Silent-Obsidian 0x57b00c…8e76f4 Create alert
whale hot
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Realized P&L (90d)
+$13.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$10.8K
Hit rate
81.6%
Resolved (90d)
332
Trades (90d)
7,010
26,996 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.94M
$5.65M lifetime
Avg / trade
$209
Open exposure
$92.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-13 05:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 233 days
Categories
Politics
49% 81% +$37,270
Other
46% 81% +$21,401
Crypto
3% 69% -$2,949
Sports
1% 85% -$291
Tech
1% 82% -$587
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$100
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 562 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +10,300 $6,751 66¢ $6.7K -$5 11-03 12:47
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,575 $5,493 100¢ $5.6K +$63 11-12 09:36
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +6,504 $4,238 84¢ $5.5K +$1,257 11-12 15:13
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026? No +5,608 $5,277 97¢ $5.4K +$171 11-06 23:18
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -5,050 -$4,821 94¢ $-4722 +$99 11-02 08:48
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -4,791 -$4,083 96¢ $-4599 -$516 09-19 05:01
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +6,675 $3,626 67¢ $4.4K +$823 11-09 16:59
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +6,661 $4,078 65¢ $4.3K +$261 11-12 08:03
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? No +4,386 $3,717 95¢ $4.2K +$446 11-12 04:19
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +6,317 $4,346 63¢ $4.0K -$366 11-12 08:03
Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by November 30, 2026? No +4,000 $3,824 97¢ $3.9K +$52 11-13 05:33
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +4,145 $3,475 90¢ $3.8K +$277 11-04 20:05
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? No +3,550 $1,391 94¢ $3.3K +$1,929 11-07 08:44
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? No +3,779 $2,730 86¢ $3.2K +$519 11-04 20:30
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +2,500 $2,431 100¢ $2.5K +$61 11-07 01:57
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +2,500 $2,322 99¢ $2.5K +$145 11-12 20:36
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +2,826 $1,668 86¢ $2.4K +$777 11-09 18:35
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,251 $2,075 99¢ $2.2K +$144 11-13 02:32
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026? No +2,369 $2,146 93¢ $2.2K +$57 11-12 20:56
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +2,000 $2,281 99¢ $2.0K -$292 11-06 10:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +2,000 $1,569 93¢ $1.9K +$300 11-05 17:15
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No +1,842 $417 96¢ $1.8K +$1,342 11-12 08:39
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +2,000 $1,755 86¢ $1.7K -$45 11-12 20:51
AI bubble burst in 2026? No -1,800 -$2,663 93¢ $-1681 +$982 11-12 15:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14? No +1,630 $1,545 99¢ $1.6K +$75 11-12 14:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +1,743 $1,424 92¢ $1.6K +$188 11-12 18:49
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No -1,600 -$1,313 98¢ $-1574 -$260 07-15 01:52
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +1,270 -$871 96¢ $1.2K +$2,083 11-13 03:17
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +1,600 $1,166 72¢ $1.2K -$6 11-13 04:13
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +1,117 $786 95¢ $1.1K +$272 11-07 01:52