Fumbling-Governance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$167

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$734

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-15

last 05-21 12:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

67% 12% -$94

Crypto

28% 42% -$37

Politics

5% 0% -$36

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	2	$93	85	85	+0	Yes	+$60	05-16 04:17
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?	2	$82	78	78	+0	Yes	+$73	05-21 12:35
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?	1	$60	218	0	+218	No	-$60	05-16 04:19
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$51	176	176	+0	No	-$9	05-15 23:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$35	47	47	+0	Down	-$15	05-15 04:53
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?	4	$32	3,716	172	+3,544	No	-$4	05-21 12:37
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	2	$25	26	26	+0	MOUZ	-$5	05-15 05:52
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?	3	$24	5,065	0	+5,065	No	-$24	05-21 12:37
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?	2	$22	5,040	0	+5,040	No	-$22	05-21 07:14
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?	2	$20	10,090	0	+10,090	No	-$20	05-15 06:40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?	1	$20	417	0	+417	Yes	-$20	05-15 06:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20?	1	$16	118	0	+118	No	-$16	05-20 02:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	2	$15	56	56	+0	Up	+$5	05-15 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$15	12	12	+0	Down	+$5	05-15 06:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	3	$15	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	05-15 04:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?	1	$14	37	0	+37	No	-$14	05-16 04:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	2	$12	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	05-15 04:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	2	$12	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	05-15 04:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	2	$11	18	18	+0	Up	+$1	05-15 05:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	2	$11	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	05-15 04:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	3	$11	56	56	+0	Down	+$1	05-15 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?	1	$10	2,099	0	+2,099	No	-$10	05-20 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	2	$10	571	0	+571	Down	-$10	05-15 04:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	2	$10	18	0	+18	Down	-$10	05-15 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	3	$9	8	8	+0	Up	-$1	05-15 04:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	2	$8	11	11	+0	Up	-$2	05-15 04:36
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?	1	$8	5,334	0	+5,334	No	-$8	05-15 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$7	15	15	+0	Up	-$3	05-15 23:34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?	1	$6	81	0	+81	No	-$6	05-16 00:05
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$6	143	0	+143	No	-$6	05-15 06:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 12:37:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	BUY	3,508	0¢	$5	0x879948…
05-21 12:37:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x07400c…
05-21 12:37:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xf460f8…
05-21 12:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?	Yes	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0xd48f4c…
05-21 07:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	BUY	35	23¢	$8	0xf15f7c…
05-21 07:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x1e13cb…
05-21 07:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	SELL	172	8¢	$14	0x982622…
05-20 23:48:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x0e0e9f…
05-20 23:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x4b7a9b…
05-20 23:47:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0xcbea78…
05-20 23:47:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	78	6¢	$4	0xd3a9e9…
05-20 23:47:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	59	29¢	$17	0x6569fa…
05-20 23:47:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	2,099	0¢	$10	0x67b34e…
05-20 02:23:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	118	13¢	$16	0xe8da87…
05-16 04:19:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	37	37¢	$14	0x95ec12…
05-16 04:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	218	28¢	$60	0xbf95f7…
05-16 04:17:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	Yes	SELL	85	90¢	$77	0x9a1a19…
05-16 00:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?	Yes	BUY	81	7¢	$6	0x68e025…
05-16 00:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,509	0¢	$5	0x93644b…
05-15 23:59:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,334	0¢	$8	0x1e4643…
05-15 23:59:05	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	12¢	$21	0x04d391…
05-15 23:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	85	20¢	$17	0xa033a3…
05-15 23:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0x61b16b…
05-15 23:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1a08b5…
05-15 06:58:43	Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	108	5¢	$5	0x16bdb9…
05-15 06:58:29	Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0xc788ce…
05-15 06:57:28	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	135	4¢	$5	0xf855ed…
05-15 06:57:16	Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	81	5¢	$4	0xb77fb0…
05-15 06:56:11	Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xb5475e…
05-15 06:56:01	Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	143	4¢	$6	0xbb19e8…
05-15 06:55:36	Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	203	3¢	$6	0x1037b8…
05-15 06:55:05	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	123	2¢	$3	0xd6eff1…
05-15 06:54:33	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x479051…
05-15 06:52:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0xef137e…
05-15 06:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,590	0¢	$5	0x053cff…
05-15 06:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xe5a3c4…
05-15 06:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	7,500	0¢	$15	0xeb33c4…
05-15 06:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0x22db85…
05-15 06:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xf0de12…
05-15 06:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?	No	BUY	417	5¢	$20	0xba0915…
05-15 05:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0x344916…
05-15 05:57:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xaaabfa…
05-15 05:52:47	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	MOUZ	SELL	26	37¢	$10	0xb86d60…
05-15 05:52:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	56	19¢	$10	0xf4c467…
05-15 05:51:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xc5a2b9…
05-15 05:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x404b26…
05-15 05:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xc8af08…
05-15 05:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	18	36¢	$6	0xd7b3b3…
05-15 05:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x425b7f…
05-15 05:08:53	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	MOUZ	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x27ffa5…
05-15 05:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x12c12d…
05-15 04:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xd9f976…
05-15 04:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	53	11¢	$6	0x8ce3af…
05-15 04:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xff22b2…
05-15 04:56:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	16	41¢	$6	0x4be759…
05-15 04:55:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xb335e5…
05-15 04:53:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	47	22¢	$10	0xb01809…
05-15 04:48:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xbb2fe6…
05-15 04:46:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x6b3108…
05-15 04:46:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb16ff4…
05-15 04:40:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x8d6d65…
05-15 04:39:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x75a093…
05-15 04:38:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x4d1f5e…
05-15 04:36:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xafadc1…
05-15 04:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x4aaff2…
05-15 04:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x05df73…
05-15 04:33:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0xb4c0cf…
05-15 04:33:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	17	59¢	$10	0xb2c5e5…
05-15 04:33:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf62ad0…
05-15 04:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x77380f…
05-15 04:31:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0xf1451a…
05-15 04:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x50118b…
05-15 04:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xfd7e21…
05-15 04:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x35b975…
05-15 04:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb3ae28…
05-15 04:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x100c3d…