Helpless-Sandwich — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.54K

Unrealized P&L

+$403

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

294

Trades

6,512

lifetime

Volume

$569.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$7.04K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 22:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 109 days

Categories

Politics

39% 74% -$1,982

Other

35% 40% +$1,147

Crypto

19% 62% +$8,310

Sports

7% 32% -$5,932

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	+2,432	$2,000	69¢	$1.7K	-$312	10-29 10:16
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-306,347	-$2,444	0¢	$-1072	+$1,372	05-25 11:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,075	$1,000	20¢	$795	-$205	10-10 15:10
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	+1,030	$700	74¢	$762	+$62	10-28 16:23
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-200,427	-$1,203	0¢	$-701	+$501	04-28 16:18
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	No	+758	$500	82¢	$625	+$125	05-04 21:40
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	+4,083	$1,500	8¢	$339	-$1,161	10-29 10:16
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-200,981	-$1,407	0¢	$-301	+$1,105	07-03 12:35
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-10,003	-$140	3¢	$-255	-$115	09-14 19:41
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+435	$200	38¢	$165	-$35	10-28 17:11
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	+3,667	$1,000	4¢	$149	-$851	10-22 09:27
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-13,434	-$28	1¢	$-101	-$73	09-06 20:15
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-3,975	-$79	2¢	$-89	-$10	09-14 19:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	4	$20.6K	11,148	11,148	+0	No	+$590	11-03 22:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$20.0K	10,200	10,200	+0	Yes	+$3	02-27 23:42
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	3	$16.3K	8,164	8,164	+0	No	+$35	01-31 12:59
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$16.2K	8,123	8,123	+0	Yes	+$65	01-28 19:00
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	8	$12.2K	8,304	8,220	+84	No	+$3,990	04-29 23:57
will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	2	$10.3K	8,131	8,131	+0	Yes	+$312	07-06 14:23
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	980	$10.2K	628,563	829,544	-200,981	open	—	07-03 12:35
US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz	2	$10.2K	5,165	5,165	+0	Carlos Alcaraz	+$160	09-06 20:33
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$10.0K	5,029	5,029	+0	No	+$14	03-04 10:53
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	12	$10.0K	6,504	3,980	+2,525	No	+$332	03-04 16:34
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	3	$9.9K	6,098	6,065	+33	No	-$115	04-15 19:27
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	9	$8.5K	6,885	6,693	+192	No	+$3,598	04-29 23:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$8.4K	6,944	5,000	+1,944	Yes	-$1,600	04-10 09:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$8.1K	4,057	4,057	+0	No	+$53	03-30 02:20
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	765	$7.6K	423,587	423,587	+0	open	—	06-18 21:06
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	296	$7.4K	303,797	610,144	-306,347	open	—	05-25 11:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$7.2K	4,098	4,098	+0	No	+$237	03-30 11:55
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$6.4K	3,937	3,937	+0	open	—	09-05 15:31
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$6.3K	4,664	4,664	+0	Yes	+$2,733	08-24 15:24
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$6.2K	3,119	3,119	+0	No	+$36	02-14 03:41
will the us next strike iran on february 9 2026 et	5	$6.1K	3,080	3,080	+0	No	+$50	02-10 05:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$6.1K	3,158	3,158	+0	No	+$79	04-08 14:02
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	2	$6.0K	3,035	3,023	+12	No	+$12	02-11 01:36
will the us next strike iran on february 8 2026 et	6	$6.0K	3,031	3,031	+0	No	+$18	02-09 06:14
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	2	$6.0K	3,036	3,036	+0	No	+$33	02-18 01:33
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	11	$6.0K	3,009	3,009	+0	No	+$6	02-15 01:28
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$6.0K	3,008	3,003	+5	No	+$5	02-13 20:08
will the us next strike iran on february 7 2026 et	4	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$22	02-08 08:41
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$6.0K	3,191	3,191	+0	No	-$32	02-16 10:33
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	3	$5.8K	3,158	3,158	+0	open	—	10-19 19:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 22:19:00	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	11,148	95¢	$10,590	0xe2dedf…
11-03 21:18:04	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	690	58¢	$400	0xd4ebd7…
11-01 12:52:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,442	99¢	$2,419	0xa01fea…
10-29 15:34:38	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	802	31¢	$250	0x878a0b…
10-29 13:38:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	721	35¢	$250	0x4f2fc6…
10-29 13:09:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	758	66¢	$500	0xf4fd94…
10-29 13:09:01	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	2,273	66¢	$1,500	0x95a25c…
10-29 10:16:49	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	692	72¢	$500	0xf68b2a…
10-29 10:16:04	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,152	9¢	$100	0x7233e6…
10-28 17:56:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	35,892	0¢	$36	0x701a56…
10-28 17:55:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xbf096d…
10-28 17:54:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9ba7c8…
10-28 17:53:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9,000	0¢	$9	0xc9fd7d…
10-28 17:53:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe78098…
10-28 17:52:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	93,450	0¢	$93	0x462e2f…
10-28 17:52:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xb7ab0d…
10-28 17:51:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xd5442c…
10-28 17:49:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0x1b708d…
10-28 17:48:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$3	0x1f587a…
10-28 17:47:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x70dcee…
10-28 17:47:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0x712884…
10-28 17:45:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,670	0¢	$5	0x150667…
10-28 17:44:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	17,000	0¢	$17	0xed57b2…
10-28 17:43:56	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0x40501d…
10-28 17:42:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,600	0¢	$11	0x0bf8c2…
10-28 17:38:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50,000	0¢	$50	0x3c215a…
10-28 17:22:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,000	0¢	$4	0x83b99f…
10-28 17:22:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xcb6bb0…
10-28 17:11:13	Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	435	46¢	$200	0x8827d4…
10-28 17:10:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,048	95¢	$1,000	0x5216fc…
10-28 17:10:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	284,612	0¢	$285	0xacf9a9…
10-28 17:09:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,092	96¢	$2,000	0x780014…
10-28 17:08:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,122	0¢	$4	0xacba77…
10-28 16:23:56	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1,030	68¢	$700	0xdae953…
10-28 15:56:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	866	58¢	$500	0x1c0698…
10-28 15:38:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	2,047	99¢	$2,022	0xd5ba25…
10-28 15:37:58	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	2,681	91¢	$2,440	0xf017a9…
10-28 15:32:08	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0x164d9a…
10-27 16:29:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	2,047	98¢	$2,000	0xbc4d9a…
10-26 09:22:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,442	86¢	$2,100	0xa648c3…
10-26 09:19:47	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,010	99¢	$1,000	0xb2a61f…
10-26 09:16:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	860	58¢	$500	0xa1ddbf…
10-22 09:29:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	2,096	95¢	$2,000	0xb74fc4…
10-22 09:27:09	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,084	9¢	$100	0xca0f0a…
10-22 09:26:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	928	54¢	$500	0xbf5557…
10-22 09:05:00	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2,085	96¢	$2,000	0xc7ce22…
10-22 08:56:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,688	93¢	$2,500	0xbf779e…
10-22 08:50:32	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,951	4¢	$379	0x5b41d0…
10-22 08:43:53	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,127	18¢	$200	0xb3a351…
10-22 08:40:48	Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	237	42¢	$100	0x104fff…
10-22 08:40:41	Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	489	41¢	$200	0xe04ca3…
10-19 19:37:39	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1,158	77¢	$892	0xb33fb2…
10-19 15:50:27	Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	566	88¢	$500	0x289a6c…
10-16 11:34:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,449	13¢	$188	0x328209…
10-16 10:57:37	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,103	18¢	$200	0x7c0f44…
10-16 10:52:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	2,049	98¢	$2,000	0x188308…
10-16 10:50:25	Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?	No	SELL	415	97¢	$402	0x5c1e5a…
10-13 13:26:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0xa794fd…
10-13 13:26:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	2,051	98¢	$2,000	0xeb80bc…
10-11 14:24:40	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2,041	98¢	$2,000	0x6f5a13…
10-11 14:23:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	2,069	97¢	$2,000	0xc20b31…
10-11 14:08:45	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2,170	27¢	$595	0x13ce67…
10-10 15:10:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,176	21¢	$250	0xe9f54e…
10-05 11:41:01	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	4,948	26¢	$1,287	0x29c500…
10-05 11:40:52	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	2,170	46¢	$1,000	0xfbd488…
10-05 11:24:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,556	0¢	$22	0xb6cac7…
10-05 11:21:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,429	21¢	$300	0xb00b9b…
10-05 11:17:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,471	17¢	$250	0x65cd93…
10-05 11:16:17	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	1,064	93¢	$989	0x15f5c4…
10-05 11:15:34	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x01c7b5…
09-28 14:53:38	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	651	77¢	$500	0x833142…
09-23 17:30:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0x37b456…
09-23 17:29:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,449	69¢	$1,000	0xf8dbe7…
09-20 16:06:43	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	625	24¢	$150	0x9fd1c3…
09-20 15:57:46	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	652	23¢	$150	0xeada32…
09-17 13:40:10	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0x55a49b…
09-17 13:22:10	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,778	90¢	$2,500	0xa70b0c…
09-17 13:21:12	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	3,158	95¢	$3,000	0x74f07f…
09-16 15:02:39	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	877	54¢	$475	0xbb256f…
09-16 14:30:57	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	877	57¢	$500	0x941220…
09-16 14:11:07	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	SELL	911	28¢	$252	0x925030…
09-15 18:34:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,786	6¢	$108	0x665784…
09-14 19:41:43	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10,003	1¢	$140	0x1a987f…
09-14 19:41:22	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,975	2¢	$79	0x30ead1…
09-14 14:37:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,786	28¢	$500	0xfa1203…
09-14 14:35:12	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5,682	88¢	$5,000	0x31cd6e…
09-11 10:12:12	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,361	2¢	$75	0x7a7d94…
09-06 23:23:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,429	35¢	$500	0x654731…
09-06 20:34:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	811	9¢	$73	0x669708…
09-06 20:33:03	US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	SELL	5,165	100¢	$5,160	0x501e0a…
09-06 20:15:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	311	9¢	$28	0x9ceafe…
09-06 20:15:04	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13,434	0¢	$28	0xcf8911…
09-06 20:11:49	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15,243	0¢	$43	0xe3e4e2…
09-06 20:11:25	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	184	24¢	$43	0x53ecc7…
09-06 19:50:54	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,951	11¢	$1,000	0x65d413…
09-06 19:36:58	US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	5,165	97¢	$5,000	0xf9b671…
09-06 14:24:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	5,556	9¢	$500	0xb6ed66…
09-05 15:43:43	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-05?	No	BUY	625	48¢	$300	0x7c8b3c…
09-05 15:31:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	3,125	8¢	$250	0x363976…
09-05 15:31:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3,937	86¢	$3,389	0x37a1e3…