Realized P&L
+$85
Unrealized P&L
+$437
Hit rate
87.8%
Resolved
23
Trades
15,159
lifetime
Volume
$2.58M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$170
Open exposure
$11.7K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
50%
91%
+$1,010
Politics
45%
83%
$-925
Crypto
3%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 254 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | No | -1,559 | $-1,511 | 98¢ | $-1535 | $-24 | 06-04 06:12 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -1,480 | $-1,418 | 97¢ | $-1430 | $-12 | 06-06 14:43 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,500 | $1,245 | 84¢ | $1.3K | +$22 | 06-05 18:46 | |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | +1,202 | $1,038 | 88¢ | $1.1K | +$19 | 06-10 03:40 | |
| GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | +889 | $685 | 84¢ | $742 | +$58 | 05-28 15:32 | |
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | No | +722 | $660 | 99¢ | $717 | +$57 | 06-08 23:15 | |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | No | +1,078 | $890 | 64¢ | $696 | $-195 | 06-10 03:12 | |
| Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $620 | 70¢ | $695 | +$75 | 06-04 01:30 | |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | No | +700 | $668 | 99¢ | $691 | +$23 | 06-04 18:29 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | -723 | $-665 | 90¢ | $-651 | +$14 | 06-09 12:59 | |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | +602 | $548 | 90¢ | $545 | $-3 | 06-02 11:54 | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | +400 | $201 | 74¢ | $296 | +$95 | 06-01 16:10 | |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | +300 | $220 | 89¢ | $267 | +$47 | 06-03 13:13 | |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | No | +208 | $196 | 98¢ | $205 | +$9 | 06-03 06:57 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | -500 | $-135 | 32¢ | $-162 | $-28 | 06-03 01:44 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | -628 | $-132 | 24¢ | $-151 | $-19 | 06-03 06:52 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Yes | +1,552 | $273 | 10¢ | $151 | $-123 | 06-09 14:03 | |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | +147 | $137 | 94¢ | $138 | +$1 | 06-08 20:13 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | -218 | $-73 | 55¢ | $-119 | $-46 | 06-07 22:00 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | -410 | $-41 | 12¢ | $-47 | $-6 | 06-04 03:44 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | Yes | -5,733 | $-46 | 1¢ | $-43 | +$3 | 06-09 19:17 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | Yes | +823 | $24 | 3¢ | $28 | +$4 | 06-06 14:51 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Yes | -1,462 | $-32 | 1¢ | $-20 | +$12 | 06-02 13:21 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | No | +15 | $10 | 70¢ | $10 | +$1 | 06-01 09:58 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Yes | +0 | $-376 | 12¢ | $0 | +$376 | 06-08 12:16 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | -0 | $-75 | 18¢ | $-0 | +$75 | 06-01 16:07 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 129 | $77.2K | 40,268 | 38,598 | +1,669 | open | — | 02-28 12:39 |
| will tran cam tu be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party | 431 | $65.6K | 37,312 | 46,974 | -9,662 | open | — | 01-23 07:24 |
| will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party | 215 | $63.4K | 40,325 | 36,009 | +4,316 | open | — | 01-23 07:28 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 123 | $62.0K | 37,244 | 42,266 | -5,021 | open | — | 03-03 00:13 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 236 | $58.4K | 29,475 | 34,605 | -5,131 | open | — | 03-01 01:48 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 98 | $55.9K | 52,893 | 27,143 | +25,750 | open | — | 06-03 21:41 |
| will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party | 220 | $52.1K | 25,067 | 36,403 | -11,336 | open | — | 01-23 07:51 |
| will luong cuong be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party | 412 | $49.0K | 40,363 | 33,832 | +6,531 | open | — | 01-22 14:09 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 114 | $44.8K | 25,680 | 30,050 | -4,369 | open | — | 01-31 16:46 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 55 | $44.6K | 17,100 | 28,600 | -11,500 | open | — | 04-30 14:56 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 84 | $36.4K | 24,373 | 25,413 | -1,040 | open | — | 04-08 16:20 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 152 | $36.4K | 28,300 | 29,026 | -726 | open | — | 04-20 14:36 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 91 | $26.8K | 21,250 | 20,973 | +277 | open | — | 03-28 13:13 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 46 | $26.3K | 11,583 | 14,900 | -3,317 | open | — | 01-03 18:31 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 44 | $26.1K | 17,450 | 9,169 | +8,281 | open | — | 02-03 20:03 |
| fact check maduro capture staged | 80 | $24.5K | 15,264 | 10,011 | +5,253 | open | — | 03-31 00:05 |
| will trump talk to vladimir putin in january | 109 | $23.5K | 14,463 | 13,120 | +1,344 | open | — | 02-03 20:32 |
| will axiom be accused of insider trading | 93 | $23.4K | 28,692 | 13,707 | +14,985 | open | — | 02-26 13:53 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 94 | $22.8K | 17,783 | 12,381 | +5,401 | open | — | 03-10 14:54 |
| will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election | 93 | $21.8K | 10,168 | 11,825 | -1,656 | open | — | 02-08 13:09 |
| will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january | 137 | $21.6K | 10,749 | 13,878 | -3,129 | open | — | 01-30 01:58 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | 181 | $21.4K | 10,125 | 11,752 | -1,627 | open | — | 01-30 08:53 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | 99 | $20.0K | 18,355 | 12,239 | +6,116 | open | — | 05-10 15:20 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 69 | $19.6K | 14,400 | 12,055 | +2,345 | open | — | 02-03 04:54 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 81 | $18.6K | 16,068 | 10,376 | +5,693 | open | — | 02-15 06:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 38 | $18.4K | 8,198 | 13,243 | -5,045 | open | — | 02-01 05:36 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 25 | $15.2K | 9,400 | 6,055 | +3,345 | open | — | 04-21 11:09 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | 31 | $14.3K | 9,031 | 7,500 | +1,531 | open | — | 05-29 07:04 |
| new stranger things episode released by wednesday | 20 | $14.1K | 12,342 | 2,000 | +10,342 | open | — | 01-08 01:24 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 56 | $14.1K | 9,900 | 8,800 | +1,100 | open | — | 03-28 02:51 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 646 | $101.8K | 21,676 | 06-10 02:49 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 632 | $69.9M | 104,545 | 06-10 04:04 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | 621 | $324.7K | 28,930 | 06-09 16:21 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 612 | $3.64M | 65,623 | 06-10 03:50 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 587 | $562.9K | 5,481 | 06-09 13:35 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 574 | $1.19M | 100,148 | 06-01 05:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 545 | $47.0K | 27,069 | 06-08 19:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 521 | $567.9K | 56,225 | 03-28 18:40 |