Thick-Spiral — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$142

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.5%

Resolved

194

Trades

318

lifetime

Volume

$4.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 07-01 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 33% -$294

Other

23% 41% -$198

Politics

16% 33% +$416

Sports

2% 33% -$67

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$247	243	233	+10	Yes	+$223	05-09 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	2	$222	147	147	+0	Up	+$22	05-11 15:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$110	367	0	+367	Yes	+$257	04-29 20:08
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	5	$90	529	529	+0	open	—	05-13 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$85	56	56	+0	Up	+$25	05-09 21:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	2	$74	170	0	+170	Up	-$4	05-10 07:46
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	2	$71	446	446	+0	No	+$1	05-13 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	10	$68	112	44	+69	Up	+$3	05-23 13:10
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$67	1,120	0	+1,120	No	-$67	07-01 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5PM ET	1	$66	205	0	+205	Down	+$138	05-09 21:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	3	$64	120	0	+120	Down	+$56	05-08 08:09
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 12AM ET	2	$60	112	0	+112	Up	-$60	05-10 04:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$59	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-11 15:00
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$59	125	125	+0	open	—	05-08 11:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$55	167	167	+0	No	-$5	05-09 21:08
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu	2	$44	24	24	+0	Yunchaokete Bu	+$4	05-08 11:41
Will Chiefs win?	3	$42	24	24	+0	Yes	+$5	05-08 11:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$42	81	0	+81	Up	-$42	05-10 12:53
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Guiomar Maristany	2	$40	20	20	+0	Guiomar Maristany	+$0	05-08 11:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	1	$40	235	0	+235	Up	-$40	05-08 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$40	133	0	+133	Up	-$40	05-08 05:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	1	$40	74	0	+74	Down	+$34	05-10 12:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	1	$40	93	0	+93	Down	+$53	05-08 12:21
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$40	48	0	+48	Down	+$8	05-08 14:27
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	2	$40	53	0	+53	Down	-$40	05-08 12:23
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	2	$39	29	29	+0	Down	+$19	05-11 14:50
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek	2	$38	23	23	+0	Iga Swiatek	-$2	05-08 11:41
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	2	$36	91	91	+0	open	—	05-23 13:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$30	60	0	+60	Up	-$30	05-10 12:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	1	$30	57	0	+57	Down	-$30	05-09 21:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 16:41:14	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	545	6¢	$33	0x7d83f1…
07-01 16:38:55	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	575	6¢	$35	0x195a56…
07-01 16:36:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xbb4c90…
07-01 16:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x3aee51…
07-01 16:32:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x118fcd…
05-23 17:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0xf00ade…
05-23 17:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0x24102c…
05-23 13:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x5de92d…
05-23 13:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	57	9¢	$5	0xb40f24…
05-23 13:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xefe749…
05-23 13:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9416b8…
05-23 13:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x1a3cad…
05-23 13:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x008430…
05-23 13:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x2fb1ea…
05-23 13:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xc39ba6…
05-23 13:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xc3b80b…
05-23 13:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x25e3b3…
05-23 13:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xa3a036…
05-23 13:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	37	78¢	$29	0xc45b2c…
05-23 13:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5ec346…
05-23 13:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xa9fe17…
05-23 13:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4884bd…
05-23 13:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdb5f48…
05-23 13:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x791930…
05-23 13:02:27	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	238	1¢	$2	0xfc7a41…
05-23 13:02:22	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	6¢	$3	0x57babe…
05-23 13:02:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	14¢	$5	0x655786…
05-23 13:02:13	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x342c6b…
05-23 13:02:08	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	91	18¢	$16	0xa14974…
05-17 03:23:50	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	23¢	$12	0x658983…
05-13 13:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xc60f35…
05-13 13:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xa2dfb6…
05-13 13:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x298724…
05-13 11:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x06db16…
05-13 11:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x700ec4…
05-13 11:39:11	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xdf8b06…
05-13 11:38:50	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xe2d028…
05-13 11:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xc69d8e…
05-13 11:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x2acde7…
05-13 11:35:06	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x14b6e7…
05-13 11:34:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	446	8¢	$36	0x55e823…
05-13 11:34:33	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	376	8¢	$32	0x99d05e…
05-11 15:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	70	34¢	$24	0x96b0b0…
05-11 15:13:47	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x38efdf…
05-11 15:13:25	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x61b92b…
05-11 15:13:09	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	4¢	$10	0x49201e…
05-11 15:12:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	446	8¢	$35	0x6e51c8…
05-11 15:11:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	9¢	$10	0xea7e7a…
05-11 15:11:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x9a3a5a…
05-11 15:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	147	83¢	$122	0xe4a333…
05-11 15:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xfea550…
05-11 15:02:18	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x094096…
05-11 15:02:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$13	0x6453b6…
05-11 15:01:53	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	Yes	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x0ee874…
05-11 15:01:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	33	18¢	$6	0xeb7c84…
05-11 15:01:38	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0xe4b688…
05-11 15:01:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x242917…
05-11 15:01:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	274	1¢	$2	0x9ce394…
05-11 15:01:15	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0xfbf401…
05-11 15:01:06	Bitcoin ETF Flows on May 11?	Positive	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x0b7f1c…
05-11 15:00:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	26¢	$6	0xa1a96c…
05-11 15:00:52	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	14¢	$6	0xce6bdb…
05-11 15:00:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	143	5¢	$7	0x295cf4…
05-11 15:00:40	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x626b69…
05-11 15:00:35	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	18¢	$14	0x6626a2…
05-11 15:00:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x51252f…
05-11 14:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0xc5fcf1…
05-11 14:56:00	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0xcd3e8f…
05-11 14:55:49	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0xdb3805…
05-11 14:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x981085…
05-11 14:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x507810…
05-11 14:50:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x14b483…
05-10 16:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	113	16¢	$18	0x96d389…
05-10 13:05:05	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	7¢	$19	0xf2a166…
05-10 13:04:30	Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xbd7a1d…
05-10 13:03:33	Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xbda53b…
05-10 12:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xc5aaac…
05-10 12:53:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0x2a9683…
05-10 12:52:22	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xb5d7f9…
05-10 12:52:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x78de39…
05-10 12:51:40	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 11?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xb69b5e…
05-10 12:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xb4eae5…
05-10 12:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x02133f…
05-10 12:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xe1b7a1…
05-10 12:36:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xa9d557…
05-10 12:35:29	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xbc79a6…
05-10 12:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x25b2ee…
05-10 12:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x264dfc…
05-10 08:07:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	57	50¢	$29	0x936fc4…
05-10 07:59:59	Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x5769b1…
05-10 07:59:27	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular Season	RRQ Hoshi	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x8283b5…
05-10 07:59:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xc21df8…
05-10 07:59:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	117	12¢	$14	0x5c0b52…
05-10 07:59:03	Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xc6b040…
05-10 07:58:47	Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x437c2c…
05-10 07:57:54	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x13da7c…
05-10 07:57:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0xbffc36…
05-10 07:57:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xbd92b0…
05-10 07:57:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x37d349…
05-10 07:57:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x19ed06…