Anxious-Run — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.16K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.50K

Hit rate

36.4%

Resolved

127

Trades

1,830

lifetime

Volume

$351.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

$3.50K

9 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 11-05 19:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

89% 40% -$5,405

Other

11% 64% +$2,201

Crypto

0% 100% +$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	-3,960	-$1,968	86¢	$-3386	-$1,418	06-06 11:23
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$48	100¢	$100	+$52	11-05 18:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$82	15¢	$6	-$76	06-08 09:46
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	88¢	$3	+$1	05-30 04:31
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$9	99¢	$1	-$7	06-08 09:46
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+3	$6	12¢	$0	-$5	05-31 21:53
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	+100	$51	0¢	$0	-$51	11-05 17:53
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$0	1¢	$0	$0	05-28 13:30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	+0	-$2	18¢	$0	+$2	11-05 02:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	71	$55.6K	47,742	48,742	-1,000	No	-$1,026	05-28 14:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	20	$18.2K	14,285	14,285	+0	No	+$25	05-23 18:41
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	12	$16.7K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	+$0	04-20 14:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	41	$16.2K	17,707	17,707	+0	No	-$851	05-25 22:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	24	$15.0K	9,206	7,806	+1,400	No	+$60	06-07 13:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	84	$14.2K	10,451	11,989	-1,538	No	-$460	05-23 23:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	39	$13.9K	7,223	7,223	+0	No	-$253	04-30 12:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	80	$10.2K	7,361	6,604	+757	No	+$140	05-25 23:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$9.8K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$170	03-16 08:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	19	$9.8K	10,259	10,259	+0	Yes	-$429	04-24 20:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	18	$9.5K	6,028	6,028	+0	No	-$448	05-28 14:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	116	$9.3K	7,596	11,516	-3,920	open	—	06-08 09:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	18	$8.4K	18,436	18,436	+0	No	$0	04-23 17:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	62	$7.6K	6,697	9,197	-2,500	No	-$781	06-04 20:34
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	112	$7.4K	7,626	7,626	+0	open	—	06-05 00:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	4	$7.3K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$65	05-20 12:23
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	5	$7.1K	4,131	6,131	-2,000	Yes	-$376	05-20 12:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	24	$6.3K	5,050	6,350	-1,300	No	+$850	05-24 14:30
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$6.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	04-28 15:03
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	80	$5.9K	8,012	3,967	+4,046	Yes	-$3,426	06-06 22:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$5.7K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	-$50	04-28 13:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	11	$5.4K	4,273	4,273	+0	No	+$0	04-30 17:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	6	$4.7K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$335	05-24 20:47
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	17	$3.8K	32,626	2,626	+30,000	No	-$183	04-29 18:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	13	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$20	04-09 02:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	9	$3.0K	8,200	8,200	+0	No	-$16	05-05 11:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$3.0K	1,080	2,130	-1,050	Yes	+$932	04-30 11:15
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	4	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-28 14:05
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	56	$2.7K	2,480	2,379	+101	No	+$1,039	10-30 07:43
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	18	$2.3K	1,171	1,171	+0	No	+$1	08-08 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 22:10:57	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xc9b2b4…
11-06 22:10:40	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,053	2¢	$20	0x8157b0…
11-05 19:06:09	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	5¢	$15	0xdce0c3…
11-05 18:21:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x81e3db…
11-05 17:53:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xca72a8…
11-05 17:13:58	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15?	No	SELL	197	0¢	$0	0x3d4bc8…
11-05 16:21:55	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15?	No	BUY	499	1¢	$5	0x4828f0…
11-05 16:00:39	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9034f9…
11-05 14:46:31	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x276330…
11-05 14:33:30	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x45c8d0…
11-05 07:06:07	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x8faa12…
11-05 07:05:36	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x65937f…
11-05 03:06:37	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x22f819…
11-05 02:22:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	372	35¢	$130	0xc42e68…
11-05 02:09:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	196	35¢	$68	0xbfb9ab…
11-05 02:06:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	223	35¢	$78	0xfc4994…
11-05 02:06:15	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	185	35¢	$65	0x4bdea4…
11-05 02:06:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x1da095…
11-05 01:55:04	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xa77874…
11-04 23:48:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xcb2d93…
11-04 22:02:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	75	34¢	$25	0xc162ec…
11-04 21:44:39	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	124	34¢	$42	0xe637c0…
11-04 21:23:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x84c883…
11-04 21:18:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	185	35¢	$65	0xedbdd4…
11-04 21:17:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xc7b373…
11-04 20:53:01	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x8c3689…
11-04 20:08:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x92bbb8…
11-04 19:58:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0x711395…
11-04 19:58:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	191	38¢	$72	0x58cba3…
11-04 19:39:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0xaea690…
11-04 19:05:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0xf4ba4f…
11-04 19:05:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0x726374…
11-04 18:55:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x738e50…
11-04 02:02:16	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	588	99¢	$581	0x5f1930…
11-04 02:02:04	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	212	99¢	$210	0x1817b8…
11-04 01:39:09	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	92	79¢	$73	0xc0f994…
11-04 01:37:52	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x60530c…
11-04 01:23:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xb8883f…
11-04 01:23:24	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x6353b3…
11-04 01:23:06	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x3ce45d…
11-04 01:14:00	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x27823c…
11-04 01:12:40	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x720047…
11-04 01:07:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xda10b1…
11-04 01:05:13	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x705c99…
11-03 23:12:46	Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?	No	SELL	62	6¢	$4	0x050c9d…
11-03 23:09:28	Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?	No	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0x759267…
11-03 22:10:43	Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xcb8590…
11-03 18:21:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	325	0¢	$1	0x1518f8…
11-03 17:30:40	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x337a4b…
11-03 15:52:10	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	660	0¢	$1	0x40ffd3…
11-03 13:00:28	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	42	13¢	$5	0xad9125…
11-03 11:28:21	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	506	98¢	$496	0x791a4c…
11-03 11:28:15	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xfd5773…
11-03 11:28:13	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0x39810d…
11-03 10:37:58	Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 3?	Yes	SELL	35	90¢	$32	0x3c303e…
11-03 10:18:51	Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 3?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x84f8ad…
11-03 07:44:01	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	93	15¢	$14	0x158289…
11-03 06:35:28	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xb1833d…
11-03 01:27:01	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xb8e1f9…
11-03 00:54:10	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	35	15¢	$5	0xbeaca6…
11-03 00:54:10	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x924f1a…
11-03 00:24:16	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9def37…
11-03 00:20:31	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0x65e04f…
11-03 00:17:40	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x1c369b…
11-02 23:53:34	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x531001…
11-02 23:42:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	440	98¢	$431	0x544c0e…
11-02 23:18:42	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x74fbc4…
11-02 21:21:15	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xf96193…
11-02 20:03:22	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x2d602a…
11-02 03:09:28	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xc08090…
11-01 01:33:16	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0x35f499…
11-01 01:24:12	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	270	4¢	$11	0x06bd0c…
11-01 01:23:28	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xa15d03…
10-31 23:50:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	SELL	110	52¢	$57	0x8a18ce…
10-31 23:47:37	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x7bfe55…
10-31 23:34:36	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x43ba4d…
10-31 23:17:10	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,018	0¢	$1	0x5851ff…
10-31 23:11:31	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,018	0¢	$1	0x055dfd…
10-31 19:55:31	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	778	1¢	$7	0x7bd88b…
10-31 19:52:54	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,222	1¢	$20	0xa75544…
10-31 19:23:10	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$16	0x55c756…
10-31 19:12:25	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x3d8a7d…
10-31 18:55:01	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	6¢	$28	0x011892…
10-31 18:16:25	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	208	3¢	$6	0xac3737…
10-31 18:16:19	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	292	3¢	$9	0x7021d0…
10-31 16:06:22	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	433	69¢	$298	0x164a4a…
10-31 16:06:13	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	791	69¢	$543	0xac01f6…
10-31 16:06:07	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	60¢	$300	0xe961ab…
10-31 16:01:45	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x23f5c7…
10-31 16:01:28	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x787f7e…
10-31 16:01:18	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x7b7add…
10-31 16:01:16	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xcbc271…
10-31 16:01:16	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	875	1¢	$9	0x56a3d1…
10-31 16:01:04	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x85ba11…
10-31 16:00:45	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0xa5ce70…
10-31 16:00:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	5¢	$12	0x925ca9…
10-31 15:42:57	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x80258f…
10-30 23:24:22	Tusk out by December 31?	No	SELL	113	79¢	$89	0x748930…
10-30 23:09:21	Tusk out by December 31?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x2348a7…
10-30 23:09:13	Tusk out by December 31?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xd4390b…