Black-Bathroom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$599

Unrealized P&L

+$129

Hit rate

26.0%

Resolved

Trades

289

lifetime

Volume

$16.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

$651

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-17 03:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Sports

36% 60% -$44

Politics

32% 33% -$550

Other

15% 78% +$4

Tech

13% — —

Crypto

5% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+337	$266	99¢	$332	+$66	06-30 08:43
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	+127	$81	96¢	$121	+$40	08-22 14:51
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+109	$86	98¢	$107	+$21	07-08 06:03
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	+92	$88	99¢	$91	+$2	07-08 06:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3.6K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	-$2	06-30 08:40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	67	$2.6K	14,367	14,364	+3	Yes	-$246	05-21 09:29
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.3K	5,550	5,550	+0	No	+$105	06-23 01:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	71	$1.2K	15,891	14,429	+1,462	Yes	-$210	05-21 08:12
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	7	$900	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	09-19 09:43
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$757	4,252	4,252	+0	No	-$187	06-23 01:06
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	7	$755	1,588	1,588	+0	open	—	09-19 09:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$606	610	0	+610	Yes	+$4	04-21 11:22
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$498	500	0	+500	No	+$2	01-28 16:07
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	17	$458	900	900	+0	No	-$70	08-22 14:51
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$398	0	400	-400	No	-$2	06-23 01:07
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	7	$398	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	09-20 17:28
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	30	$350	255	255	+0	No	-$1	10-17 03:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$326	200	200	+0	Yes	-$10	05-22 02:51
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	5	$305	650	50	+600	Yes	+$3	10-16 16:04
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$266	337	0	+337	open	—	06-30 08:43
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$195	200	0	+200	Yes	+$5	02-27 14:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	5	$184	400	400	+0	No	-$24	07-08 09:31
will openais valuation hit low 500b by december 31 785 717	1	$155	185	0	+185	open	—	06-12 09:30
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	3	$147	6,419	6,419	+0	open	—	09-18 01:30
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	7	$132	400	400	+0	No	+$4	07-08 08:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	8	$131	4,897	4,897	+0	No	+$6	07-08 14:35
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	12	$126	200	200	+0	open	—	10-16 10:40
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	1	$111	112	0	+112	No	+$1	04-08 16:04
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$101	7,780	7,780	+0	No	+$39	04-08 16:02
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	4	$98	200	200	+0	No	-$10	07-08 08:19
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	2	$94	48	48	+0	open	—	10-06 01:09
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	1	$88	92	0	+92	open	—	07-08 06:03
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$86	109	0	+109	open	—	07-08 06:03
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$81	127	0	+127	open	—	08-22 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 03:31:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	119	68¢	$81	0x8b6e81…
10-17 02:14:20	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x5a518c…
10-16 23:44:08	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xb382fa…
10-16 21:03:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x6d7afd…
10-16 21:03:09	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x537b08…
10-16 20:58:54	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xce2df4…
10-16 20:58:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xdc1916…
10-16 20:58:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x455be4…
10-16 20:58:47	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9d6bd3…
10-16 20:56:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x97cd55…
10-16 20:56:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xfabf83…
10-16 20:56:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xffd475…
10-16 19:13:22	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x6265bc…
10-16 19:09:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x929abf…
10-16 18:20:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xe15934…
10-16 18:18:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x0ca1a0…
10-16 18:16:57	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xdb848f…
10-16 18:16:54	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x662628…
10-16 18:16:00	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xbc08e2…
10-16 18:14:18	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xaefba7…
10-16 18:12:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xee8515…
10-16 18:12:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xaed4bc…
10-16 18:05:41	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x611946…
10-16 18:04:12	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x284eba…
10-16 18:03:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xb13abf…
10-16 17:29:12	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x2de16f…
10-16 16:04:07	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x07c087…
10-16 14:08:46	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x243090…
10-16 10:40:36	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	29¢	$12	0x900d3a…
10-16 10:39:21	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x87cff3…
10-16 10:09:15	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x431023…
10-16 09:08:25	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0xfad459…
10-16 08:08:09	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0x9a9026…
10-16 08:08:01	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0x2f1b35…
10-16 08:07:55	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0x9d46c2…
10-16 08:07:49	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0x99c857…
10-16 08:01:10	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x1ea313…
10-16 07:36:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	106	69¢	$73	0x2f2fba…
10-16 07:35:03	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0xf684a0…
10-16 06:55:57	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xdb9c8c…
10-16 06:55:57	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	140	33¢	$46	0x8d90fa…
10-16 06:55:57	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x5b8cae…
10-16 06:55:57	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x120f80…
10-16 06:45:10	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xdc829f…
10-16 06:42:33	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x46b698…
10-16 05:12:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x1c0b93…
10-16 03:28:10	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	299	9¢	$27	0x07ebf2…
10-16 03:02:52	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x87c95e…
10-16 02:59:09	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xb26120…
10-16 02:52:40	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x3822cf…
10-16 02:51:48	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xb7f433…
10-06 01:09:17	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x68666b…
09-20 17:28:04	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	370	7¢	$26	0x30ef5e…
09-20 08:30:45	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,630	8¢	$130	0x775645…
09-19 09:43:32	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	SELL	800	19¢	$152	0x97d76e…
09-19 09:43:23	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	888	15¢	$133	0x8b0128…
09-18 14:39:34	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x2c7c3a…
09-18 07:41:58	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	BUY	800	20¢	$160	0x60ec2c…
09-18 07:29:51	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	SELL	600	19¢	$114	0x04f00c…
09-18 06:44:27	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	BUY	600	19¢	$114	0xcebe7e…
09-18 06:43:37	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	Yes	BUY	488	16¢	$78	0x76d5c8…
09-18 06:42:45	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$64	0xc90239…
09-18 06:42:31	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0x7d57d9…
09-18 06:10:22	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	SELL	1,000	18¢	$180	0x94e7cf…
09-18 06:10:03	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$70	0xf3f529…
09-18 06:10:03	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xf3f529…
09-18 03:03:15	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x39a108…
09-18 02:13:10	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	600	7¢	$42	0x9228e3…
09-18 02:07:52	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0x8bbc4e…
09-18 02:06:57	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	600	8¢	$48	0x5d77e8…
09-18 01:40:12	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2029	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x80a94f…
09-18 01:38:07	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2028	Yes	BUY	500	14¢	$70	0x2fee04…
09-18 01:37:39	will openai announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	600	9¢	$54	0xd0352f…
09-18 01:30:10	Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	64	1¢	$0	0x9f5037…
08-22 14:51:54	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	127	64¢	$81	0xf7aa0e…
08-22 14:51:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	9¢	$26	0x07a5dd…
07-09 13:49:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	27¢	$16	0xaea808…
07-09 13:25:35	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	27¢	$41	0xe26792…
07-09 13:21:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	27¢	$24	0x20e501…
07-08 23:40:28	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	28¢	$4	0x3d6a3d…
07-08 20:48:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	28¢	$4	0x3ac776…
07-08 18:01:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	293	28¢	$82	0x65e020…
07-08 14:35:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	4,533	1¢	$63	0xf0e5c3…
07-08 14:35:38	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	1,166	2¢	$23	0x7f9c65…
07-08 14:22:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xf13b52…
07-08 14:11:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0xcff8c1…
07-08 13:20:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x4d21c6…
07-08 13:14:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	263	1¢	$4	0x9aa8ac…
07-08 13:13:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x50a76d…
07-08 13:06:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	434	2¢	$9	0x7e502b…
07-08 12:48:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x04e617…
07-08 12:23:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	28¢	$10	0xfd0f73…
07-08 12:21:55	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	800	2¢	$19	0x12ff39…
07-08 12:08:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0xe1d042…
07-08 12:08:31	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	28¢	$51	0xc610ff…
07-08 11:46:17	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0xf816b2…
07-08 10:36:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0xbaca60…
07-08 10:16:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	367	1¢	$4	0xbecbef…
07-08 10:16:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	1,527	1¢	$17	0x58364e…
07-08 09:36:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x68aed1…