Silent-Obsidian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$36.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$10.1K

Hit rate

83.0%

Resolved

1,302

Trades

25,176

lifetime

Volume

$5.28M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$210

Open exposure

$92.9K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 09:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 221 days

Categories

Politics

49% 81% +$19,051

Other

46% 80% +$20,447

Crypto

3% 69% -$2,949

Sports

1% 85% -$291

Tech

1% 88% -$267

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 206 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+9,971	$9,432	99¢	$9.9K	+$484	10-30 09:48
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+6,731	$6,101	92¢	$6.2K	+$58	10-29 17:48
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+8,045	$5,088	70¢	$5.7K	+$583	10-18 00:47
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+6,000	$5,480	94¢	$5.6K	+$130	10-08 11:34
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	+5,628	$3,244	87¢	$4.9K	+$1,653	10-22 18:38
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+5,000	$4,570	94¢	$4.7K	+$105	10-30 08:24
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	-4,791	-$4,083	96¢	$-4614	-$530	09-19 05:01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+9,478	$4,839	41¢	$3.8K	-$991	10-30 02:04
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,438	$3,054	81¢	$3.6K	+$541	10-28 11:03
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+5,200	$3,594	69¢	$3.6K	-$6	10-20 10:05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+5,000	$3,120	72¢	$3.6K	+$455	10-25 23:00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+3,038	$2,969	98¢	$3.0K	+$18	10-30 07:19
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	+3,522	$2,306	82¢	$2.9K	+$564	10-17 22:44
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-3,050	-$3,101	85¢	$-2593	+$508	10-29 17:53
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+3,248	$750	80¢	$2.6K	+$1,833	10-25 10:02
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	+3,710	$2,693	70¢	$2.6K	-$114	10-17 19:15
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+2,565	$1,103	94¢	$2.4K	+$1,308	10-29 17:48
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	+2,683	$1,660	76¢	$2.0K	+$386	10-30 06:56
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	+2,399	$1,847	80¢	$1.9K	+$60	10-13 14:53
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+2,122	$1,526	85¢	$1.8K	+$278	10-28 20:02
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+2,013	$1,637	86¢	$1.7K	+$94	10-28 23:58
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+2,500	$1,402	69¢	$1.7K	+$327	10-20 09:03
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+1,602	$962	100¢	$1.6K	+$632	10-29 17:41
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	No	-1,600	-$1,313	98¢	$-1566	-$252	07-15 01:52
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	-1,722	-$2,578	90¢	$-1557	+$1,022	10-29 17:56
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,574	$1,579	32¢	$1.5K	-$93	10-25 21:19
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	+1,574	$913	88¢	$1.4K	+$480	10-20 15:35
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	+1,577	$1,213	88¢	$1.4K	+$175	10-30 05:37
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,332	$1,111	98¢	$1.3K	+$188	10-25 23:31
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,373	$1,097	93¢	$1.3K	+$179	10-23 06:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	86	$77.4K	40,703	40,703	+0	Yes	+$2,917	09-21 13:23
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	129	$77.2K	40,268	38,598	+1,669	No	+$475	02-28 12:39
will tran cam tu be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	431	$65.6K	37,312	46,974	-9,662	No	+$452	01-23 07:24
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	215	$63.4K	40,325	36,009	+4,316	Yes	+$1,144	01-23 07:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	123	$62.0K	37,244	42,266	-5,021	Yes	+$6,601	03-03 00:13
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	236	$58.4K	29,475	34,605	-5,131	Yes	-$337	03-01 01:48
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	120	$57.1K	34,442	25,234	+9,208	Yes	+$2,248	09-23 09:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	104	$56.4K	53,893	28,143	+25,750	No	+$1,307	06-03 21:41
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	220	$52.1K	25,067	36,403	-11,336	No	+$291	01-23 07:51
will luong cuong be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	412	$49.0K	40,363	33,832	+6,531	No	+$175	01-22 14:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	104	$46.9K	33,806	23,835	+9,971	open	—	10-30 09:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	116	$46.4K	63,801	35,801	+28,000	No	+$371	06-28 02:12
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	41	$46.2K	24,600	24,600	+0	open	—	10-30 03:59
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	114	$44.8K	25,680	30,050	-4,369	No	+$226	01-31 16:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	55	$44.6K	17,100	28,600	-11,500	No	+$325	04-30 14:56
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	162	$42.4K	48,900	46,500	+2,400	No	+$453	06-29 12:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	55	$39.6K	46,202	50,182	-3,980	open	—	10-28 19:32
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	91	$37.7K	20,245	20,245	+0	open	—	10-23 03:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	89	$36.8K	32,297	24,297	+8,000	No	+$42	06-17 21:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	84	$36.4K	24,373	25,413	-1,040	Yes	+$720	04-08 16:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	152	$36.4K	28,300	29,026	-726	No	-$1,033	04-20 14:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	32	$35.2K	19,000	19,000	+0	open	—	09-17 12:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	35	$33.9K	25,439	9,162	+16,277	No	+$439	09-21 13:44
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	67	$30.9K	22,561	21,561	+1,000	Yes	-$43	06-29 19:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	42	$30.5K	32,254	7,771	+24,483	Yes	+$763	10-28 15:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	91	$26.8K	21,250	20,973	+277	No	+$915	03-28 13:13
Iran leadership change by October 31?	39	$26.6K	13,678	13,678	+0	open	—	10-25 21:59
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	46	$26.3K	11,583	14,900	-3,317	No	+$67	01-03 18:31
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	14	$26.3K	14,146	14,146	+0	open	—	10-26 14:53
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	44	$26.1K	17,450	9,169	+8,281	Yes	+$472	02-03 20:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:09:43	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	142	87¢	$124	0x7592be…
10-30 09:48:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xa6db92…
10-30 08:54:27	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	25	94¢	$23	0xb6b634…
10-30 08:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$908	0xe360a4…
10-30 08:31:10	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,563	86¢	$2,199	0x10ea0c…
10-30 08:24:49	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	550	93¢	$512	0x29aac8…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xd38861…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xb25324…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xac5a2b…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xa63878…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x8d71b1…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x8561c2…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x5f76f8…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x5244c7…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x4ead4e…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x46cd57…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x45cbab…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x4181e4…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x36eea6…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x1fd367…
10-30 08:24:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x049ddf…
10-30 08:20:46	Kash Patel out by October 31?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x4b34f9…
10-30 08:20:42	Kash Patel out by October 31?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x98bc13…
10-30 08:20:06	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0xa41dbf…
10-30 08:15:24	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0x6e1d06…
10-30 08:15:07	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x27a027…
10-30 08:15:06	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$71	0x88d80d…
10-30 08:13:37	Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	SELL	153	100¢	$153	0x5b8972…
10-30 08:08:54	Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?	No	BUY	123	88¢	$108	0xa21d00…
10-30 07:45:22	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0xdace30…
10-30 07:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$584	0x1440d7…
10-30 07:19:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	696	98¢	$682	0x9e8e1c…
10-30 07:16:46	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	238	58¢	$138	0xde0167…
10-30 06:56:45	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	116	80¢	$93	0xb09fa9…
10-30 06:56:45	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	110	80¢	$88	0x92f10d…
10-30 06:56:45	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	61	80¢	$49	0x66a3c3…
10-30 06:56:43	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	76	80¢	$61	0x07c43f…
10-30 06:26:06	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xcf6fc0…
10-30 06:04:00	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xfa509c…
10-30 06:02:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	526	100¢	$525	0x718957…
10-30 05:46:28	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,625	3¢	$42	0xfbf4b1…
10-30 05:37:09	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$17	0xc6006f…
10-30 05:37:09	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0x82623e…
10-30 04:12:33	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0xde52a7…
10-30 04:12:31	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	505	65¢	$328	0xea9422…
10-30 03:59:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	8,500	99¢	$8,449	0x15255a…
10-30 03:56:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	122	97¢	$119	0x441f47…
10-30 03:53:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x4d2c11…
10-30 03:53:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xf15faf…
10-30 03:53:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xdb42a1…
10-30 03:53:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6497e0…
10-30 03:53:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xf038ae…
10-30 03:23:36	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	607	3¢	$16	0xb6f0c8…
10-30 03:21:36	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x45366e…
10-30 03:21:36	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	48	3¢	$1	0x025b86…
10-30 03:02:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x79e8c0…
10-30 03:02:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xde2718…
10-30 02:58:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	800	98¢	$780	0xa3ff10…
10-30 02:56:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x6cd09d…
10-30 02:55:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xd9410a…
10-30 02:55:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xce9335…
10-30 02:52:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xbc3e11…
10-30 02:51:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xba1db3…
10-30 02:51:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7e9380…
10-30 02:51:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcd0a10…
10-30 02:46:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xce7046…
10-30 02:45:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0xf84d42…
10-30 02:34:45	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x377021…
10-30 02:34:37	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xcd86d9…
10-30 02:33:07	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	41	87¢	$35	0xd2e8a1…
10-30 02:32:07	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xda1680…
10-30 02:32:07	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xbffaab…
10-30 02:26:57	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x6629a5…
10-30 02:05:30	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xc1c4b5…
10-30 02:04:24	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	867	38¢	$331	0xc8f604…
10-30 01:43:31	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	964	78¢	$756	0x8a8448…
10-30 01:33:12	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0xbb5b41…
10-30 01:30:58	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1,500	95¢	$1,422	0xea42a9…
10-30 00:38:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xff12d5…
10-30 00:38:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	649	3¢	$17	0x9b9bb7…
10-29 23:21:37	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0xda579a…
10-29 23:06:49	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	26	58¢	$15	0x55f03d…
10-29 23:00:18	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	19¢	$19	0x89948c…
10-29 22:46:42	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	133	38¢	$51	0x29ca16…
10-29 22:43:01	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	104	3¢	$3	0x9a0e05…
10-29 22:42:55	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$5	0x5b7adc…
10-29 22:42:49	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$5	0x375644…
10-29 22:42:45	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$5	0xf39a24…
10-29 22:42:33	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$5	0xcc80b9…
10-29 22:21:42	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	333	58¢	$193	0x6ea43f…
10-29 21:22:07	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0xe09fcc…
10-29 20:06:27	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0xb90294…
10-29 17:56:34	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	463	72¢	$334	0xa99e3e…
10-29 17:56:02	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	78	89¢	$69	0xb0d2b2…
10-29 17:55:55	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x2a6cb7…
10-29 17:55:49	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0x960ca8…
10-29 17:55:49	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0x7cfa11…
10-29 17:55:22	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xfc0899…
10-29 17:55:05	Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x2e50b5…
10-29 17:54:07	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?	No	BUY	600	71¢	$426	0x7e97e0…