Silent-Obsidian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$85

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved

Trades

18,040

lifetime

Volume

$3.37M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$187

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 18:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Politics

47% 83% $-925

Other

47% 91% +$1,010

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 254 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	129	$77.2K	40,268	38,598	+1,669	open	—	02-28 12:39
will tran cam tu be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	431	$65.6K	37,312	46,974	-9,662	open	—	01-23 07:24
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	215	$63.4K	40,325	36,009	+4,316	open	—	01-23 07:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	123	$62.0K	37,244	42,266	-5,021	open	—	03-03 00:13
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	236	$58.4K	29,475	34,605	-5,131	open	—	03-01 01:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	98	$55.9K	52,893	27,143	+25,750	open	—	06-03 21:41
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	220	$52.1K	25,067	36,403	-11,336	open	—	01-23 07:51
will luong cuong be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	412	$49.0K	40,363	33,832	+6,531	open	—	01-22 14:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	113	$46.3K	63,797	35,583	+28,215	open	—	06-28 02:12
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	114	$44.8K	25,680	30,050	-4,369	open	—	01-31 16:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	55	$44.6K	17,100	28,600	-11,500	open	—	04-30 14:56
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	84	$36.4K	24,373	25,413	-1,040	open	—	04-08 16:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	152	$36.4K	28,300	29,026	-726	open	—	04-20 14:36
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	79	$34.4K	29,086	23,297	+5,789	open	—	06-17 21:53
netanyahu out by march 31 854	91	$26.8K	21,250	20,973	+277	open	—	03-28 13:13
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	46	$26.3K	11,583	14,900	-3,317	open	—	01-03 18:31
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	44	$26.1K	17,450	9,169	+8,281	open	—	02-03 20:03
fact check maduro capture staged	80	$24.5K	15,264	10,011	+5,253	open	—	03-31 00:05
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	9	$23.9K	12,000	12,000	+0	open	—	07-27 20:01
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	109	$23.5K	14,463	13,120	+1,344	open	—	02-03 20:32
will axiom be accused of insider trading	93	$23.4K	28,692	13,707	+14,985	open	—	02-26 13:53
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	94	$22.8K	17,783	12,381	+5,401	open	—	03-10 14:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	21	$22.3K	11,100	11,900	-800	open	—	06-14 07:56
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	93	$21.8K	10,168	11,825	-1,656	open	—	02-08 13:09
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	137	$21.6K	10,749	13,878	-3,129	open	—	01-30 01:58
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	18	$21.5K	12,843	9,843	+3,000	open	—	06-18 00:03
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	181	$21.4K	10,125	11,752	-1,627	open	—	01-30 08:53
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	31	$20.3K	13,097	9,097	+4,000	open	—	08-02 03:44
will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	42	$20.1K	10,925	9,720	+1,205	open	—	08-03 15:05
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	99	$20.0K	18,355	12,239	+6,116	open	—	05-10 15:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 19:15:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1,487	82¢	$1,219	0xe6c450…
08-10 19:09:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x8484b9…
08-10 18:11:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xdae7c7…
08-10 16:13:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0xdfd1b5…
08-10 15:18:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	14	82¢	$12	0x679e8c…
08-10 14:47:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	110	82¢	$90	0x49abac…
08-10 14:40:36	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	55	74¢	$40	0x6aa893…
08-10 14:37:42	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	357	74¢	$264	0x970d85…
08-10 14:30:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xc1262b…
08-10 14:29:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	157	74¢	$116	0x853e33…
08-10 14:28:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x554ae6…
08-10 14:28:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x95f239…
08-10 14:25:36	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xdcc3bc…
08-10 14:23:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	2,420	74¢	$1,791	0x6ffaa5…
08-10 14:11:31	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x52c61e…
08-10 14:03:46	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0xe6020c…
08-10 09:03:43	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	259	89¢	$231	0xc64e25…
08-10 03:51:34	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0x008fbd…
08-10 03:06:12	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0xf73fd0…
08-10 03:03:46	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x29f18b…
08-10 02:55:30	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	889	70¢	$622	0xeaa36b…
08-09 18:54:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	681	97¢	$660	0x2a9fec…
08-09 18:28:21	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	241	89¢	$214	0x937066…
08-09 17:58:36	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	SELL	1,600	89¢	$1,424	0x6471b2…
08-09 17:28:22	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0x9be166…
08-09 12:19:15	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	160	80¢	$128	0xc82339…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	93	80¢	$74	0xbdbb8d…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	37	80¢	$30	0xa0311d…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	430	80¢	$344	0x9f7c90…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	297	80¢	$237	0x6b138d…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	77	80¢	$62	0x20e832…
08-09 12:19:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x1676d1…
08-09 12:13:42	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x95af03…
08-09 12:09:21	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xbae1b8…
08-09 11:38:22	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xdfe361…
08-09 11:05:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	1,179	91¢	$1,073	0xc1b478…
08-09 11:05:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	1,659	74¢	$1,232	0xd2fa08…
08-09 11:05:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	1,621	92¢	$1,498	0xe92e3e…
08-09 11:03:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	797	94¢	$750	0xeffec2…
08-09 10:59:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	203	94¢	$191	0x7f4253…
08-09 10:55:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	500	53¢	$265	0x9cfdff…
08-09 10:49:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	136	94¢	$129	0x92adc8…
08-09 07:35:27	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	104	88¢	$91	0x38b12d…
08-09 04:52:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	664	94¢	$627	0x24ec9e…
08-09 02:19:01	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	1,600	97¢	$1,554	0x39248f…
08-09 02:06:22	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	135	86¢	$116	0xc60326…
08-09 02:06:22	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	25	87¢	$21	0x7dfd5c…
08-09 02:06:03	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x69dae1…
08-09 02:06:00	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	113	77¢	$87	0xe230fd…
08-09 01:43:04	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	416	45¢	$187	0x780825…
08-09 01:42:10	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	28	45¢	$13	0xaba53c…
08-09 00:49:25	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	521	92¢	$482	0xe0427d…
08-08 21:40:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	76	93¢	$70	0x8ad2b7…
08-08 21:39:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	303	93¢	$281	0xc814e0…
08-08 21:39:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	403	93¢	$375	0x6fa92f…
08-08 21:39:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	219	93¢	$203	0xf38b91…
08-08 17:07:43	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xc7db6f…
08-08 17:07:09	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x3c5437…
08-08 17:06:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x5cba6a…
08-08 17:06:34	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x73e42f…
08-08 16:34:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	483	97¢	$468	0x80f2e5…
08-08 16:15:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	163	77¢	$126	0xed8a49…
08-08 16:12:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x93f05e…
08-08 16:11:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	130	77¢	$100	0x567382…
08-08 16:01:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	91	37¢	$34	0x719750…
08-08 15:49:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	13	36¢	$5	0x4c7c43…
08-08 14:38:15	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1aa446…
08-08 14:24:28	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x3b2746…
08-08 13:49:28	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0x77badf…
08-08 13:49:25	trump announces lisa cook termination by august 31 20260807185637359	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x6c82ad…
08-08 13:48:49	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	456	77¢	$350	0xa51058…
08-08 13:43:45	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0x651d72…
08-08 13:40:55	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	28	70¢	$19	0x7c3f6a…
08-08 13:32:15	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	125	77¢	$96	0xeeff5a…
08-08 13:26:07	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x240e6f…
08-08 13:23:33	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	2,298	96¢	$2,208	0x21518b…
08-08 12:59:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	260	77¢	$200	0x02c65e…
08-08 12:46:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x683666…
08-08 11:58:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	800	77¢	$616	0x072c80…
08-08 11:48:24	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0x59aa35…
08-08 11:30:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	201	77¢	$155	0x486925…
08-08 11:22:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x0b3212…
08-08 10:49:37	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x182225…
08-08 10:40:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x938265…
08-08 10:22:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	91	25¢	$23	0x6513f8…
08-08 10:01:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xa18ae5…
08-08 09:01:07	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	202	96¢	$194	0xc036de…
08-08 08:41:04	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	31	37¢	$12	0x45dca1…
08-08 08:40:21	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xa35ae9…
08-08 08:39:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	857	26¢	$223	0xeb1330…
08-08 08:39:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x86e978…
08-08 08:30:51	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0x9985f2…
08-08 08:17:40	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	151	37¢	$56	0x40a090…
08-08 07:51:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	41	77¢	$31	0xe589f9…
08-08 07:44:10	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x0bb67d…
08-08 07:43:34	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x15eaab…
08-08 06:51:57	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	132	37¢	$49	0x5757fe…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	68¢	$680	0xe7efe1…
08-08 06:29:13	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	177	37¢	$65	0x39b018…
08-08 06:21:49	trump announces lisa cook termination by september 30 20260807185637360	No	BUY	61	89¢	$54	0x8abd82…