Exemplary-Flare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$232

Hit rate

13.9%

Resolved

588

Trades

2,960

lifetime

Volume

$702.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$237

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 11-08 18:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Other

53% 20% -$7,139

Sports

33% 19% -$1,680

Politics

12% 12% -$2,881

Tech

1% 14% -$258

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$94

Crypto

0% 75% -$62

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	$15	98¢	$0	-$15	06-16 11:05
Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+0	$0	77¢	$0	+$0	11-03 08:58
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	Yes	+0	$205	93¢	$0	-$205	10-29 19:12
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+0	$3	82¢	$0	-$3	05-05 09:42
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	+0	$9	8¢	$0	-$9	07-16 00:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$30.2K	23,247	23,247	+0	No	+$54	07-06 00:16
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	14	$11.3K	12,500	12,500	+0	Yes	-$88	07-09 18:25
Fed rate hike in 2026?	12	$10.1K	11,233	11,233	+0	Yes	-$742	07-12 08:20
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	2	$10.0K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	10-27 15:46
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$9.7K	7,000	7,000	+0	No	-$42	07-05 21:50
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)	4	$8.9K	9,000	9,000	+0	Chiefs	-$90	09-14 19:22
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$8.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	07-18 00:02
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)	2	$8.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$0	11-05 17:16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$7.8K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	06-26 12:23
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	25	$7.4K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$59	06-20 03:51
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	3	$6.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	10-13 17:51
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?	2	$6.7K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$60	11-02 06:12
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$6.6K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	-$21	06-29 13:28
Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5	2	$6.5K	6,000	6,000	+0	Under	-$60	10-31 04:59
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	8	$6.5K	3,661	3,661	+0	No	-$22	06-21 16:05
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	2	$6.2K	6,000	6,000	+0	Bengals	-$60	11-08 12:11
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-19?	2	$6.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$0	09-19 04:52
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	2	$6.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$180	11-08 10:05
Spread: Saints (-3.5)	2	$5.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	Browns	-$60	11-08 12:59
Spread: Packers (-4.5)	2	$5.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	Falcons	-$60	09-24 15:21
nfl cin pit 2026 09 27 total 42pt5	7	$5.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	Over	+$13	09-27 15:30
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5	2	$5.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	Under	+$0	09-21 20:53
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	8	$5.8K	5,700	5,700	+0	No	+$2	06-09 00:01
Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Over	-$60	10-18 13:20
South Florida vs. Bowling Green: O/U 48.5	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Under	+$60	09-26 18:44
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Under	-$60	10-18 08:39
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	5	$5.8K	5,500	5,500	+0	Yes	-$458	07-08 16:44
Spread: Rams (-1.5)	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Broncos	+$0	09-27 21:40
Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): O/U 53.5	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Over	-$120	09-26 18:56
Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5	2	$5.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	Under	-$120	10-24 22:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 18:19:39	Spread: 49ers (-9.5)	49ers	SELL	1,000	48¢	$480	0x9edf17…
11-08 18:14:39	Spread: 49ers (-9.5)	49ers	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0x804eb8…
11-08 12:59:22	Spread: Saints (-3.5)	Browns	SELL	6,000	49¢	$2,940	0x46e575…
11-08 12:52:15	Spread: Saints (-3.5)	Browns	BUY	6,000	50¢	$3,000	0xb4d7d6…
11-08 12:11:58	Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	Falcons	SELL	6,000	51¢	$3,060	0x33a8be…
11-08 12:04:55	Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	Falcons	BUY	6,000	52¢	$3,120	0x5d0324…
11-08 10:05:10	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	SELL	6,000	49¢	$2,940	0x897f38…
11-08 09:58:04	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	6,000	52¢	$3,120	0x98a139…
11-07 19:21:52	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	234	10¢	$22	0xab39ad…
11-07 19:21:52	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x743c65…
11-07 19:21:49	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	249	9¢	$24	0xdf4ae9…
11-07 19:21:49	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	33	9¢	$3	0x66020c…
11-07 19:21:48	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	60	10¢	$6	0xa33d65…
11-07 19:21:48	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	249	9¢	$24	0x8346e3…
11-07 19:14:42	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	825	11¢	$93	0x999c08…
11-07 15:25:18	Spread: Florida (-5.5)	Florida	SELL	6,000	47¢	$2,820	0xbcf449…
11-07 15:20:07	Spread: Florida (-5.5)	Florida	BUY	6,000	48¢	$2,880	0xe62e43…
11-06 19:06:30	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3,976	19¢	$771	0x959a8c…
11-06 19:00:33	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	No	SELL	600	75¢	$450	0x0ce1ad…
11-06 18:59:24	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,693	20¢	$330	0x2ec287…
11-06 18:59:22	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	283	20¢	$55	0xfebce1…
11-06 18:59:22	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	20¢	$390	0xeedfad…
11-06 18:55:19	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	No	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0xf6bf59…
11-06 18:55:19	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x9aa0d3…
11-06 18:55:19	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	No	BUY	553	79¢	$437	0x03813b…
11-06 04:50:22	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	Karmine Corp	SELL	3,000	34¢	$1,020	0x3f97d1…
11-06 04:45:21	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	Karmine Corp	BUY	3,000	35¢	$1,050	0x5da0f7…
11-05 23:44:52	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	8¢	$11	0x8748ec…
11-05 23:39:51	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x57e610…
11-05 23:39:51	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	10¢	$9	0x493404…
11-05 23:39:51	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0x328d91…
11-05 17:16:10	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	6,000	73¢	$4,380	0x058c41…
11-05 17:11:06	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	6,000	73¢	$4,380	0x407943…
11-05 15:27:13	Will "Nuisance Bear" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	350	59¢	$206	0x6163f5…
11-05 01:58:12	Will "Nuisance Bear" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x758e00…
11-05 01:53:12	Will "Nuisance Bear" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	360	66¢	$238	0x8cc36b…
11-05 01:53:10	Will "Nuisance Bear" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	90	66¢	$59	0xf93a0a…
11-04 17:15:15	Will Amy Hunt win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	119	10¢	$12	0xece20a…
11-04 17:10:12	Will Amy Hunt win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	119	11¢	$13	0x544086…
11-04 02:56:01	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	288	21¢	$59	0xb751a0…
11-04 02:55:39	Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	342	41¢	$141	0x9ba698…
11-04 02:54:52	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Yes	SELL	347	50¢	$172	0x9ae47a…
11-04 02:01:16	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	162	23¢	$37	0xe43237…
11-04 01:56:15	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	247	35¢	$86	0xfca2c7…
11-04 01:56:15	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	196	35¢	$69	0x54950a…
11-04 01:56:15	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0x39dbfb…
11-04 00:59:46	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x4f20bf…
11-04 00:59:46	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Yes	SELL	73	66¢	$48	0x0e243d…
11-04 00:54:45	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Yes	BUY	450	81¢	$364	0x35425d…
11-04 00:25:07	Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	108	46¢	$50	0x2df72d…
11-04 00:20:04	Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	450	50¢	$225	0x4f37e9…
11-03 23:20:12	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	775	17¢	$129	0x4fc7ac…
11-03 23:19:49	Will "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x10645f…
11-03 23:17:12	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	775	18¢	$136	0xfd4ffd…
11-03 16:32:27	Will "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	72	55¢	$39	0xbab5cd…
11-03 16:32:27	Will "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	28	55¢	$16	0x9512c6…
11-03 08:58:21	Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0x4829f0…
11-03 03:14:51	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	SELL	250	14¢	$36	0x11091f…
11-02 16:38:12	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xdad223…
11-02 16:36:51	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x961fd8…
11-02 16:31:51	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	89	19¢	$17	0x179643…
11-02 16:31:49	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xa26cd8…
11-02 16:31:49	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	261	19¢	$50	0x8a1490…
11-02 06:12:48	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?	No	SELL	6,000	55¢	$3,300	0x2af361…
11-02 06:07:46	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?	No	BUY	6,000	56¢	$3,360	0xea6a3f…
11-01 18:06:13	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	59	77¢	$45	0x310973…
11-01 18:06:12	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	18	77¢	$13	0x20ab28…
11-01 18:01:10	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	76	81¢	$62	0xb9155a…
11-01 06:02:42	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x37ab38…
11-01 06:02:42	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	48	35¢	$17	0x0940f5…
11-01 05:57:42	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	53	35¢	$19	0xd3b7f9…
11-01 02:18:03	Will Justin Bieber appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	434	9¢	$39	0xddea54…
11-01 02:17:22	Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	692	66¢	$459	0x858f65…
11-01 02:16:25	Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xfea9b8…
11-01 00:18:37	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	495	27¢	$134	0x719482…
10-31 20:53:33	Will Justin Bieber appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x1eaad5…
10-31 19:58:25	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x75e177…
10-31 19:01:25	Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	58	69¢	$40	0x496827…
10-31 18:56:25	Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	750	68¢	$510	0x1bfa8a…
10-31 18:00:30	Northwestern vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5	Over	SELL	3,754	51¢	$1,914	0x44a2f0…
10-31 17:23:16	Northwestern vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5	Over	SELL	246	52¢	$128	0x8c6d4e…
10-31 17:18:10	Northwestern vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5	Over	BUY	4,000	51¢	$2,040	0x367333…
10-31 17:05:49	Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	750	30¢	$225	0xa4b7a9…
10-31 17:00:48	Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	750	32¢	$240	0x44497e…
10-31 16:55:27	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	200	27¢	$54	0x6e4a90…
10-31 16:55:22	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xcdcb0d…
10-31 16:55:22	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	27	27¢	$7	0x772ce0…
10-31 16:55:22	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x4763c3…
10-31 16:50:13	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	68	43¢	$29	0x1d19a5…
10-31 16:50:10	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	429	43¢	$184	0xe0602a…
10-31 16:50:10	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	154	43¢	$66	0xdaa240…
10-31 16:50:10	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x96f8a0…
10-31 16:37:34	Will Justin Bieber appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	51	10¢	$5	0x3f0ced…
10-31 16:32:33	Will Justin Bieber appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	283	10¢	$28	0xef29ee…
10-31 16:32:33	Will Justin Bieber appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	215	10¢	$22	0x46aac6…
10-31 16:12:22	Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xbc4834…
10-31 15:05:21	Clemson vs. Florida State: O/U 49.5	Under	SELL	3,000	47¢	$1,410	0x745551…
10-31 14:59:18	Clemson vs. Florida State: O/U 49.5	Under	BUY	3,000	48¢	$1,440	0x43ad02…
10-31 04:59:55	Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	6,000	54¢	$3,240	0xccca22…
10-31 04:44:42	Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	6,000	55¢	$3,300	0x8a98d7…