Realized P&L
+$181
Unrealized P&L
-$851
Hit rate
59.1%
Resolved
24
Trades
7,527
lifetime
Volume
$175.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$79.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-05
last 10-27 08:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
43% 40% +$1,938
Other
42% 40% -$1,328
Crypto
12% 25% -$429
Tech
1% — —
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
53 active days in 12wk • peak 461 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +29,878 $8,002 24¢ $7.3K -$682 10-14 21:01
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +10,339 $3,954 62¢ $6.5K +$2,508 10-21 14:52
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +12,037 $5,450 44¢ $5.3K -$105 10-24 18:47
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +5,930 $5,350 88¢ $5.2K -$132 10-27 02:47
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +4,944 $4,159 94¢ $4.6K +$463 10-17 11:49
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +12,619 $5,477 34¢ $4.4K -$1,124 09-16 21:39
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No +4,730 $3,892 92¢ $4.3K +$436 10-15 03:50
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,519 $5,813 38¢ $3.9K -$1,868 10-27 04:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +4,586 $3,813 84¢ $3.9K +$62 10-17 04:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +3,800 $3,479 92¢ $3.5K +$36 10-23 12:14
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +6,830 $3,323 46¢ $3.2K -$147 10-26 15:03
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +3,101 $2,511 84¢ $2.6K +$94 10-26 23:03
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +3,047 $2,494 76¢ $2.3K -$163 10-22 22:46
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +11,098 $3,382 16¢ $1.8K -$1,551 10-08 12:53
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +18,266 $1,621 10¢ $1.8K +$178 10-26 22:33
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,846 $1,661 92¢ $1.7K +$38 10-16 18:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +1,641 $1,469 100¢ $1.6K +$167 09-25 17:00
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +1,553 $1,253 92¢ $1.4K +$180 10-02 02:54
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,833 $1,587 77¢ $1.4K -$176 10-27 09:08
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +1,505 $1,317 89¢ $1.3K +$20 10-23 19:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +8,559 $1,619 16¢ $1.3K -$292 10-22 22:07
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3,099 $1,490 42¢ $1.3K -$191 10-27 02:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +15,800 $850 8¢ $1.2K +$335 10-25 03:58
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +1,401 $1,120 82¢ $1.1K +$22 10-24 05:50
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,361 $864 84¢ $1.1K +$273 10-22 00:53
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? Yes +3,580 $1,192 30¢ $1.1K -$136 10-23 15:07
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,295 $1,035 78¢ $1.0K -$31 10-23 14:22
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,611 $821 58¢ $936 +$115 10-26 21:58
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No +1,078 $198 84¢ $909 +$710 10-09 14:33
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +883 $652 86¢ $763 +$111 10-14 18:35