Rash-Progression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$156

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

30.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$13.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 09-24 07:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

66% 31% -$156

Politics

34% 25% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	09-24 07:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	2	$855	470	470	+0	open	—	06-12 06:39
will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	4	$855	465	465	+0	Yes	-$1	08-11 01:11
total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	3	$837	455	455	+0	No	$0	08-10 06:28
will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	2	$837	465	465	+0	open	—	08-11 06:59
will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	2	$836	440	440	+0	No	+$0	08-11 02:06
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	2	$822	430	430	+0	open	—	07-13 07:49
will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	2	$813	425	425	+0	No	+$1	07-13 06:30
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	2	$756	398	398	+0	No	+$0	06-25 06:42
will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	3	$754	410	410	+0	No	+$0	06-24 03:26
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	2	$754	392	392	+0	No	+$0	06-24 06:52
will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	5	$753	415	415	+0	No	-$6	06-25 08:37
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	3	$742	410	410	+0	open	—	06-26 02:38
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	2	$738	388	388	+0	open	—	06-26 05:54
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	2	$736	400	400	+0	open	—	08-29 02:55
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	2	$722	380	380	+0	No	+$0	08-29 02:17
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	2	$461	500	0	+500	Under	+$39	06-12 06:50
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)	1	$396	405	0	+405	FC Bayern München	+$9	04-25 06:46
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	7	$177	1,040	1,040	+0	open	—	05-22 07:23
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	4	$147	920	920	+0	open	—	07-09 07:41
israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	4	$110	919	919	+0	No	+$0	07-09 08:35
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	4	$98	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-21 06:33
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	4	$95	950	950	+0	No	+$0	05-23 05:15
Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-1.5)	2	$92	1,025	0	+1,025	US Yacoub El Mansour	-$92	05-23 05:22
Spread: FC København (-2.5)	2	$82	1,030	0	+1,030	Brøndby IF	-$82	05-21 06:36
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5)	2	$52	875	0	+875	IR Tanger	-$52	05-22 07:27
cs2 gz1 mf 2026 03 23	2	$42	70	0	+70	Ground Zero	+$28	03-23 07:00
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	09-24 07:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 07:40:47	Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xaa85a7…
08-29 02:55:33	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0xb7564e…
08-29 02:23:28	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xfcf900…
08-29 02:17:43	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	380	95¢	$361	0xd32b8c…
08-29 01:39:01	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	380	95¢	$361	0xc9bec4…
08-11 06:59:15	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	SELL	465	90¢	$418	0xb96176…
08-11 02:35:03	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	BUY	465	90¢	$418	0x101940…
08-11 02:06:58	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	No	SELL	440	95¢	$418	0xa41b79…
08-11 01:28:42	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	No	BUY	440	95¢	$418	0xc1a432…
08-11 01:11:06	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x13fbdc…
08-10 08:14:51	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xbd0567…
08-10 07:40:33	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	SELL	415	92¢	$382	0xf3a0c3…
08-10 07:00:13	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0x8c0787…
08-10 06:28:48	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x7701bd…
08-10 06:25:31	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	445	92¢	$409	0x04e349…
08-10 05:24:31	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0x66a0f2…
07-13 07:49:56	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	430	96¢	$411	0xe08165…
07-13 07:04:46	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	430	96¢	$411	0x4b2e88…
07-13 06:30:40	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	No	SELL	425	96¢	$407	0xf1fb0b…
07-13 05:39:04	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	No	BUY	425	96¢	$406	0x0ffd88…
07-09 08:35:58	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xe3f450…
07-09 08:35:40	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	Yes	SELL	906	6¢	$54	0x371603…
07-09 07:55:14	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	Yes	BUY	476	6¢	$29	0xf0d757…
07-09 07:54:58	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	Yes	BUY	443	6¢	$27	0x1468e4…
07-09 07:41:02	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	465	8¢	$37	0x054f62…
07-09 07:40:52	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	455	8¢	$36	0x0e3447…
07-09 06:48:22	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	455	8¢	$36	0xab57c7…
07-09 06:47:41	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	465	8¢	$37	0xb0bc63…
06-26 05:54:25	Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	388	95¢	$369	0x854ce6…
06-26 04:59:59	Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	388	95¢	$369	0xfa3863…
06-26 02:38:38	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	385	90¢	$346	0xd40965…
06-26 02:38:05	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0x8f6a69…
06-26 01:41:19	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	410	91¢	$373	0xe72d26…
06-25 08:37:53	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	SELL	115	90¢	$104	0x376ee1…
06-25 08:37:28	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xc200fc…
06-25 08:37:02	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x744faa…
06-25 08:18:52	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x79eca1…
06-25 07:24:04	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	BUY	415	91¢	$379	0x322204…
06-25 06:42:10	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	398	95¢	$378	0x1a232a…
06-25 05:49:01	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	398	95¢	$378	0xda644a…
06-24 06:52:31	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	392	96¢	$377	0x52a2c9…
06-24 06:02:35	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	392	96¢	$377	0x7a78ff…
06-24 03:26:47	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	360	92¢	$331	0x9a01bb…
06-24 03:25:40	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xd14586…
06-24 02:11:07	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	410	92¢	$377	0xbda35e…
06-12 06:50:43	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Under	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xd40bf1…
06-12 06:49:58	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Under	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x4a1895…
06-12 06:39:51	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	SELL	470	91¢	$428	0x49f2d7…
06-12 05:09:40	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	BUY	470	91¢	$428	0x379b58…
05-23 05:22:45	Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-1.5)	UnionTouargaSports	BUY	580	9¢	$52	0xa1e99b…
05-23 05:21:49	Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-1.5)	UnionTouargaSports	BUY	445	9¢	$40	0x4d0a5c…
05-23 05:15:50	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	425	5¢	$21	0x7cb476…
05-23 05:15:36	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	525	5¢	$26	0xacd815…
05-23 04:19:35	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	525	5¢	$26	0x2b5ee4…
05-23 04:19:29	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	425	5¢	$21	0xf231a5…
05-22 07:27:39	Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5)	Maghreb AS de Fès	BUY	470	6¢	$28	0x384a65…
05-22 07:27:22	Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5)	Maghreb AS de Fès	BUY	405	6¢	$24	0x294d53…
05-22 07:23:24	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0x0fd08e…
05-22 07:23:19	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	8¢	$3	0xca2f05…
05-22 07:22:24	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	560	9¢	$50	0xdaedc6…
05-22 07:22:07	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	420	9¢	$38	0x2580b9…
05-22 07:21:35	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x8dac9f…
05-22 05:33:46	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	560	8¢	$45	0xc5fc42…
05-22 05:33:12	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	8¢	$34	0xd52d92…
05-21 06:36:17	Spread: FC København (-2.5)	FC København	BUY	485	8¢	$39	0xb92b81…
05-21 06:36:03	Spread: FC København (-2.5)	FC København	BUY	545	8¢	$44	0xbafdba…
05-21 06:33:08	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Yes	SELL	530	5¢	$26	0xed3149…
05-21 06:32:54	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Yes	SELL	470	5¢	$23	0x319783…
05-21 05:15:55	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Yes	BUY	470	5¢	$23	0x52ad15…
05-21 05:15:38	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Yes	BUY	530	5¢	$26	0xebf691…
04-25 06:46:10	Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	405	98¢	$396	0xec9dfd…
03-23 07:00:51	cs2 gz1 mf 2026 03 23	Ground Zero	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xc71ff6…
03-23 06:59:03	cs2 gz1 mf 2026 03 23	Ground Zero	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x6313e0…