Exemplary-Flare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

-$287

Hit rate

9.8%

Resolved

Trades

854

lifetime

Volume

$91.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-01

last 07-01 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Sports

53% — —

Other

26% 80% $-8

Politics

14% 0% $-12

Tech

6% 0% $-78

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+8	$291	46¢	$4	$-287	06-14 17:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$7.8K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	06-26 12:23
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	10	$6.3K	7,500	7,500	+0	open	—	07-01 17:28
Fed rate hike in 2026?	7	$4.4K	4,400	4,392	+8	open	—	06-14 17:48
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	11	$3.5K	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	06-25 03:42
will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-01 13:25
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	2	$2.3K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-30 01:20
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$2.0K	2,048	2,048	+0	open	—	06-26 01:17
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	6	$2.0K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	07-01 05:49
will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	4	$1.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.9K	1,051	1,051	+0	open	—	06-24 00:11
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	7	$1.9K	1,017	1,017	+0	open	—	06-29 02:55
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.8K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	06-26 21:22
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$1.8K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	06-24 18:00
will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	23	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-01 17:39
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-18 06:59
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	06-25 11:27
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$1.4K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-16 17:09
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.3K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	06-22 01:05
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-26 14:32
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	16	$1.2K	915	915	+0	open	—	06-23 03:24
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	06-19 10:24
Oeiras 4: Guiomar Maristany vs Polina Kudermetova	16	$1.2K	1,704	1,704	+0	open	—	04-22 16:07
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$1.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-08 18:28
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-06 03:08
will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-27 13:44
will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	5	$1.1K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	06-30 02:28
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-22 12:01
world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	5	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-18 20:58
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$1.0K	800	800	+0	open	—	06-26 00:58
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	3	$1.0K	500	900	-400	open	—	06-17 20:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 23:49:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x77f55b…
07-01 23:47:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x091f71…
07-01 18:36:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x3236de…
07-01 18:34:49	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x80c98b…
07-01 18:10:29	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	No	SELL	160	78¢	$125	0xc78057…
07-01 18:08:28	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	No	BUY	160	79¢	$127	0x736a5e…
07-01 17:39:29	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	533	77¢	$410	0xd27724…
07-01 17:28:49	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	300	55¢	$165	0xcdaeee…
07-01 17:28:49	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	300	55¢	$165	0x307a9a…
07-01 17:28:49	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	186	55¢	$102	0x191924…
07-01 17:28:47	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	84	55¢	$46	0x4d4daa…
07-01 17:28:47	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	1,630	56¢	$915	0x3890e7…
07-01 17:26:35	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2,500	58¢	$1,450	0x6a43fc…
07-01 16:25:14	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$18	0x9494f5…
07-01 16:24:55	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0xd39309…
07-01 16:24:52	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0xa2ae2c…
07-01 16:24:47	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x9c0ddb…
07-01 16:24:31	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0xf717d4…
07-01 16:24:31	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x2b8661…
07-01 16:24:29	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x74902d…
07-01 16:24:29	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x7220cd…
07-01 16:24:28	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x2a964d…
07-01 16:24:22	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x993d93…
07-01 16:24:22	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x84cc00…
07-01 16:24:22	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x5f76a8…
07-01 16:24:22	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x04a800…
07-01 16:24:13	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x8caf26…
07-01 16:24:13	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x56913d…
07-01 16:24:13	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x2a5205…
07-01 16:24:11	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x797c0c…
07-01 16:24:11	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x05033d…
07-01 16:24:10	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0xe7cc40…
07-01 16:24:10	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x0bf52b…
07-01 16:24:08	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0xd86f39…
07-01 16:24:08	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	80	77¢	$62	0x76dce4…
07-01 16:23:02	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0xf2140d…
07-01 16:21:58	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x52bd27…
07-01 15:23:52	will egypt reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149735	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x6d75f5…
07-01 15:21:47	will egypt reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149735	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0xd8bfd8…
07-01 15:08:19	will canada reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149713	No	SELL	164	93¢	$152	0x61b947…
07-01 15:06:13	will canada reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149713	No	BUY	164	95¢	$155	0xeba64e…
07-01 14:50:35	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$901	0x4bf2d9…
07-01 14:48:32	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xb0ad34…
07-01 13:25:17	will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	No	SELL	1,500	79¢	$1,185	0x245067…
07-01 13:23:11	will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	No	BUY	1,500	78¢	$1,170	0x4a0e44…
07-01 12:39:29	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	SELL	300	93¢	$279	0x0312e0…
07-01 12:37:22	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	300	93¢	$280	0x2fa63c…
07-01 11:24:07	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	No	SELL	197	81¢	$160	0x4ebec9…
07-01 11:21:59	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	No	BUY	197	81¢	$160	0xbf9d04…
07-01 09:51:56	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0xf8e5b6…
07-01 09:49:52	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x388c3a…
07-01 05:49:59	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	No	SELL	1,000	21¢	$210	0xc1b9da…
07-01 05:47:53	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	No	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x15386b…
06-30 20:46:37	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	1,192	19¢	$230	0x6b0ef5…
06-30 20:44:34	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	1,192	19¢	$226	0xa0c53f…
06-30 18:47:35	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x075920…
06-30 16:09:11	will ashley avignone be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	Yes	SELL	300	64¢	$192	0xbee077…
06-30 16:08:26	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0x7e7575…
06-30 16:07:26	will elena rybakina advance to the final in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629194614474	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x303e58…
06-30 14:24:23	will elena rybakina advance to the final in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629194614474	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0d6203…
06-30 12:42:01	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	SELL	1,000	64¢	$640	0x440ae9…
06-30 12:39:59	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	BUY	1,000	64¢	$640	0x199dc2…
06-30 10:14:31	will ashley avignone be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x0527f5…
06-30 08:15:14	will ecuador reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134484	Yes	SELL	1,500	10¢	$150	0x381071…
06-30 08:08:40	will ecuador reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134484	Yes	BUY	1,500	10¢	$153	0x9a0005…
06-30 04:30:01	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x4191b8…
06-30 04:21:53	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x56121b…
06-30 02:59:14	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2,500	35¢	$875	0xbfdb5c…
06-30 02:57:13	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2,500	36¢	$900	0xdceb62…
06-30 02:28:53	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	Yes	SELL	1,000	31¢	$311	0xaeeaa9…
06-30 02:26:50	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	Yes	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0xc6fc6f…
06-30 01:21:29	will canada reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134471	No	SELL	335	70¢	$235	0x75ba5f…
06-30 01:20:23	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,500	75¢	$1,125	0x120fa2…
06-30 01:19:22	will canada reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134471	No	BUY	335	72¢	$241	0xc1fac2…
06-30 01:04:26	will canada reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134471	Yes	SELL	40	23¢	$9	0xdc81ae…
06-30 01:02:13	will canada reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134471	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x169ca6…
06-29 23:54:17	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x96b66c…
06-29 23:52:07	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x4a2e94…
06-29 23:44:46	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	1,500	77¢	$1,155	0x3251b5…
06-29 23:34:17	Will Rihanna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x23e03c…
06-29 23:31:58	Will Rihanna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x81f619…
06-29 22:56:08	Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x893be2…
06-29 22:53:56	Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x61d062…
06-29 15:48:14	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xbc925b…
06-29 15:46:52	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	SELL	73	94¢	$68	0x1cb692…
06-29 15:46:13	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x3251b1…
06-29 15:44:49	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	73	93¢	$68	0x81fd42…
06-29 08:17:44	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2,500	34¢	$850	0x078db9…
06-29 08:15:43	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2,500	34¢	$850	0x479186…
06-29 02:55:44	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	217	90¢	$195	0xa8fb1d…
06-29 02:53:43	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	217	90¢	$195	0x2ea620…
06-28 23:44:07	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	SELL	166	20¢	$33	0xa023c7…
06-28 23:42:07	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	BUY	166	20¢	$33	0x7fab5e…
06-28 23:24:10	will germany reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149725	No	SELL	271	81¢	$219	0xfcd61a…
06-28 23:22:04	will germany reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149725	No	BUY	271	82¢	$222	0x8a91db…
06-28 20:33:47	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x4a36b6…
06-28 20:29:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x87581f…
06-28 19:12:28	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	SELL	27	80¢	$21	0x32ace3…
06-28 19:10:23	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	BUY	27	81¢	$21	0xdbc4de…
06-28 18:01:59	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	300	37¢	$111	0x1163d6…