Raw-Steam — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.07K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

17.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,626

lifetime

Volume

$137.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 16:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

54% — —

Politics

43% 33% $-1,073

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	46	$3.1K	2,058	2,066	-8	open	—	04-07 22:57
will february 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	46	$3.0K	2,148	2,148	+0	open	—	03-11 06:51
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	28	$2.6K	1,816	1,880	-65	open	—	08-10 06:46
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	10	$2.2K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-27 17:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,500	1,000	+500	open	—	04-24 16:33
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	7	$2.1K	1,520	1,520	+0	open	—	01-04 05:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	7	$2.1K	1,193	1,200	-7	open	—	02-11 15:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	20	$2.0K	1,305	1,105	+200	open	—	04-21 20:16
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	13	$2.0K	2,920	1,020	+1,900	open	—	07-14 11:16
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	10	$1.8K	800	1,236	-436	open	—	06-27 05:46
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	8	$1.8K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	02-27 20:57
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	7	$1.7K	1,300	656	+644	open	—	03-24 08:10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	11	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-25 16:19
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	8	$1.6K	1,053	1,100	-47	open	—	07-02 17:48
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	4	$1.5K	900	900	+0	open	—	03-04 14:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-10 20:15
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	4	$1.5K	1,200	500	+700	open	—	05-28 14:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	11	$1.4K	700	1,600	-900	open	—	07-02 17:55
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	8	$1.3K	780	780	+0	open	—	05-20 14:59
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	4	$1.3K	1,247	647	+600	open	—	04-12 14:29
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	9	$1.3K	900	900	+0	open	—	01-23 17:22
Kash Patel out by December 31?	13	$1.3K	1,402	902	+500	open	—	08-08 17:16
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	6	$1.3K	1,054	507	+547	open	—	04-13 17:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	17	$1.3K	1,000	626	+374	open	—	02-25 18:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	29	$1.3K	1,500	2,200	-700	open	—	08-01 12:46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	8	$1.3K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-29 16:18
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	7	$1.3K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-08 05:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	19	$1.2K	700	700	+0	open	—	01-16 16:17
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	200	1,006	-806	open	—	06-20 16:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$1.2K	400	900	-500	open	—	06-23 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 16:04:21	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	220	17¢	$37	0x700c5a…
08-11 09:54:40	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	31	70¢	$21	0xe19aa7…
08-11 08:10:04	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0xc060e6…
08-11 08:06:36	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x140de0…
08-11 07:15:22	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0x6de3de…
08-11 06:26:16	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x6d9815…
08-11 06:25:49	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x215694…
08-11 06:14:18	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xb75813…
08-10 22:21:13	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0xa20ef6…
08-10 17:06:52	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	49	17¢	$8	0x49de1b…
08-10 16:47:30	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x1fbfd7…
08-10 15:24:43	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xd8ea68…
08-10 13:50:06	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x4d5731…
08-10 13:41:03	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0xb7f71e…
08-10 13:40:40	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0xd53331…
08-10 10:18:52	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	SELL	33	70¢	$23	0xed383e…
08-10 09:57:33	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	37	17¢	$6	0xd453d5…
08-10 06:46:30	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0xc35d8b…
08-09 19:48:09	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0x8c6c5e…
08-09 15:01:49	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	478	84¢	$402	0x21712d…
08-09 05:22:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	400	77¢	$308	0x2ef525…
08-09 00:28:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	300	83¢	$249	0xaadcba…
08-08 17:16:43	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0x979e37…
08-08 16:20:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	55¢	$550	0x815dd7…
08-07 20:54:21	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	700	80¢	$560	0xb3ac65…
08-06 23:15:08	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0xe5cb75…
08-06 07:39:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	196	77¢	$151	0x416c7f…
08-05 16:50:29	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	300	46¢	$138	0x0d063b…
08-05 02:17:44	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	8¢	$4	0x3172f2…
08-04 20:53:18	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xdf8f17…
08-04 20:45:17	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0xcb54f8…
08-04 18:36:33	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xf1c3c4…
08-04 18:08:39	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	290	8¢	$23	0x5755b1…
08-04 09:56:03	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x07903b…
08-02 11:56:54	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xd662db…
08-02 06:57:26	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	26	71¢	$19	0x05115a…
08-02 06:57:14	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0x8b572c…
08-02 06:52:18	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x948af0…
08-02 06:52:17	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	146	71¢	$104	0x58f3da…
08-02 02:12:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0x5bf622…
08-01 19:12:02	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	133	45¢	$60	0x226395…
08-01 19:11:47	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0xa1b05c…
08-01 19:10:48	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xdf4bd1…
08-01 12:46:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	191	53¢	$101	0x04c2fd…
08-01 12:13:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xf5796c…
08-01 10:28:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	307	53¢	$163	0x9a34d3…
08-01 07:45:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x0188a5…
08-01 07:10:48	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x25a7c7…
08-01 02:03:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa42d20…
07-31 01:31:23	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	77	72¢	$56	0x40454a…
07-30 23:20:17	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x778478…
07-30 23:20:17	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x6318e1…
07-30 23:12:56	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc65f7e…
07-30 23:12:54	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xaa0ce5…
07-30 23:12:54	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x39e15e…
07-30 23:01:17	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x8459cf…
07-30 23:00:15	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x9bdfa9…
07-30 23:00:00	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	No	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x4b0a44…
07-30 16:06:21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0xf3646f…
07-30 09:46:51	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x033e73…
07-28 19:17:17	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x9b8cd1…
07-27 22:41:10	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x0b64eb…
07-27 20:35:54	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	190	30¢	$57	0x84db4f…
07-27 12:50:21	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	95	72¢	$69	0x31b524…
07-27 07:50:15	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0xe087be…
07-26 19:01:51	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x90b57b…
07-26 12:15:42	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	38	72¢	$28	0xe35e15…
07-23 16:33:25	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	412	12¢	$49	0xfa07b2…
07-23 13:14:06	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x8ef090…
07-23 11:13:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x68897f…
07-23 10:41:49	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xbc9307…
07-23 06:17:03	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	56	70¢	$40	0x33f0f6…
07-22 22:34:22	us government bans an open source ai model in 2026 20260703221501747	No	BUY	174	71¢	$124	0x5b533e…
07-22 22:17:25	us government bans an open source ai model in 2026 20260703221501747	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x9ab63d…
07-22 21:29:37	us government bans an open source ai model in 2026 20260703221501747	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc7a5d2…
07-22 20:14:42	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	375	70¢	$263	0xa8b0ad…
07-22 15:16:15	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	12¢	$27	0xa4ae8d…
07-22 09:00:10	us government bans an open source ai model in 2026 20260703221501747	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1ded92…
07-22 08:39:51	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0xcfdac5…
07-22 08:27:27	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x67fd0f…
07-22 06:31:03	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	12¢	$18	0x2c6e60…
07-22 03:55:04	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x706736…
07-21 21:19:52	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	124	73¢	$91	0x0a14cc…
07-21 17:41:09	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x1e5c7e…
07-21 15:22:39	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	300	71¢	$212	0x13a98f…
07-21 14:41:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0xea4c9f…
07-21 10:27:15	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	12¢	$18	0x66c075…
07-21 03:38:34	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	269	72¢	$194	0x0172fd…
07-21 03:26:27	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	31	72¢	$22	0xcbebfe…
07-20 01:53:51	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	BUY	95	80¢	$76	0xc428ff…
07-19 16:40:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	250	50¢	$125	0x318639…
07-19 14:50:15	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x65d95d…
07-19 13:32:12	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xcadd9f…
07-19 13:32:12	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x953b99…
07-19 02:10:09	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xfe87c3…
07-18 01:04:04	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xeef78c…
07-17 22:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	250	49¢	$122	0x4b388f…
07-17 04:37:09	Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?	Yes	SELL	276	42¢	$116	0x0f815c…
07-16 21:20:16	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x7848f7…
07-15 23:01:29	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x9853ab…