Trim-Caution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.42K

Unrealized P&L

-$4.81K

Hit rate

98.9%

Resolved

234

Trades

4,061

lifetime

Volume

$256.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$2.05K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 08:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

53% 91% +$1,083

Politics

43% 90% +$231

Tech

3% 89% +$88

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$28

Crypto

0% 83% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+8,309	$5,709	11¢	$872	-$4,837	10-13 18:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	+600	$587	100¢	$599	+$12	10-19 16:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+600	$569	94¢	$567	-$2	10-29 08:41
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	+10	$5	94¢	$9	+$4	09-01 05:03
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+56	$0	4¢	$2	+$2	10-15 18:35
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+40	-$8	5¢	$2	+$10	10-10 06:05
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+70	$4	2¢	$2	-$2	07-02 02:40
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	-$2	7¢	$1	+$3	06-16 02:00
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+15	$5	3¢	$0	-$4	06-17 13:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	87	$13.9K	9,620	4,296	+5,324	No	+$40	06-15 18:16
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	92	$9.8K	4,902	5,012	-110	Yes	+$52	04-10 05:04
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	58	$9.8K	7,406	2,639	+4,767	No	+$179	05-30 12:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	188	$9.6K	11,792	3,482	+8,309	open	—	10-13 18:42
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	39	$9.0K	5,979	5,266	+714	No	+$25	04-29 08:11
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	17	$8.0K	4,045	4,044	+1	Yes	+$39	04-15 12:07
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	107	$8.0K	4,303	3,793	+510	No	+$28	06-19 00:27
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?	77	$7.4K	3,754	3,705	+49	No	+$32	05-08 03:20
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	124	$7.0K	5,032	2,164	+2,868	Yes	+$160	04-18 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$6.9K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	+$28	04-29 23:47
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?	19	$6.7K	3,351	3,351	+0	No	+$8	05-06 09:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	34	$4.9K	2,482	2,482	+0	No	+$44	05-12 13:46
will fidesz kdnp win 70 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	2	$4.8K	4,814	0	+4,814	Yes	+$5	04-13 03:17
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	87	$4.8K	2,419	2,419	+0	Yes	+$31	07-02 12:52
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	75	$4.4K	2,095	2,352	-256	Yes	+$31	05-12 16:05
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	36	$4.3K	2,182	2,182	+0	No	+$17	04-30 05:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	7	$4.3K	4,300	0	+4,300	No	+$19	06-08 02:46
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	22	$4.2K	2,910	1,331	+1,579	Yes	+$8	05-13 13:40
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	6	$4.2K	4,200	0	+4,200	Yes	+$34	06-04 03:25
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	62	$4.1K	3,935	213	+3,722	Yes	+$90	04-12 15:54
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	11	$4.0K	3,986	50	+3,936	No	+$18	04-30 16:03
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	144	$3.9K	2,578	1,312	+1,265	Yes	+$20	03-31 13:24
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	122	$3.8K	1,896	1,987	-92	Yes	+$63	05-16 17:28
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	19	$3.7K	1,622	2,156	-533	No	+$22	04-13 17:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	22	$3.3K	1,795	1,495	+300	No	+$7	06-18 03:51
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	4	$3.1K	2,300	800	+1,500	No	+$2	04-16 03:50
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	49	$3.0K	2,902	148	+2,754	Yes	+$41	03-26 01:04
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	29	$3.0K	1,506	1,506	+0	Yes	+$5	05-04 13:58
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	52	$2.9K	2,607	310	+2,297	Yes	+$23	06-30 14:01
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	4	$2.8K	2,820	0	+2,820	Yes	+$9	04-19 13:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:41:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x56af97…
10-28 05:53:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	92	96¢	$88	0x91d4ea…
10-28 05:47:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x7fff67…
10-22 12:44:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x695d34…
10-22 12:44:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	43	92¢	$39	0xce8777…
10-22 12:44:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	57	92¢	$52	0x4db9ee…
10-19 16:38:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$489	0x1d77fd…
10-19 16:37:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x9d42a1…
10-19 13:17:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x42522f…
10-19 10:46:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	90	89¢	$80	0xac3462…
10-19 10:20:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xbaa2d7…
10-16 06:50:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x5069ea…
10-16 03:52:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x2f5ad4…
10-15 18:35:47	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x2d5ba2…
10-15 10:42:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0xfc2f8a…
10-13 18:42:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x45af4c…
10-10 06:05:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xb6277d…
10-09 18:29:17	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xd63e2e…
10-09 11:37:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xc82550…
10-08 11:47:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xafd5df…
10-08 10:19:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xd931c7…
10-08 09:38:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x05e283…
10-08 09:38:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xc9c329…
10-05 10:53:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x281578…
10-04 19:36:29	Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb81148…
10-04 12:06:40	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x94fbeb…
10-04 11:28:40	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x6e999e…
09-29 06:16:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x5a9495…
09-28 13:11:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x03e68b…
09-25 16:27:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xed05d8…
09-25 16:27:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x34e616…
09-23 14:12:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xc82a39…
09-23 07:10:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x0516bd…
09-22 19:35:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x1d8609…
09-18 02:03:03	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x31df6b…
09-17 16:48:22	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0xceecb3…
09-17 16:11:48	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x16f651…
09-17 15:47:27	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc50f7a…
09-17 15:09:13	Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x1f1012…
09-10 05:58:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xc71cb3…
09-09 04:28:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xfa12c3…
09-06 22:50:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x866c91…
09-01 16:14:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x9cfe0a…
09-01 06:05:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x3d7e4a…
09-01 05:03:15	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x0d9c7c…
08-27 07:29:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x3c7e16…
08-26 13:19:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x6d829b…
08-25 19:59:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x5905a8…
08-25 19:55:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x6b3e42…
08-20 12:45:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x9b273e…
08-17 18:44:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xe40711…
08-17 18:44:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x008300…
08-15 05:16:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xafb58b…
08-14 19:38:52	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5ddc5c…
08-12 11:37:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x36f509…
08-11 14:23:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xe700c7…
08-11 13:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0xc118c0…
08-11 13:19:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xfdc3a0…
08-11 13:19:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0x97e455…
08-11 13:19:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0xfb1ce3…
08-11 13:19:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x6fad85…
08-11 13:19:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xb7b53c…
08-11 13:06:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0x54938b…
08-11 13:04:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xefb95b…
08-11 11:17:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x2fd87e…
08-10 15:12:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xc1b324…
08-09 20:35:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x798397…
08-09 17:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xa5388f…
08-08 22:20:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x7ea3ab…
08-08 22:20:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x7ba14c…
08-08 22:20:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x877505…
08-08 22:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x16ec63…
08-08 16:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x6c0ff4…
08-07 19:18:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xf05aa8…
08-07 08:31:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xfff94c…
08-07 03:06:49	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xf48961…
08-07 02:30:01	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xd5e448…
08-07 02:10:27	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x4a113c…
08-07 02:10:27	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x35aef0…
08-07 02:09:24	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x3b8e88…
08-06 23:33:54	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0xee6f36…
08-06 23:33:47	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x5ae555…
08-06 23:33:45	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x50c7df…
08-06 23:33:42	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xabd121…
08-06 23:33:41	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x175ee1…
08-06 23:33:38	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x9585d9…
08-06 23:33:38	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	0¢	$0	0x5ff10b…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xe494f4…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xceefdc…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xbbe757…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x912dd2…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$1	0x828c17…
08-06 23:33:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x0a09f9…
08-06 23:27:15	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb2d8fa…
08-06 23:25:35	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6bf8b3…
08-06 23:13:08	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3089fd…
08-06 22:38:54	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd9e4ec…
08-06 21:04:36	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	323	0¢	$0	0xb2f6fb…
08-06 20:20:59	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xc1f02a…
08-06 19:53:17	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x778a2a…