Dense-Wont — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

227

Trades

414

lifetime

Volume

$1.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$68

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-02 22:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Politics

46% 35% -$62

Other

32% 28% -$63

Crypto

13% 33% +$0

Tech

7% 38% +$8

Sports

1% 17% -$6

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	+20	$10	90¢	$18	+$8	06-01 23:42
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	+13	$10	89¢	$12	+$2	08-26 11:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+15	$4	56¢	$8	+$4	08-26 11:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+14	$5	56¢	$8	+$3	09-22 15:11
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-9	-$7	78¢	$-7	+$0	10-30 19:10
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+6	$2	100¢	$6	+$4	06-01 21:49
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+2	$1	99¢	$2	+$1	06-07 21:57
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	+7	$2	23¢	$2	$0	06-29 00:11
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	+28	$10	6¢	$2	-$8	06-30 18:01
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	+5	$2	21¢	$1	-$1	06-01 21:52
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	+6	$2	18¢	$1	-$1	07-16 22:33
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+7	$2	15¢	$1	-$1	07-19 06:50
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+12	$2	6¢	$1	-$1	10-06 07:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+3	$1	9¢	$0	-$1	05-31 06:09
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	+5	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	05-31 06:12
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	+11	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-01 21:58
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+9	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	07-08 19:19
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	+20	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	10-06 07:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$65	70	70	+0	Yes	+$45	02-28 21:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 19:45 UTC	10	$34	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	02-28 19:49
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 560 579	3	$34	20	20	+0	Yes	+$6	01-09 17:04
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$33	24	24	+0	No	-$1	03-03 19:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$31	20	20	+0	No	+$8	05-11 19:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$22	21	21	+0	open	—	09-17 11:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 19:50 UTC	7	$21	30	30	+0	Down	+$3	02-28 19:52
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	3	$20	15	15	+0	Yes	+$6	06-30 17:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$20	101	0	+101	No	-$20	01-14 19:30
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	2	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	10-30 19:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$20	17	17	+0	No	+$0	06-29 15:59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$20	15	15	+0	No	+$8	05-31 06:07
will matt schultz advance from the ak al primary election	2	$20	20	20	+0	No	+$16	07-18 01:43
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$19	14	14	+0	No	+$9	06-30 13:48
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$18	15	15	+0	Yes	+$8	06-30 18:07
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	4	$18	20	20	+0	No	+$6	03-04 03:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 19:25 UTC	5	$18	19	19	+0	Up	+$4	02-28 19:29
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	6	$18	1,177	0	+1,177	No	-$18	07-03 07:17
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	6	$18	37	7	+30	No	-$8	01-13 13:54
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	2	$17	12	12	+0	No	+$7	06-29 00:06
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	2	$16	14	14	+0	No	+$12	10-30 19:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$16	66	47	+19	Yes	+$2	07-29 16:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 19:05 UTC	5	$15	35	35	+0	Down	+$1	02-28 19:09
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$4	05-21 23:44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$15	36	0	+36	Yes	-$15	06-01 23:45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	03-08 19:36
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	3	$15	42	9	+33	Yes	+$2	03-03 15:57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$15	160	0	+160	Yes	-$15	03-08 11:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	2	$14	12	12	+0	No	+$4	07-02 13:52
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$14	9	9	+0	No	+$4	06-24 20:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 22:27:19	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xff1061…
11-01 09:37:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x097519…
11-01 09:37:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x81b482…
10-30 19:12:33	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0262f0…
10-30 19:11:55	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xddaaa7…
10-30 19:11:16	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xf55e60…
10-30 19:10:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xb668e2…
10-30 19:10:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0x879c52…
10-30 19:09:52	Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x24904e…
10-28 23:16:08	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xb162dd…
10-28 23:15:47	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x2646ca…
10-23 04:51:42	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xf1e793…
10-06 07:08:13	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x240172…
10-06 07:07:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xbda095…
10-06 07:06:18	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4ddea0…
10-03 09:07:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x8cad98…
10-01 19:39:15	Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x19f3b4…
10-01 09:06:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf52595…
10-01 01:41:18	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x9d5b04…
10-01 01:39:05	Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x447aa0…
09-30 11:59:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xf1ca2a…
09-22 17:30:10	Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x901b83…
09-22 17:29:16	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	9	60¢	$5	0xb4d519…
09-22 15:15:52	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc1cfc7…
09-22 15:15:22	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2a148a…
09-22 15:15:06	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x851470…
09-22 15:14:55	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x2598e5…
09-22 15:13:28	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xfdd5b7…
09-22 15:11:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xdc80f6…
09-22 15:10:57	Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0x038f16…
09-22 15:10:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x5ef825…
09-17 11:04:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	No	SELL	9	86¢	$7	0x1a138b…
09-17 11:03:31	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$10	0x3551ec…
09-17 11:03:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0xe0f29c…
08-26 11:57:19	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xc1e761…
08-26 11:56:33	Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x699a6f…
08-26 11:55:49	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x67b47d…
08-26 11:55:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x263000…
08-26 11:54:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x65d7fd…
08-26 11:52:07	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf7c513…
08-26 11:51:22	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x1d6cc3…
08-17 20:59:33	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x751d69…
07-29 16:46:32	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x3b52b4…
07-29 16:45:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x414f14…
07-28 21:46:43	Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	No	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xbb9857…
07-24 21:41:24	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x555881…
07-24 18:51:27	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5f03d0…
07-24 18:44:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0x5ea36e…
07-21 22:34:52	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x068ef7…
07-21 18:48:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	47	19¢	$9	0x216de5…
07-21 03:46:16	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd47e4e…
07-21 03:45:42	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf5568e…
07-21 03:45:25	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x445b2e…
07-21 03:44:51	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x44c9ea…
07-19 15:02:49	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x58b033…
07-19 06:50:00	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcda62c…
07-18 23:08:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x0f577d…
07-18 23:07:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xa50d93…
07-18 23:03:01	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1fa979…
07-18 01:43:58	will matt schultz advance from the ak al primary election	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x9da348…
07-16 22:37:43	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xaa3409…
07-16 22:37:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe8cb34…
07-16 22:37:05	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8e51f8…
07-16 22:36:59	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf95fa2…
07-16 22:36:29	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	No	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x7238ff…
07-16 22:35:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x332a6e…
07-16 22:34:38	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026 from july 16	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x673285…
07-16 22:33:14	Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x393e7b…
07-16 22:32:50	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xfd415d…
07-16 22:31:58	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa8fa58…
07-15 18:33:59	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xf910cd…
07-15 18:33:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0x24266f…
07-15 18:14:41	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x5bdef4…
07-09 01:07:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	No	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x9db1d4…
07-09 01:04:40	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xa4e938…
07-08 19:19:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x8e2cf4…
07-08 19:18:44	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xe14ed2…
07-08 19:16:11	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x9fec52…
07-03 09:48:16	Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x8698ea…
07-03 07:17:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	744	0¢	$3	0x0bf767…
07-02 21:59:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xa546e5…
07-02 18:59:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	129	2¢	$2	0x55089d…
07-02 13:52:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0xf7b62f…
07-02 09:48:52	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb61eb0…
07-02 09:34:05	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0x572199…
06-30 21:50:50	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc3efbe…
06-30 21:44:11	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfd2fe4…
06-30 21:43:44	Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x091b1a…
06-30 18:11:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xc454f8…
06-30 18:07:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	15	91¢	$13	0x117050…
06-30 18:01:04	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xe24307…
06-30 17:58:16	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x50da19…
06-30 14:14:40	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xd9e77f…
06-30 14:12:55	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xa6c716…
06-30 13:54:05	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	119	4¢	$5	0xa14dda…
06-30 13:51:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x21071d…
06-30 13:48:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xa7c0eb…
06-29 15:59:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0x7bff04…
06-29 00:12:07	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xb3dcb9…
06-29 00:11:05	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xeb12dc…