Realized P&L
-$5
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
49.8%
Resolved
26
Trades
198
lifetime
Volume
$970
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$19
6 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-14 19:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
85% 60% +$8
Other
15% 10% $-13
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
23 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes -51 $-8 18¢ $-9 $-2 06-12 19:20
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -78 $-3 $-3 $-0 07-09 20:55
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes -51 $-4 $-3 +$1 06-12 19:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes -11 $-2 24¢ $-2 +$0 06-12 19:19
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes -10 $-1 $-1 +$0 06-12 19:19
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? Yes -6 $-2 $-0 +$1 07-09 20:24