Murky-Chow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.7%

Resolved

Trades

4,916

lifetime

Volume

$221.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 08-11 06:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

43% — —

Politics

42% 25% $-27

Sports

9% — —

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 120 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	207	$19.4K	15,206	15,949	-742	open	—	08-09 03:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	138	$19.1K	12,446	12,063	+383	open	—	08-06 03:54
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	319	$10.2K	8,701	8,882	-181	open	—	08-11 10:35
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	179	$7.5K	4,565	4,565	+0	open	—	07-30 08:52
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	94	$6.3K	5,125	4,925	+200	open	—	08-06 03:54
Fed rate hike in 2026?	81	$6.1K	6,345	6,345	+0	open	—	07-09 00:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	91	$6.1K	4,529	4,272	+257	open	—	08-08 03:55
Iran leadership change by December 31?	67	$5.6K	3,593	3,593	+0	open	—	08-11 08:28
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	125	$5.1K	4,294	4,359	-64	open	—	08-08 17:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	45	$5.0K	3,420	3,220	+200	open	—	07-30 04:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	151	$3.6K	2,417	2,610	-193	open	—	07-05 23:03
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	36	$3.4K	2,333	2,133	+200	open	—	07-27 04:22
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	43	$3.0K	1,764	1,752	+12	open	—	07-25 03:55
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	127	$3.0K	2,279	2,168	+111	open	—	06-30 09:17
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	51	$2.9K	2,417	2,417	+0	open	—	08-10 04:45
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	61	$2.9K	2,167	2,167	+0	open	—	06-11 11:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	79	$2.8K	2,844	2,742	+103	open	—	07-27 04:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	58	$2.8K	1,966	1,966	+0	open	—	07-27 04:22
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	50	$2.7K	2,255	2,255	+0	open	—	07-27 19:19
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	34	$2.6K	1,542	1,542	+0	open	—	07-30 21:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	51	$2.6K	1,800	1,840	-40	open	—	07-28 10:26
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	32	$2.4K	2,239	2,239	+0	open	—	07-26 09:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	40	$2.4K	2,331	2,331	+0	open	—	06-12 11:19
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	38	$2.3K	1,492	1,492	+0	open	—	07-11 20:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	69	$2.0K	2,179	2,179	+0	open	—	06-11 14:15
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	46	$1.9K	1,531	1,531	+0	open	—	08-09 03:55
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	21	$1.9K	1,240	1,226	+14	open	—	08-09 04:31
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	16	$1.8K	1,882	1,882	+0	open	—	06-10 14:48
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	8	$1.7K	1,104	1,104	+0	open	—	06-24 12:45
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	22	$1.6K	1,071	1,071	+0	open	—	06-10 00:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 10:47:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	220	52¢	$114	0xd1a890…
08-11 10:47:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xc6172d…
08-11 10:47:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xbb8567…
08-11 10:47:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x79f57c…
08-11 10:35:57	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	104	81¢	$84	0x4b0b47…
08-11 09:12:27	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	Yes	BUY	117	51¢	$60	0xc3d15e…
08-11 08:28:39	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	69	81¢	$56	0x366edd…
08-11 06:38:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xd13aa7…
08-11 06:24:24	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	38	65¢	$25	0x7f3153…
08-11 05:40:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x17cea6…
08-11 04:49:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0xaa37d6…
08-11 04:45:54	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x8a25f7…
08-11 04:45:54	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x0e337b…
08-11 04:20:12	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xd5f266…
08-11 02:25:06	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x86b73d…
08-11 01:10:46	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0xcc59cc…
08-11 00:53:22	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x4eaf94…
08-11 00:44:43	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x725a61…
08-10 23:40:16	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0xb73dc3…
08-10 23:33:55	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	43	87¢	$37	0xe21675…
08-10 23:32:57	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	78	87¢	$68	0x1ab901…
08-10 22:01:09	will the serbian national assembly be dissolved by december 31 20260629164744652	Yes	BUY	75	78¢	$59	0xa6bed1…
08-10 22:01:09	will the serbian national assembly be dissolved by december 31 20260629164744652	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x07b123…
08-10 21:01:54	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	136	88¢	$120	0x57d275…
08-10 20:43:30	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	107	87¢	$93	0xb44073…
08-10 20:42:57	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x15798e…
08-10 20:42:18	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0x5522eb…
08-10 19:11:03	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	SELL	88	68¢	$60	0xd43211…
08-10 17:28:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	52¢	$57	0x98ae29…
08-10 17:25:37	will russia capture all of bilytske by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x5b7fee…
08-10 16:56:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x0c49bb…
08-10 16:37:21	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	104	82¢	$85	0x49223b…
08-10 14:52:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	121	81¢	$98	0x540581…
08-10 14:43:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd832dd…
08-10 14:22:52	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xfbd421…
08-10 14:22:52	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x5faf9f…
08-10 14:22:51	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xd3c29e…
08-10 14:22:51	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x5b67a3…
08-10 13:45:10	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x4ee987…
08-10 13:16:01	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x62fe64…
08-10 13:16:00	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	11	69¢	$8	0xfb17d6…
08-10 12:46:25	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	54¢	$17	0x438319…
08-10 12:03:33	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xa0f2ad…
08-10 11:58:04	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0x79386a…
08-10 11:47:43	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	SELL	179	67¢	$120	0x350baf…
08-10 09:15:45	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	SELL	17	68¢	$11	0xa3394f…
08-10 09:15:15	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	28	76¢	$22	0x8874b5…
08-10 09:15:15	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	SELL	78	68¢	$53	0x2c6091…
08-10 08:55:15	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x93f0b2…
08-10 08:50:48	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xeae16a…
08-10 08:23:37	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xe59e9d…
08-10 08:05:22	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	SELL	40	52¢	$21	0xb30040…
08-10 04:45:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x031f87…
08-10 04:45:46	Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x7d664b…
08-10 04:45:45	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xac6ee8…
08-10 04:45:42	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xfc3093…
08-10 04:33:51	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0xaa58cf…
08-10 02:48:33	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	SELL	48	69¢	$33	0x339144…
08-10 02:47:13	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x446911…
08-10 02:46:10	will russia capture all of bilytske by december 31	Yes	SELL	107	51¢	$55	0x4a3b67…
08-09 21:09:07	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0x697938…
08-09 20:47:58	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0xb0d38b…
08-09 20:22:16	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0x51ac45…
08-09 19:33:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	310	81¢	$251	0xb8100c…
08-09 15:27:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x070681…
08-09 15:26:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	110	80¢	$88	0xca1b6a…
08-09 14:51:45	Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf65f52…
08-09 14:04:27	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x4174eb…
08-09 13:56:55	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x78a129…
08-09 13:47:06	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	90	69¢	$62	0x6d3344…
08-09 13:22:21	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x32bee5…
08-09 12:06:49	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x24ddc2…
08-09 11:13:09	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xb71756…
08-09 10:02:34	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x5e305e…
08-09 05:29:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	216	61¢	$132	0x53e965…
08-09 04:31:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x96e3b4…
08-09 03:55:27	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	54¢	$0	0xf46629…
08-09 03:55:27	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x5b37c0…
08-09 03:55:25	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x97a680…
08-09 03:55:24	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xb0ad71…
08-09 03:55:22	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xeb28a4…
08-09 03:55:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0xb6e174…
08-09 03:04:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	303	57¢	$173	0x8c48d2…
08-09 00:51:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	236	56¢	$132	0xe3b422…
08-09 00:50:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	56¢	$38	0xa061b1…
08-09 00:06:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x9798ea…
08-08 23:06:54	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	84	84¢	$71	0xf02932…
08-08 23:01:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x77e2a6…
08-08 18:57:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	293	58¢	$170	0xe26754…
08-08 18:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	293	58¢	$170	0xc3c0b3…
08-08 17:36:52	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xc980a8…
08-08 17:21:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	149	78¢	$116	0x937f5c…
08-08 17:01:04	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x78fb2f…
08-08 16:55:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x7ff637…
08-08 16:47:58	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x32da40…
08-08 16:44:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	122	78¢	$95	0x1478af…
08-08 14:50:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	275	59¢	$162	0x988015…
08-08 14:43:39	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	57¢	$61	0xc9754c…
08-08 14:29:00	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x9a7001…
08-08 14:18:03	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x1cf8d2…