Realized P&L (30d)
-$4
Unrealized P&L
-$8
Hit rate
55.1%
Resolved (30d)
9
Trades (30d)
13
411 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$66
$1.51K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$73
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 10-30 19:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Politics
46% 37% -$58
Other
32% 28% -$61
Crypto
13% 33% +$0
Tech
7% 38% +$8
Sports
1% 17% -$6
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +20 $10 83¢ $17 +$7 06-01 23:42
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +13 $10 86¢ $11 +$1 08-26 11:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +15 $4 62¢ $9 +$5 08-26 11:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +14 $5 58¢ $8 +$3 09-22 15:11
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -9 -$7 82¢ $-7 $0 10-30 19:10
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No -5 -$5 100¢ $-5 +$0 06-23 16:04
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +6 $2 44¢ $2 +$0 06-01 21:49
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31 Yes +28 $10 7¢ $2 -$8 06-30 18:01
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No +7 $2 22¢ $2 $0 06-29 00:11
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +15 $2 10¢ $1 -$1 10-30 19:11
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +2 $1 74¢ $1 +$0 06-07 21:57
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No +5 $2 22¢ $1 -$1 06-01 21:52
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +12 $2 9¢ $1 -$1 10-06 07:07
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? No +16 $2 6¢ $1 -$1 10-28 23:16
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +7 $2 13¢ $1 -$1 07-19 06:50
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? No +6 $2 12¢ $1 -$1 07-16 22:33
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +3 $1 14¢ $0 -$1 05-31 06:09
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Yes +11 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 06-01 21:58
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No +5 $1 7¢ $0 -$1 05-31 06:12
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +9 $2 3¢ $0 -$2 07-08 19:19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +5 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 06-22 21:04
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +4 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 06-01 21:49
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No +20 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 10-06 07:06