Mortified-Underneath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

Trades

174

lifetime

Volume

$730

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-01 20:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

87% 60% +$8

Other

13% 10% $-13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	+45	$4	14¢	$6	+$3	05-30 21:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	+13	$2	22¢	$3	+$0	06-01 20:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	+10	$1	10¢	$1	+$0	06-01 20:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$100	127	0	+127	open	—	01-14 10:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	3	$74	51	51	+0	open	—	04-26 09:47
odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 30 by march 31 645	7	$52	171	171	+0	open	—	02-13 09:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$51	31	31	+0	open	—	04-19 20:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$50	168	143	+25	open	—	03-08 21:16
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	5	$44	102	102	+0	open	—	05-25 22:55
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$43	28	28	+0	open	—	05-30 21:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$39	30	30	+0	open	—	05-15 21:50
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	4	$33	103	51	+51	open	—	05-30 18:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	2	$32	22	22	+0	open	—	04-27 18:29
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$15	49	0	+49	open	—	03-06 07:42
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$10	117	142	-25	open	—	03-08 21:15
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	01-09 22:53
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	1	$10	19	0	+19	Yes	+$9	04-26 10:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$10	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	05-08 18:02
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	5	$10	53	53	+0	open	—	05-21 18:19
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$8	20	20	+0	open	—	01-30 07:51
odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794	2	$6	58	58	+0	open	—	02-13 09:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$5	130	130	+0	open	—	03-20 08:01
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	1	$5	90	0	+90	open	—	05-30 08:36
trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 31 134 583	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	01-04 22:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-27 07:09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	05-25 21:17
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	2	$4	45	0	+45	open	—	05-30 21:42
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	2	$4	35	35	+0	open	—	01-20 22:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$3	25	25	+0	open	—	05-21 05:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$3	16	0	+16	open	—	04-20 06:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	1	$2	13	0	+13	open	—	06-01 20:55
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$2	167	167	+0	No	+$0	04-26 19:19
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$2	125	125	+0	No	+$0	04-27 07:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 20:55:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x7761ad…
06-01 20:54:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x403848…
05-30 21:42:48	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x0c729d…
05-30 21:42:16	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x755b83…
05-30 21:36:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xaa5592…
05-30 18:09:30	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	51	25¢	$13	0x8dedf7…
05-30 12:09:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x262e3e…
05-30 10:28:52	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x4bdc02…
05-30 08:36:17	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	90	6¢	$5	0xd9baf9…
05-30 08:36:08	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x836a76…
05-29 05:14:37	Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3c33c5…
05-25 22:55:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	SELL	51	40¢	$20	0x79d8d9…
05-25 21:43:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x6abd36…
05-25 21:43:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	SELL	37	25¢	$9	0xc7370e…
05-25 21:30:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x1f09ad…
05-25 21:29:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x12b301…
05-25 21:17:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xc37fcc…
05-23 23:11:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xdf1244…
05-21 18:19:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x5746c1…
05-21 05:16:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x62f588…
05-15 22:07:19	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x39f04b…
05-15 21:50:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x99f48e…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x3775a1…
05-04 20:46:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x65711f…
05-04 20:46:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x86b156…
05-04 18:23:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xb39ed3…
05-02 07:41:54	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x51ffbe…
05-01 05:14:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0xcdc4e2…
04-30 22:03:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xafce08…
04-30 22:02:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xb1149b…
04-30 21:48:30	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xfb9c8a…
04-30 05:14:58	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0xb792d5…
04-30 05:14:50	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0xe5ea7b…
04-30 05:14:42	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	77	0¢	$0	0x93e2ac…
04-30 05:14:28	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	91	0¢	$0	0xc62971…
04-29 19:29:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x40422b…
04-29 19:29:24	Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	71	0¢	$0	0x2ac7c0…
04-29 19:28:54	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x39d8fb…
04-29 13:46:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6ecf08…
04-28 20:56:20	Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x05da1e…
04-28 20:54:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x42eabe…
04-28 20:54:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x89e0c8…
04-28 20:53:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7fbc00…
04-27 19:35:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x64ff64…
04-27 18:29:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x86d439…
04-27 08:44:06	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x2ef27e…
04-27 08:43:58	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0xbea755…
04-27 08:43:30	Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x77771d…
04-27 07:10:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x25bc5e…
04-27 07:09:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x406aaf…
04-27 07:07:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x8aaa1a…
04-27 07:07:28	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xea3563…
04-27 07:07:10	Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xc3b4a3…
04-27 07:06:48	Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	302	0¢	$1	0x0d66d5…
04-27 07:02:22	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	1¢	$1	0xeeec53…
04-27 07:02:08	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x149ca2…
04-27 07:01:46	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0xc0f143…
04-27 07:00:04	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x7c95e4…
04-26 19:19:54	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x200e4f…
04-26 19:19:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	167	1¢	$1	0x1149cf…
04-26 10:07:06	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xb4ba77…
04-26 10:07:00	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xb56109…
04-26 10:06:52	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x5e8545…
04-26 10:06:40	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x817915…
04-26 10:06:32	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x868094…
04-26 10:06:26	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x73d67e…
04-26 10:06:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x9ba3fd…
04-26 10:06:10	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	178	1¢	$1	0x4e1a8a…
04-26 10:06:06	Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x8dea38…
04-26 10:05:54	Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	302	0¢	$1	0x70efd4…
04-26 10:05:48	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x114ddb…
04-26 10:05:42	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x24735f…
04-26 10:05:36	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xd823db…
04-26 10:05:28	Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc2602e…
04-26 10:05:20	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xac7741…
04-26 10:04:36	Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x4b4c58…
04-26 10:04:28	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x987f4d…
04-26 10:04:20	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xad6062…
04-26 10:04:12	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9e02b7…
04-26 10:04:06	Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc0f287…
04-26 10:03:58	Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd464f2…
04-26 10:03:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0efc3b…
04-26 10:03:30	Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfd8145…
04-26 10:02:50	Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x593396…
04-26 10:00:06	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x9521a6…
04-26 09:47:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf534f6…
04-26 09:47:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xa570dd…
04-25 22:49:22	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xd63210…
04-25 22:42:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xfdc893…
04-25 22:42:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0x438b19…
04-25 22:42:32	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xf22c1a…
04-25 22:38:20	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x4d13fa…
04-25 22:38:10	Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa266c4…
04-25 22:37:56	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x20f184…
04-25 22:37:50	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x923e9b…
04-25 22:37:42	Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xf5f0f1…
04-25 22:37:30	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x2363cd…
04-25 22:37:22	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x7fe566…
04-25 19:35:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x04f559…
04-25 19:33:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x0b2159…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	102	$774.5K	13,942	06-09 23:23
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	91	$42.3K	742	06-08 21:45
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	80	$21.1K	9,406	04-26 14:40
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	78	$11.7K	4,291	06-03 21:29
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	77	$306.3K	21,861	06-01 04:28
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	75	$46.6K	8,828	05-06 11:14
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	75	$42.2K	4,163	06-04 01:36
Complete-Novel 0x60fd…89a9	73	$12.5K	3,856	06-01 02:23