Trim-Caution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$57

Unrealized P&L

-$1.56K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,999

lifetime

Volume

$191.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$3.46K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 13:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$42

Politics

43% 100% +$14

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+6,442	$5,014	54¢	$3.4K	$-1,567	07-21 13:38
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	-10	$-7	63¢	$-6	+$1	06-14 22:13
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+70	$-2	7¢	$5	+$7	07-19 09:04
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$2	12¢	$2	+$0	05-29 20:12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+50	$2	4¢	$2	$-0	07-02 02:40
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+25	$0	8¢	$2	+$2	07-12 06:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	92	$9.8K	4,902	5,012	-110	open	—	04-10 05:04
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	58	$9.8K	7,406	2,639	+4,767	open	—	05-30 12:10
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	39	$9.0K	5,979	5,266	+714	open	—	04-29 08:11
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	17	$8.0K	4,045	4,044	+1	open	—	04-15 12:07
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	124	$7.0K	5,032	2,164	+2,868	open	—	04-18 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$6.9K	3,500	3,500	+0	open	—	04-29 23:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	87	$6.7K	7,882	1,120	+6,762	open	—	07-21 13:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	34	$4.9K	2,482	2,482	+0	open	—	05-12 13:46
will fidesz kdnp win 70 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	2	$4.8K	4,814	0	+4,814	open	—	04-13 03:17
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	36	$4.3K	2,182	2,182	+0	open	—	04-30 05:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	7	$4.3K	4,300	0	+4,300	open	—	06-08 02:46
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	6	$4.2K	4,200	0	+4,200	open	—	06-04 03:25
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	74	$4.2K	2,095	2,151	-55	Yes	+$32	05-12 16:05
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	62	$4.1K	3,935	213	+3,722	open	—	04-12 15:54
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	11	$4.0K	3,986	50	+3,936	open	—	04-30 16:03
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	144	$3.9K	2,578	1,312	+1,265	open	—	03-31 13:24
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	19	$3.7K	1,622	2,156	-533	open	—	04-13 17:21
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	112	$3.7K	1,820	1,987	-167	open	—	05-16 17:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	22	$3.3K	1,795	1,495	+300	open	—	06-18 03:51
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	4	$3.1K	2,300	800	+1,500	open	—	04-16 03:50
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	49	$3.0K	2,902	148	+2,754	open	—	03-26 01:04
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	29	$3.0K	1,506	1,506	+0	Yes	+$5	05-04 13:58
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	4	$2.8K	2,820	0	+2,820	open	—	04-19 13:15
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	30	$2.5K	1,722	846	+876	open	—	04-29 08:52
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?	5	$2.3K	2,347	0	+2,347	open	—	04-14 06:52
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	46	$2.3K	1,980	386	+1,594	open	—	04-12 14:08
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	79	$2.2K	1,389	1,000	+389	open	—	04-30 06:14
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$2.2K	971	1,246	-276	open	—	06-02 07:45
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	46	$1.9K	1,293	661	+633	open	—	04-09 05:36
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	4	$1.8K	922	922	+0	Yes	+$5	05-13 00:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 13:38:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xdc7a43…
07-19 20:33:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xbfa37b…
07-19 09:04:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xc35ac2…
07-19 09:04:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x18e37d…
07-19 08:45:37	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x716133…
07-17 00:51:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xca840d…
07-16 14:18:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x619575…
07-15 14:00:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x865788…
07-14 14:07:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x600762…
07-13 15:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xa86dc6…
07-13 12:24:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xf162c8…
07-12 17:05:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	62¢	$56	0xd8f786…
07-12 17:02:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x047b14…
07-12 06:39:02	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x2dace3…
07-12 02:41:44	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x7559dd…
07-12 02:02:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x857dfd…
07-11 22:19:35	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xcb8c53…
07-11 15:00:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x5796d3…
07-10 14:12:14	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0xd4af18…
07-10 14:02:10	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$1	0x7a2d7e…
07-10 12:42:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xc60889…
07-10 05:39:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x449762…
07-09 07:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x77af01…
07-09 07:22:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xc4db9b…
07-08 20:00:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x14669a…
07-08 08:29:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	161	58¢	$93	0x149183…
07-08 08:28:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x605a77…
07-08 08:28:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x307d25…
07-08 08:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2a1e34…
07-08 08:27:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	119	58¢	$69	0x76dadb…
07-08 08:25:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdd866a…
07-08 04:14:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xd1c518…
07-08 03:41:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xff5fe9…
07-08 03:41:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$42	0xc2a0a1…
07-08 03:41:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0x94d172…
07-08 02:23:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x83f958…
07-07 17:26:20	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x5a830a…
07-07 12:25:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	61¢	$13	0x93b990…
07-07 12:18:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	61¢	$48	0x6c011f…
07-07 10:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x8c020a…
07-07 02:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x0590ba…
07-07 01:56:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	193	61¢	$118	0x55eae7…
07-06 12:49:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x2b82d8…
07-06 10:52:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xeb0db9…
07-06 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x0cf5c7…
07-06 07:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x281006…
07-06 01:59:29	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x5a1d64…
07-05 23:34:26	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x7c9481…
07-05 14:03:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf399be…
07-05 11:12:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	73¢	$219	0x681ce7…
07-05 05:53:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	74¢	$222	0x2d0531…
07-05 03:51:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x09e96c…
07-05 02:16:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0xcdd3b3…
07-05 00:26:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x4caae4…
07-04 23:13:20	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x806405…
07-04 21:41:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	79¢	$71	0x27db07…
07-04 21:40:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x11e529…
07-04 19:30:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x0ac38a…
07-04 10:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x855c6c…
07-04 04:50:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xee8a62…
07-04 03:06:34	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x592fac…
07-04 00:51:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x710982…
07-03 06:08:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x8736dc…
07-03 01:11:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	800	83¢	$664	0x3e0260…
07-02 08:00:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xd368c2…
07-02 02:40:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x1c24e4…
07-01 13:44:04	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x17b05d…
07-01 08:36:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x6509fb…
07-01 05:00:23	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0xe3a0c8…
07-01 03:14:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xfc6fba…
07-01 01:20:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x5fe987…
07-01 01:11:58	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x344018…
07-01 01:08:23	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xba835b…
06-30 19:40:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xad3ec2…
06-30 13:04:08	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x6b328d…
06-30 11:49:34	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xa7a57c…
06-30 08:33:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb48325…
06-29 12:18:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x9cdd35…
06-29 00:07:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x06bf2d…
06-28 05:37:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x01d1af…
06-28 05:36:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x15ead6…
06-28 05:29:35	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$8	0xfe1792…
06-28 04:31:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xd92685…
06-28 01:52:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x485393…
06-28 00:29:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x3a1a2c…
06-27 22:18:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xb0d33e…
06-27 21:21:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x63e506…
06-27 19:18:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1e4c8e…
06-27 12:00:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xdf8c2e…
06-27 11:18:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xd01b05…
06-27 10:47:04	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0x910d06…
06-27 10:40:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x0e26b7…
06-27 08:56:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x4f542e…
06-27 03:25:02	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xc3f952…
06-27 02:07:40	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x14396e…
06-27 02:03:32	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x0e39f6…
06-27 01:53:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x604737…
06-27 00:51:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x8272b9…
06-26 21:01:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x571d81…
06-26 15:49:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xefc5a8…