Austere-Bookcase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.43K

Unrealized P&L

-$34

Hit rate

52.8%

Resolved

8,107

Trades

28,280

lifetime

Volume

$702.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-24 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 221 days

Categories

Other

65% 62% -$2,929

Politics

16% 24% -$1,767

Crypto

11% 75% -$1,639

Sports

7% 29% -$2,915

Tech

1% 18% -$140

Pop-Culture

0% 22% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 340 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+0	$34	12¢	$0	-$34	05-12 17:55
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	+1	$0	5¢	$0	$0	05-06 18:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	$0	82¢	$0	+$0	05-18 06:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	103	$7.3K	10,300	6,200	+4,100	No	-$220	06-03 16:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	63	$6.8K	4,407	4,407	+0	No	-$88	05-31 23:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	43	$6.5K	3,648	3,648	+0	No	-$18	05-11 20:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	41	$5.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$18	05-18 22:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	31	$5.0K	5,093	5,093	+0	No	-$28	05-18 10:31
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	11	$4.9K	3,079	3,066	+13	Yes	-$97	05-19 16:38
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	19	$4.8K	3,210	3,210	+0	No	-$69	05-15 18:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	47	$4.7K	3,300	3,300	+0	Yes	-$10	05-10 23:39
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	13	$4.6K	2,500	2,453	+47	No	-$137	05-18 12:51
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	32	$4.3K	2,877	2,877	+0	No	-$19	05-12 03:30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	27	$4.0K	3,800	3,800	+0	No	-$14	05-19 15:24
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$3.9K	3,050	3,050	+0	No	-$49	05-18 12:03
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	20	$3.8K	3,073	3,073	+0	No	-$6	05-19 01:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	18	$3.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$39	05-18 11:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	34	$3.5K	2,801	2,801	+0	Yes	+$6	05-10 19:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	17	$3.2K	2,600	2,600	+0	No	-$40	05-14 08:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$3.2K	1,671	1,671	+0	No	-$4	05-18 02:43
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	12	$3.2K	1,630	1,630	+0	No	-$3	04-28 14:43
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?	2	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$0	05-17 22:44
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	16	$2.9K	1,742	1,742	+0	open	—	08-01 18:47
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 14:31
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	3	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$4	05-19 15:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	19	$2.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	05-18 19:28
76ers vs. Celtics	2	$2.9K	1,800	1,800	+0	76ers	-$18	04-28 22:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	12	$2.8K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	-$20	05-10 19:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	10	$2.8K	1,900	1,900	+0	No	-$16	05-12 17:28
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$15	05-16 18:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	17	$2.8K	1,908	1,908	+0	No	-$10	05-31 23:33
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	17	$2.7K	2,940	2,920	+20	Yes	-$21	05-14 07:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$2.7K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	05-12 17:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 15:13:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 24?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x049767…
10-24 14:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 24?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x7af33e…
10-24 11:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe371e8…
10-24 11:54:47	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 24?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8b8ad2…
10-24 11:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 24?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x4bfb17…
10-24 09:01:59	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 24?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xf560ae…
10-24 09:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x38e5dc…
10-24 09:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2dcd4f…
10-24 08:03:14	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0xf7d8d3…
10-24 08:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xe4461c…
10-24 08:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xf65b3e…
10-24 07:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x930b69…
10-24 07:51:08	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x1458f0…
10-24 07:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 24?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4bf278…
10-24 05:00:44	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	32	61¢	$20	0x0afb8c…
10-24 05:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xb5851b…
10-24 05:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x11dd86…
10-24 05:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xe3d82e…
10-24 05:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x46ab04…
10-24 05:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0e95f9…
10-20 22:28:53	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on October 20?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x104467…
10-20 22:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 20?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf9a76c…
10-20 22:15:05	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 20?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa44b81…
10-20 22:07:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on October 20?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xeddb22…
10-20 20:54:12	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 20?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x9fb027…
10-20 20:14:23	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 20?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x094a3e…
10-20 18:13:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on October 20?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x67c105…
10-20 17:30:35	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x531a36…
10-20 17:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x415870…
10-20 17:30:20	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2dcc60…
10-20 17:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x08e346…
10-18 11:45:41	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on October 18?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xaac164…
10-18 08:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0xebabb5…
10-18 08:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0xe75e16…
10-18 08:19:35	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 18?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7e29cc…
10-18 07:24:50	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 18?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x6284f3…
10-18 06:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 17?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x62b3c6…
10-18 06:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xf4a9fc…
10-18 05:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x8913cd…
10-18 05:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 18?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x83867c…
10-18 00:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x6de163…
10-18 00:33:33	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 18?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xfbd705…
10-18 00:30:08	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xac81f4…
10-18 00:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x1db7eb…
10-18 00:07:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 17?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x1a745a…
10-17 23:14:20	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 92-93°F on October 17?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x79b878…
10-17 21:54:11	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 17?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xb8e5bb…
10-17 21:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 17?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x6abf7b…
10-17 21:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x7b6699…
10-17 21:43:11	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 17?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc06637…
10-17 21:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 92-93°F on October 17?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xa8ed9b…
10-17 21:14:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 92-93°F on October 17?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xcec60d…
10-17 21:14:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 17?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xb9d940…
10-17 21:14:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 17?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0x1c1724…
10-17 20:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 17?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x41162e…
10-17 20:55:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xe3993b…
10-17 20:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 17?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x09ccce…
10-17 20:39:39	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xaceb51…
10-17 20:39:39	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x92f0de…
10-17 20:33:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x293ad6…
10-17 19:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf28151…
10-17 19:47:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x20c783…
10-17 19:47:29	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3bc4b4…
10-17 19:23:17	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x9efbe2…
10-17 18:56:09	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x6658db…
10-17 18:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xfd9234…
10-17 18:00:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on October 17?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x039ca8…
10-17 17:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on October 17?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x6c3020…
10-17 11:27:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 17?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xce3c83…
10-17 10:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on October 17?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x26aff1…
10-17 10:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on October 17?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x18cd16…
10-17 09:58:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 17?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x84bb6e…
10-17 09:36:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 17?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x818a7b…
10-17 09:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 17?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x32ed8f…
10-17 04:55:50	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 17?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x960545…
10-17 00:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0x8dd6ca…
10-17 00:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 17?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xcef4f2…
10-17 00:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xb18704…
10-16 23:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa1ec55…
10-16 22:58:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xe48e1f…
10-16 22:52:54	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf2a09c…
10-16 22:35:59	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xd89ba6…
10-16 22:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x5dc029…
10-16 21:58:33	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x8076e0…
10-16 21:58:18	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf16e0f…
10-16 21:52:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0x2d2648…
10-16 21:52:26	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x9322e7…
10-16 21:52:26	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x06fd86…
10-16 21:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x272289…
10-16 21:37:24	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x3f5481…
10-16 20:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xc1ac67…
10-16 20:53:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xd35e08…
10-16 20:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xd08c44…
10-16 20:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0x9c1169…
10-16 20:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$17	0x28b269…
10-16 20:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x00dce4…
10-16 20:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xbf0132…
10-16 20:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x90fc28…
10-16 19:33:13	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xb1b12d…
10-16 19:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x642451…