Confused-Spice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,740

lifetime

Volume

$18.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-18 13:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

53% 44% $-14

Other

35% 45% +$62

Sports

7% 100% +$16

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	12	$488	401	401	+0	open	—	02-05 13:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	11	$360	391	277	+114	open	—	03-23 12:33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	21	$315	437	161	+276	open	—	04-03 12:13
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	21	$283	281	177	+104	open	—	04-02 02:15
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	18	$247	382	60	+322	open	—	03-24 23:54
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	14	$243	472	472	+0	open	—	01-30 01:28
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	2	$204	110	110	+0	open	—	03-23 15:56
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$203	111	111	+0	open	—	03-23 15:55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	15	$202	293	130	+163	open	—	02-23 00:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	7	$162	133	133	+0	open	—	03-06 05:00
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	11	$153	159	159	+0	open	—	04-12 00:18
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	7	$148	159	125	+33	open	—	04-09 06:40
russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10	4	$144	121	100	+21	open	—	04-03 22:27
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	9	$139	107	90	+17	open	—	04-21 04:14
will the us embassy in venezuela reopen by march 31	15	$138	134	99	+35	open	—	02-22 05:25
will bahrain strike iran by march 31	4	$137	79	79	+0	open	—	03-13 23:19
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	10	$121	195	0	+195	Yes	+$74	04-13 07:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$116	194	157	+37	open	—	03-24 01:24
will iran strike israel on march 9	2	$116	66	66	+0	open	—	03-09 10:48
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	13	$112	121	80	+41	open	—	03-07 15:16
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	11	$111	104	104	+0	open	—	04-07 09:06
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	6	$111	73	73	+0	open	—	03-09 14:17
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$107	179	179	+0	open	—	04-03 01:07
will iran strike israel on march 10	3	$105	88	88	+0	open	—	03-11 23:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$105	139	139	+0	open	—	04-20 01:12
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	14	$103	93	93	+0	open	—	03-16 06:17
will the united states win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	12	$102	113	72	+41	open	—	02-19 00:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$100	110	0	+110	open	—	03-07 14:20
Iran leadership change by March 13?	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	03-09 09:56
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	2	$100	114	0	+114	open	—	03-16 07:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 13:32:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	11¢	$5	0xc9fc3c…
06-07 00:32:01	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	87	51¢	$45	0x7638c2…
06-02 14:52:51	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0xfd707a…
05-30 12:33:19	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0xbd6e68…
05-24 00:36:49	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	26	33¢	$9	0xb4b398…
05-11 23:33:55	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xef5665…
05-11 05:23:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0xd727b8…
05-06 06:43:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x3641aa…
05-06 01:03:14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x4b6bb9…
05-05 00:52:14	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0x748ebe…
05-04 03:42:26	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x5fc2dd…
05-04 03:41:00	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	BUY	14	62¢	$8	0x3f2e1d…
05-03 05:54:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	21	74¢	$15	0x79adcc…
05-03 02:43:46	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Down	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x5d38a5…
05-02 16:28:48	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x765699…
05-01 00:46:30	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xa2e4d9…
04-30 04:16:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x810578…
04-29 14:58:08	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0xcd2830…
04-28 07:09:00	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	54	42¢	$22	0xb8eb92…
04-28 05:46:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	35	52¢	$18	0x6b4f01…
04-25 23:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0x79e6dd…
04-25 01:17:54	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	31	32¢	$10	0xf12409…
04-25 01:17:10	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x22b190…
04-23 02:07:22	Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	37	40¢	$15	0x39d17b…
04-23 02:06:54	Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xe5e0af…
04-22 05:17:12	Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x1eab64…
04-22 05:15:54	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	26	26¢	$7	0x43c298…
04-21 23:44:36	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	39	53¢	$21	0x09dbaa…
04-21 23:39:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	43¢	$10	0xc5cc63…
04-21 20:08:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0x81e5f9…
04-21 20:07:56	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23	46¢	$11	0xe44fde…
04-21 04:21:50	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xd49a17…
04-21 04:19:14	Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4c4203…
04-21 04:17:44	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x9437fa…
04-21 04:14:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x359446…
04-21 04:11:30	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0xfcb7ed…
04-21 04:08:38	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xae5af7…
04-21 04:08:10	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x8f8822…
04-21 04:06:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	16	72¢	$11	0x52341e…
04-20 23:37:32	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	35	33¢	$12	0x860da7…
04-20 23:37:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xe0cf48…
04-20 23:33:16	Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	43	15¢	$6	0x045a73…
04-20 01:34:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	SELL	14	60¢	$9	0x65df68…
04-20 01:31:50	Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0xb6609a…
04-20 01:28:34	Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	SELL	34	21¢	$7	0x927879…
04-20 01:20:04	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	25	42¢	$10	0x3c1967…
04-20 01:19:36	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe5be73…
04-20 01:12:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0x9c343a…
04-19 15:45:26	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x84e265…
04-19 15:05:00	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x26ed11…
04-19 14:12:14	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x06e98a…
04-19 14:04:40	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x01f984…
04-19 13:52:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x9e8249…
04-19 13:50:18	Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xb0ef76…
04-19 13:42:08	Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x22f540…
04-19 13:38:18	Will Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xa0dcb7…
04-19 13:35:14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x8b17cf…
04-19 13:26:20	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0xab254a…
04-19 13:25:24	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	16	42¢	$7	0x309cc3…
04-19 13:24:56	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x79dc2f…
04-19 13:20:56	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	42¢	$9	0x3e7615…
04-19 01:20:54	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xeef8ff…
04-18 08:40:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x487121…
04-18 03:22:38	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xd5c912…
04-18 03:17:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe609e2…
04-18 03:15:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xdbfe23…
04-18 03:10:34	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0xfbc8a9…
04-18 03:01:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xf36cba…
04-18 03:00:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x896d9f…
04-18 02:50:36	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x49490b…
04-17 21:25:46	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	38	61¢	$23	0x80f87d…
04-17 14:24:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0x2802e9…
04-17 14:07:28	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	16¢	$7	0x3c2200…
04-17 13:12:42	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xd87111…
04-17 07:34:42	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x624016…
04-17 07:22:46	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xe60c72…
04-17 07:20:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	13	65¢	$9	0x7579a3…
04-17 07:13:00	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	37¢	$24	0x9844d1…
04-17 06:43:24	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x908f30…
04-17 06:16:00	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xce648f…
04-17 06:06:18	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x33ceaf…
04-17 06:03:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x31d429…
04-17 01:54:08	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x7c7c46…
04-17 01:45:38	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xdfde6c…
04-16 14:22:02	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	58¢	$9	0x5baec5…
04-16 07:24:20	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x0b2e99…
04-16 07:23:36	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0xdaea92…
04-16 07:11:26	will united left bsp win at least one seat in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x590607…
04-16 06:29:28	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	13	41¢	$5	0x6d48d2…
04-16 05:14:08	will the orlando magic make the nba playoffs 794	Yes	SELL	34	40¢	$13	0xad905f…
04-15 13:50:12	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0xa56c7d…
04-15 13:49:48	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	34¢	$15	0x8f1be4…
04-15 11:03:52	Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xefe5bf…
04-15 06:35:08	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x579d91…
04-15 05:57:08	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xc1477c…
04-15 05:55:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xbf9611…
04-15 05:53:50	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xc944ad…
04-15 05:32:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0x3de08f…
04-15 03:44:02	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x435ae6…
04-15 03:42:58	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb06cb4…