Exemplary-Flare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.8%

Resolved

Trades

491

lifetime

Volume

$23.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 06-09 18:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

77% 80% $-8

Tech

8% 0% $-78

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Politics

4% 0% $-12

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$2.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	06-08 02:33
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	12	$1.2K	720	720	+0	open	—	06-09 18:01
Oeiras 4: Guiomar Maristany vs Polina Kudermetova	16	$1.2K	1,704	1,704	+0	open	—	04-22 16:07
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$1.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-08 18:28
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-06 03:08
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-22 12:01
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	2	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-08 02:58
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	2	$838	600	600	+0	open	—	05-04 04:59
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	4	$594	400	400	+0	open	—	05-07 14:47
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	7	$578	754	754	+0	open	—	05-04 12:24
dota2 xtreme ts8 2026 04 22	3	$578	664	664	+0	open	—	04-22 11:29
Kash Patel out by May 31?	6	$536	400	400	+0	open	—	05-06 12:25
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	6	$534	504	504	+0	open	—	05-04 23:59
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$528	300	300	+0	open	—	05-19 04:35
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	20	$521	500	500	+0	open	—	04-23 22:47
Chirayu Rana sued?	8	$470	800	800	+0	open	—	05-15 15:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$420	400	400	+0	Yes	$-12	05-08 19:13
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt6b	2	$414	300	300	+0	open	—	06-08 02:56
Nothing Ever Happens: May	4	$356	236	236	+0	open	—	05-05 23:01
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	6	$338	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 19:12
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	18	$312	480	480	+0	open	—	04-24 06:19
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	2	$266	200	200	+0	open	—	05-03 09:11
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	11	$246	301	301	+0	No	$-69	05-06 01:30
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	8	$235	376	376	+0	open	—	05-01 14:20
Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	2	$233	146	146	+0	open	—	05-02 07:07
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry	2	$231	300	300	+0	open	—	05-05 10:23
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?	4	$206	200	200	+0	open	—	04-29 20:42
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$176	100	100	+0	open	—	04-17 15:01
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	2	$169	100	100	+0	Yes	$-9	04-29 17:55
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	3	$153	162	162	+0	open	—	05-02 13:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 18:01:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x34704b…
06-09 18:01:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	522	84¢	$438	0x7c1293…
06-09 18:01:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	60	84¢	$50	0x7c663d…
06-09 18:01:01	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x7ff159…
06-09 17:58:58	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	600	87¢	$522	0x7def36…
06-09 15:29:40	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	60	10¢	$6	0x2de4a4…
06-09 15:09:33	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xfd2a68…
06-08 18:28:58	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2,000	7¢	$140	0x96e65c…
06-08 18:26:55	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,000	9¢	$180	0x9c3a17…
06-08 02:58:30	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	Yes	SELL	600	80¢	$481	0x0a4a2e…
06-08 02:56:52	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt6b	Yes	SELL	300	61¢	$183	0xb47650…
06-08 02:33:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	39¢	$390	0x0274eb…
06-08 02:32:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	39¢	$390	0x5bcdfb…
06-08 02:32:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	39¢	$390	0xd5a280…
06-07 22:51:04	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt85b	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xfa63a7…
06-07 22:50:57	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	Yes	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x7fee84…
06-07 22:46:49	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt6b	Yes	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0x75f109…
06-07 22:40:52	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt85b	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x85241a…
06-07 22:00:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	49¢	$1,470	0xa23dd3…
06-07 16:55:06	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xf69bea…
06-07 15:15:25	hyperbeat fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0xd23b41…
06-07 07:36:03	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xd046be…
06-07 07:11:04	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x074b1a…
06-07 07:07:22	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xbad346…
06-07 06:32:30	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x1c776b…
06-07 06:27:15	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x270b21…
06-07 06:23:57	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xaf31a7…
06-07 04:44:49	hyperbeat fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xdca55b…
06-06 03:08:54	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	600	93¢	$558	0x1882a6…
06-05 03:09:22	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 1pt9b	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x078e91…
06-04 21:25:03	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	600	93¢	$557	0x4fe236…
06-04 18:19:15	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 1pt9b	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xb375d1…
06-04 16:33:24	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	300	17¢	$52	0xcb0f55…
06-04 16:31:19	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0xe2b4d4…
06-04 08:25:51	will romelu lukaku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	60	23¢	$14	0xec71b2…
06-04 07:20:43	will romelu lukaku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0x2cf759…
06-04 03:56:25	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0xdf4061…
06-04 01:53:03	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x81583b…
06-01 16:09:41	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0x44e51e…
06-01 16:07:39	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x653246…
06-01 03:51:02	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	SELL	40	73¢	$29	0x82aa1f…
06-01 03:49:00	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xb307b8…
06-01 00:46:56	City Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x195cb7…
05-31 22:30:14	City Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x9f03e0…
05-31 11:33:12	Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xbf27ac…
05-30 22:15:29	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x472783…
05-30 22:13:16	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x843658…
05-29 16:33:37	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0x7cf60e…
05-29 16:31:34	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xe3d898…
05-28 14:10:35	Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x0e5da8…
05-28 14:10:20	Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb8bf4a…
05-28 13:59:57	Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0x41fa35…
05-28 13:57:56	Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0xaf1d1f…
05-28 06:29:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0xfe332f…
05-28 06:22:35	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x7920f4…
05-28 06:20:34	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xfb7d42…
05-28 01:43:10	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x0fd8da…
05-28 01:38:04	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	80¢	$38	0xea644b…
05-28 01:38:04	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0xba8e73…
05-28 01:37:13	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?	No	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0xe96fdc…
05-28 01:35:52	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x5b184c…
05-28 01:35:16	Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x24b3b1…
05-27 22:42:39	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	422	82¢	$346	0x145698…
05-27 22:42:30	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	78	82¢	$64	0x88a8fe…
05-27 22:40:30	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x6cfac7…
05-23 03:42:32	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x3da0aa…
05-23 03:29:51	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x165870…
05-23 02:47:07	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x1edb66…
05-23 01:10:40	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xbd189b…
05-22 19:30:58	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x8b552e…
05-19 04:35:21	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	300	85¢	$255	0x06f1b8…
05-18 19:19:01	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0xd91cf0…
05-15 15:33:26	Chirayu Rana sued?	Yes	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0xe08773…
05-15 15:31:23	Chirayu Rana sued?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x6c8e24…
05-13 10:12:49	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x41ee48…
05-13 10:12:28	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf35528…
05-08 19:13:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x4974ff…
05-08 19:11:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xb0950b…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x165286…
05-08 18:01:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x7ab262…
05-07 14:47:57	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0x685e8c…
05-07 12:06:05	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x94f015…
05-07 07:28:28	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x55ff9d…
05-07 07:28:21	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x40a1cc…
05-06 21:33:12	Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x9364c4…
05-06 21:32:57	Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x824670…
05-06 15:37:57	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	22	66¢	$15	0xbdca37…
05-06 15:37:45	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	22	66¢	$15	0xc62153…
05-06 13:44:04	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0x946e81…
05-06 13:00:10	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xdc265c…
05-06 12:25:04	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x3088ce…
05-06 12:24:40	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x60d5e9…
05-06 11:47:40	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	SELL	37	71¢	$27	0xce8487…
05-06 11:47:28	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	37	71¢	$27	0xc7de25…
05-06 01:30:12	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0xe648e0…
05-06 01:30:00	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x19346d…
05-06 01:26:06	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	142	25¢	$35	0x91c46f…
05-05 23:01:36	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	77	72¢	$56	0x35a13f…
05-05 23:01:12	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	77	75¢	$58	0xddd3bd…
05-05 22:57:02	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	158	76¢	$120	0x067419…