Trim-Caution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$57

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,058

lifetime

Volume

$193.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 15:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$42

Politics

43% 100% +$14

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	92	$9.8K	4,902	5,012	-110	open	—	04-10 05:04
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	58	$9.8K	7,406	2,639	+4,767	open	—	05-30 12:10
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	39	$9.0K	5,979	5,266	+714	open	—	04-29 08:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	143	$8.6K	9,882	2,620	+7,262	open	—	08-10 15:12
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	17	$8.0K	4,045	4,044	+1	open	—	04-15 12:07
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	124	$7.0K	5,032	2,164	+2,868	open	—	04-18 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$6.9K	3,500	3,500	+0	open	—	04-29 23:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	34	$4.9K	2,482	2,482	+0	open	—	05-12 13:46
will fidesz kdnp win 70 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	2	$4.8K	4,814	0	+4,814	open	—	04-13 03:17
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	36	$4.3K	2,182	2,182	+0	open	—	04-30 05:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	7	$4.3K	4,300	0	+4,300	open	—	06-08 02:46
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	6	$4.2K	4,200	0	+4,200	open	—	06-04 03:25
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	74	$4.2K	2,095	2,151	-55	Yes	+$32	05-12 16:05
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	62	$4.1K	3,935	213	+3,722	open	—	04-12 15:54
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	11	$4.0K	3,986	50	+3,936	open	—	04-30 16:03
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	144	$3.9K	2,578	1,312	+1,265	open	—	03-31 13:24
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	19	$3.7K	1,622	2,156	-533	open	—	04-13 17:21
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	112	$3.7K	1,820	1,987	-167	open	—	05-16 17:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	22	$3.3K	1,795	1,495	+300	open	—	06-18 03:51
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt0 and 4pt5	4	$3.1K	2,300	800	+1,500	open	—	04-16 03:50
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	49	$3.0K	2,902	148	+2,754	open	—	03-26 01:04
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	29	$3.0K	1,506	1,506	+0	Yes	+$5	05-04 13:58
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	4	$2.8K	2,820	0	+2,820	open	—	04-19 13:15
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	30	$2.5K	1,722	846	+876	open	—	04-29 08:52
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?	5	$2.3K	2,347	0	+2,347	open	—	04-14 06:52
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	46	$2.3K	1,980	386	+1,594	open	—	04-12 14:08
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	79	$2.2K	1,389	1,000	+389	open	—	04-30 06:14
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$2.2K	971	1,246	-276	open	—	06-02 07:45
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	46	$1.9K	1,293	661	+633	open	—	04-09 05:36
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	4	$1.8K	922	922	+0	Yes	+$5	05-13 00:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 15:12:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xc1b324…
08-09 20:35:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x798397…
08-09 17:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xa5388f…
08-08 22:20:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x7ea3ab…
08-08 22:20:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x7ba14c…
08-08 22:20:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x877505…
08-08 22:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x16ec63…
08-08 16:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x6c0ff4…
08-07 19:18:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xf05aa8…
08-07 08:31:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xfff94c…
08-06 18:49:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xc125a6…
08-06 12:15:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x1eed21…
08-05 08:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	63	61¢	$38	0xac2d0d…
08-05 08:47:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	61¢	$8	0x542444…
08-05 08:47:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x075856…
08-05 08:47:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xfab72e…
08-04 15:37:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xf632db…
08-04 13:47:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x8b3e28…
08-04 01:20:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0xe76818…
08-03 06:16:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	79	56¢	$44	0xef9a6f…
08-03 04:00:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xedbb53…
08-02 02:40:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	56¢	$23	0x483317…
08-02 02:39:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	56¢	$12	0xb41f3f…
08-02 02:39:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$5	0xb252e4…
08-02 02:39:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	56¢	$12	0x76531d…
08-02 02:39:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$5	0x1278cb…
08-02 02:20:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x8397b2…
08-02 02:06:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xa951bb…
08-01 15:51:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x393964…
07-31 21:35:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0xd3e2d7…
07-31 21:34:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x30d172…
07-31 21:34:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0xc0cd6d…
07-31 21:34:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x05cbf2…
07-31 21:34:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x8dc4cb…
07-31 21:34:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	49¢	$14	0xde4c5f…
07-30 15:21:50	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x84afef…
07-30 14:51:08	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xf774fe…
07-30 05:22:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0x3b5221…
07-30 05:21:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x7af1fa…
07-30 05:21:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xde92e4…
07-28 22:21:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x9e4b8a…
07-27 06:43:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x8ba3f8…
07-26 15:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xeaff44…
07-26 08:35:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x11f658…
07-25 19:12:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x94f846…
07-25 11:11:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x0bc31c…
07-24 19:21:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	51¢	$29	0x36f2f6…
07-24 18:40:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xac973b…
07-24 18:06:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$21	0x49007a…
07-24 04:10:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xeda252…
07-23 21:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x17a062…
07-23 21:44:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x436ac3…
07-23 11:42:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xa3f84c…
07-22 21:26:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1f5c36…
07-22 09:07:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0x6f6cb8…
07-22 07:33:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	97	53¢	$52	0x419751…
07-21 13:38:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xdc7a43…
07-19 20:33:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xbfa37b…
07-19 09:04:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xc35ac2…
07-19 09:04:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x18e37d…
07-19 08:45:37	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x716133…
07-17 00:51:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xca840d…
07-16 14:18:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x619575…
07-15 14:00:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x865788…
07-14 14:07:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x600762…
07-13 15:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xa86dc6…
07-13 12:24:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xf162c8…
07-12 17:05:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	62¢	$56	0xd8f786…
07-12 17:02:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x047b14…
07-12 06:39:02	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x2dace3…
07-12 02:41:44	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x7559dd…
07-12 02:02:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x857dfd…
07-11 22:19:35	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xcb8c53…
07-11 15:00:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x5796d3…
07-10 14:12:14	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0xd4af18…
07-10 14:02:10	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$1	0x7a2d7e…
07-10 12:42:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xc60889…
07-10 05:39:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x449762…
07-09 07:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x77af01…
07-09 07:22:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xc4db9b…
07-08 20:00:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x14669a…
07-08 08:29:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	161	58¢	$93	0x149183…
07-08 08:28:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x605a77…
07-08 08:28:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x307d25…
07-08 08:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2a1e34…
07-08 08:27:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	119	58¢	$69	0x76dadb…
07-08 08:25:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdd866a…
07-08 04:14:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xd1c518…
07-08 03:41:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xff5fe9…
07-08 03:41:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$42	0xc2a0a1…
07-08 03:41:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0x94d172…
07-08 02:23:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x83f958…
07-07 17:26:20	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x5a830a…
07-07 12:25:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	61¢	$13	0x93b990…
07-07 12:18:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	61¢	$48	0x6c011f…
07-07 10:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x8c020a…
07-07 02:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x0590ba…
07-07 01:56:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	193	61¢	$118	0x55eae7…
07-06 12:49:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x2b82d8…
07-06 10:52:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xeb0db9…