Exemplary-Flare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

-$726

Hit rate

9.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,062

lifetime

Volume

$160.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$151

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-01

last 07-21 21:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Sports

52% — —

Other

35% 80% $-8

Politics

9% 0% $-12

Tech

4% 0% $-78

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+8	$729	34¢	$3	$-726	07-12 08:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	14	$11.3K	12,500	12,500	+0	open	—	07-09 18:25
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$10.1K	11,233	11,225	+8	open	—	07-12 08:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$8.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	07-18 00:02
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$7.8K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	06-26 12:23
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	5	$5.8K	5,500	5,500	+0	open	—	07-08 16:44
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$4.3K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	07-06 09:16
will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	4	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-08 02:21
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	12	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-05 06:45
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	11	$3.5K	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	06-25 03:42
will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	27	$3.5K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	07-02 14:55
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	4	$3.4K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	07-04 08:21
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	4	$3.0K	3,192	3,192	+0	open	—	07-08 20:30
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	2	$2.5K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	07-03 11:24
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	8	$2.4K	3,250	3,250	+0	open	—	07-03 08:25
will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-01 13:25
will switzerland reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134472	2	$2.3K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-07 07:59
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$2.0K	2,048	2,048	+0	open	—	06-26 01:17
will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	4	$1.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	9	$1.9K	1,417	1,417	+0	open	—	07-04 15:06
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.9K	1,051	1,051	+0	open	—	06-24 00:11
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-07 21:44
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.8K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	06-26 21:22
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$1.8K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	06-24 18:00
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	4	$1.8K	1,891	1,891	+0	open	—	07-09 21:49
will belgium reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149733	2	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-03 15:36
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-18 06:59
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	2	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	07-21 21:03
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	06-25 11:27
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$1.4K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-16 17:09
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.3K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	06-22 01:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 21:03:33	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1,200	62¢	$747	0x56f8ed…
07-21 20:59:18	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,200	64¢	$768	0x53d4ec…
07-18 00:02:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	89¢	$4,450	0x8abdb0…
07-17 17:57:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	89¢	$4,450	0x5b8329…
07-16 00:21:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x6db0c0…
07-16 00:17:49	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x248e58…
07-16 00:17:40	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x6bd990…
07-15 22:09:44	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x08c34e…
07-15 22:05:38	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x263934…
07-15 21:21:41	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 20260701011753591	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x0678fb…
07-15 19:32:13	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 20260701011753591	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x000df2…
07-15 17:59:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xbe9f30…
07-15 14:56:53	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	375	31¢	$117	0xbc9885…
07-15 14:47:47	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	375	33¢	$124	0x76f20b…
07-15 12:43:22	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 20260701011753592	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x8392e7…
07-15 12:38:16	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 20260701011753592	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x2ac52a…
07-15 07:31:25	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 20260701011753591	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x30bafb…
07-15 07:25:43	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 20260701011753591	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0xd26c39…
07-14 13:01:38	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x8abae5…
07-14 12:57:32	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x1c431f…
07-14 00:54:26	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	74	66¢	$49	0xd7e540…
07-13 17:26:20	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x4786f0…
07-13 16:00:05	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xd8cec6…
07-13 15:56:07	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	174	66¢	$115	0x883c2e…
07-13 15:56:07	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x508299…
07-13 15:54:04	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	300	69¢	$207	0xccc433…
07-13 15:07:26	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x837adb…
07-13 15:03:23	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x9bbfb9…
07-12 23:15:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x06aaa4…
07-12 23:11:46	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x39e66f…
07-12 15:09:13	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x427116…
07-12 13:32:07	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xf19e26…
07-12 12:20:23	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	38	64¢	$24	0xe0a2db…
07-12 12:07:16	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x602039…
07-12 10:03:13	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0xc1370d…
07-12 10:01:13	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x6fc62c…
07-12 08:20:02	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	34¢	$1,713	0x70c2f3…
07-12 08:01:07	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	SELL	49	24¢	$12	0xb7461f…
07-12 08:00:02	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x6872d1…
07-12 07:47:38	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x744560…
07-12 04:34:04	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	Yes	SELL	300	7¢	$21	0x25c166…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	43¢	$2,150	0xea92d8…
07-11 17:29:44	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	No	SELL	500	15¢	$73	0xa94e23…
07-11 17:27:43	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	No	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x5c380f…
07-11 14:42:26	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	500	79¢	$395	0x9c9d32…
07-11 14:40:23	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x961a94…
07-10 22:52:58	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	Yes	BUY	300	18¢	$54	0xfd32b7…
07-10 15:18:26	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xa34134…
07-10 09:32:31	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xf3afed…
07-10 06:30:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x3aff71…
07-10 06:25:59	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xab13a6…
07-10 02:56:35	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$2	0xed46a5…
07-10 02:54:34	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xed6a79…
07-10 01:51:50	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	43	21¢	$9	0x55b13f…
07-10 01:51:17	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	No	SELL	300	78¢	$234	0xc42684…
07-09 23:40:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	320	87¢	$278	0xdef907…
07-09 23:38:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	34	87¢	$30	0x9c7916…
07-09 23:38:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x21a4f6…
07-09 23:38:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	25	87¢	$21	0xa05d33…
07-09 23:38:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x3e94be…
07-09 23:38:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	220	87¢	$191	0x70ee5e…
07-09 23:35:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	600	90¢	$540	0xa2307c…
07-09 21:49:16	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$42	0xaece94…
07-09 21:47:11	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$36	0xf0fc0c…
07-09 20:03:29	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0x4fa2d0…
07-09 18:28:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,833	50¢	$917	0x2b290b…
07-09 18:25:11	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2,500	39¢	$968	0xb17ff2…
07-09 18:24:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,833	51¢	$935	0x328b1d…
07-09 18:23:08	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2,500	39¢	$975	0x864edc…
07-09 17:40:16	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	500	84¢	$422	0xcf4834…
07-09 17:38:14	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$421	0x6cd276…
07-09 15:41:53	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x46f106…
07-09 14:51:52	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xaf24a2…
07-09 07:56:35	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x1c8a24…
07-09 07:54:34	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x378476…
07-08 20:30:16	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	2,000	62¢	$1,242	0x727315…
07-08 20:30:16	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x609684…
07-08 20:24:44	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x56d3ee…
07-08 19:10:35	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2,000	63¢	$1,260	0x35764c…
07-08 18:11:38	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	300	35¢	$105	0x6c1674…
07-08 18:09:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0x386f61…
07-08 16:44:26	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	781	47¢	$367	0x8e411b…
07-08 16:24:14	will kylian mbappe score 8 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x8eb19b…
07-08 16:22:11	will kylian mbappe score 8 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x18ec5a…
07-08 16:16:22	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	3,919	49¢	$1,902	0xa3eace…
07-08 16:14:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xa9dfd9…
07-08 16:02:07	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	700	51¢	$357	0xcca938…
07-08 15:15:50	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0xb7a6c1…
07-08 15:11:46	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	28	33¢	$9	0x6c5f1a…
07-08 13:25:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5,500	57¢	$3,135	0x64d7ad…
07-08 06:52:37	world cup goals h2h mbappe vspt kane 20260604010452299	Mbappe	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0xf60c83…
07-08 06:50:35	world cup goals h2h mbappe vspt kane 20260604010452299	Mbappe	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x7cfc13…
07-08 03:26:59	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	No	SELL	300	77¢	$231	0xc00525…
07-08 03:17:31	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	980	65¢	$637	0xb37bfd…
07-08 03:13:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	980	68¢	$666	0x281572…
07-08 02:21:14	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	SELL	1,000	90¢	$896	0xb855af…
07-08 02:01:05	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$926	0x62987b…
07-07 23:06:59	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	SELL	1,000	93¢	$926	0xf9b8ec…
07-07 23:02:50	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$944	0xb6026e…
07-07 21:44:22	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x401e03…