10-28 12:59:43	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	58	43¢	$25	0x6d44b0…
10-28 12:51:23	Will Jadarian Price have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x224469…
10-28 12:31:50	Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x9598d5…
10-28 10:52:52	Will Boise State have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	49	23¢	$11	0x9ce4dc…
10-28 10:25:08	Will Rashee Rice have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x1a1b36…
10-28 10:18:37	Will Rashee Rice have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xa5c28d…
10-28 10:16:37	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	42	42¢	$18	0x4619e0…
10-28 10:14:59	Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0x4560db…
10-28 10:03:47	Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x094da8…
10-28 09:53:17	Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xd78f05…
10-28 09:50:55	Will the Miami Dolphins have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x13ceef…
10-28 09:30:43	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0x900fcd…
10-28 08:45:37	Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x3f6adc…
10-28 08:43:41	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	6	56¢	$4	0xc9f47c…
10-28 07:53:14	Will Wisconsin have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0x159edb…
10-28 07:29:10	Will Jadarian Price have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x034fbf…