Luxurious-Quarter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.82K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.11K

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

416

Trades

2,305

lifetime

Volume

$287.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$125

Open exposure

$3.12K

12 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-13 03:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Politics

73% 64% +$1,277

Other

26% 63% +$506

Tech

1% 78% +$23

Crypto

0% 56% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+1,473	$822	87¢	$1.3K	+$465	06-24 16:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+699	$600	82¢	$577	-$23	06-17 07:41
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,920	$180	16¢	$307	+$127	05-24 17:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+250	$200	94¢	$236	+$36	06-20 15:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+2,044	$2,019	12¢	$235	-$1,784	07-28 17:36
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+218	$100	66¢	$143	+$43	06-20 05:08
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+123	$100	92¢	$113	+$13	06-19 20:11
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+122	$100	82¢	$100	$0	05-25 23:57
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+60	$50	92¢	$56	+$6	06-01 17:52
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	-235	-$83	19¢	$-45	+$38	05-15 17:30
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-270	-$22	6¢	$-17	+$6	05-25 11:35
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+106	$50	8¢	$9	-$41	05-24 22:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	67	$11.9K	7,525	7,525	+0	Yes	+$374	06-14 23:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	27	$7.9K	4,619	4,619	+0	No	+$799	06-20 04:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	39	$6.6K	5,168	3,124	+2,044	open	—	07-28 17:36
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	12	$6.1K	8,639	0	+8,639	Yes	+$2,489	04-12 16:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	61	$5.9K	6,638	1,525	+5,113	No	+$1,090	05-31 16:33
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	14	$5.7K	7,370	0	+7,370	Yes	+$1,640	07-13 11:40
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	90	$5.4K	29,027	3,001	+26,026	No	-$3,628	06-28 22:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	13	$5.2K	3,131	3,131	+0	No	+$31	04-24 17:04
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	11	$4.9K	3,171	3,171	+0	No	+$767	04-24 11:25
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	30	$4.9K	4,746	4,746	+0	No	+$379	04-21 22:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	17	$4.7K	3,522	2,670	+851	No	+$350	05-13 05:11
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$4.7K	7,020	30	+6,990	Yes	+$2,356	04-12 16:18
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	13	$4.5K	9,260	9,260	+0	Yes	-$430	04-19 23:03
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	9	$4.4K	3,206	3,206	+0	Yes	+$2,014	04-10 22:41
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	62	$4.2K	70,844	2,919	+67,925	No	-$614	05-26 22:36
will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	47	$3.9K	5,899	3,750	+2,149	No	+$633	04-13 13:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	29	$3.7K	2,561	1,420	+1,140	No	+$317	06-01 07:06
will voter turnout be 7174 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	12	$3.5K	3,995	750	+3,245	No	+$1,012	04-12 12:07
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	23	$3.3K	7,300	670	+6,630	Yes	-$2,776	08-13 03:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	33	$3.2K	2,767	1,265	+1,501	No	+$493	05-26 21:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	10	$3.2K	1,910	1,910	+0	No	+$220	04-24 11:25
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	14	$3.2K	1,789	1,789	+0	No	+$323	07-05 19:21
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	30	$3.1K	2,344	2,344	+0	No	-$140	05-27 04:44
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	7	$2.9K	2,065	1,029	+1,036	No	+$140	04-21 15:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	19	$2.8K	2,844	2,535	+309	No	-$630	04-26 19:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	16	$2.7K	2,258	1,879	+379	No	-$191	04-29 21:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	19	$2.6K	2,490	2,422	+69	No	-$275	04-25 09:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	16	$2.6K	2,783	2,567	+215	No	-$537	04-26 19:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	11	$2.5K	2,813	174	+2,639	No	+$437	04-20 13:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	6	$2.4K	1,499	1,499	+0	No	+$307	04-24 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 03:25:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	588	34¢	$200	0xe9eefc…
08-13 03:25:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x27b0c0…
07-29 12:47:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xd2be6f…
07-29 10:06:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x08441e…
07-29 10:06:35	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	88	88¢	$77	0x3628c3…
07-28 20:19:26	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xdcdfc4…
07-28 20:11:56	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	No	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x966b66…
07-28 17:36:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x6b7946…
07-27 23:39:49	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x72d1ae…
07-27 23:39:45	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x69a231…
07-27 23:38:52	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	196	76¢	$150	0xc95550…
07-27 23:38:31	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	573	91¢	$520	0xafe3c3…
07-27 23:32:04	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x0b011a…
07-27 23:30:22	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xb8edfe…
07-27 23:30:07	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,500	5¢	$120	0xca9a43…
07-22 07:23:00	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xab7129…
07-21 02:19:52	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xa8a43c…
07-21 02:17:21	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	108	37¢	$40	0xffe38a…
07-21 02:17:06	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	682	44¢	$300	0xda6cef…
07-21 02:16:55	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2,273	44¢	$1,000	0xa298ab…
07-21 02:15:00	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	545	44¢	$240	0x1ee2e8…
07-20 13:27:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x7e3bd9…
07-13 11:40:50	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	149	87¢	$130	0xea63c1…
07-13 11:32:01	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	346	87¢	$300	0xe2edff…
07-06 10:53:46	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x075263…
07-06 10:53:08	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	1,214	82¢	$1,000	0xf0c4d0…
07-06 10:52:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,956	68¢	$1,332	0xeb0db9…
07-06 10:52:11	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	1,501	80¢	$1,200	0x649c98…
07-05 22:05:17	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xa82eb5…
07-05 21:50:53	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	No	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0xca7ac2…
07-05 21:48:07	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	678	74¢	$500	0x6e3de8…
07-05 19:21:49	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1,789	98¢	$1,746	0x1b308b…
07-05 19:18:37	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	370	70¢	$260	0x328a38…
07-05 19:17:47	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	1,887	69¢	$1,300	0x1666e8…
06-28 22:24:59	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	617	5¢	$30	0x993d6c…
06-28 22:24:47	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x4ba6cc…
06-28 16:03:58	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x7685d0…
06-28 14:54:47	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	879	5¢	$40	0x063e67…
06-28 08:18:53	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xa5e030…
06-28 08:15:23	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	441	91¢	$400	0x4226b7…
06-28 06:44:49	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,427	5¢	$70	0x2edb0d…
06-28 06:44:41	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x384807…
06-28 06:44:35	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	258	77¢	$200	0x8b0840…
06-24 16:56:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xeaa324…
06-24 16:23:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x4770af…
06-24 16:23:44	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xbaf3fe…
06-23 21:57:38	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x3cf0c4…
06-23 19:33:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x2ecaf1…
06-23 17:25:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xf81a3a…
06-23 16:35:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x02c634…
06-23 16:35:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0xddff7d…
06-23 16:35:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xb3cb16…
06-23 06:12:47	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x53c49d…
06-23 06:12:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xa8b6e5…
06-23 06:12:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xb11c65…
06-22 22:01:22	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,167	6¢	$70	0x85228c…
06-22 20:15:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x4c7133…
06-22 20:05:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xdbe039…
06-22 16:13:32	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,277	8¢	$100	0x903e8f…
06-22 15:39:01	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x57ad08…
06-22 15:29:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	856	12¢	$100	0x4d9ef9…
06-22 14:56:52	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	607	16¢	$100	0xfd50a5…
06-22 14:50:40	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xbb7fb6…
06-22 14:37:41	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	57	18¢	$10	0xcc3f93…
06-22 14:28:25	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	57	17¢	$10	0x0a66ef…
06-22 14:23:56	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x857e90…
06-22 13:46:56	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x40e138…
06-22 13:22:37	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	938	13¢	$120	0x86d89e…
06-22 13:15:11	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	622	18¢	$110	0xff2bab…
06-22 12:43:07	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x92e846…
06-22 12:29:53	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	203	20¢	$40	0xa55e84…
06-22 12:29:37	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	55	18¢	$10	0x3b0dd9…
06-22 12:17:17	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xc457c5…
06-22 12:16:31	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x7707cb…
06-22 12:15:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	463	11¢	$50	0x56af73…
06-22 11:48:59	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	643	16¢	$100	0x2c7230…
06-22 11:48:14	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,076	15¢	$310	0x78b275…
06-22 11:47:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,559	13¢	$200	0x62bfec…
06-22 10:58:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x3deb65…
06-22 07:15:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xc7e15c…
06-22 07:15:41	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x710444…
06-22 06:20:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0xc1a792…
06-22 06:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	333	5¢	$17	0xbe05a2…
06-22 06:16:25	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	849	4¢	$30	0x7df6ee…
06-22 06:16:02	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x10ff73…
06-22 06:15:56	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x5f88a4…
06-22 06:15:47	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xef8988…
06-22 06:15:11	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	571	7¢	$40	0xd62585…
06-22 06:14:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xa57ab8…
06-21 21:32:05	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	448	9¢	$42	0x97c303…
06-21 21:31:46	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xf57f3b…
06-21 21:16:05	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	177	96¢	$169	0x28df58…
06-21 21:15:01	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0xe1f1be…
06-21 21:14:44	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x529674…
06-21 18:14:20	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x869432…
06-21 18:10:25	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x15366c…
06-21 18:09:04	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	671	9¢	$60	0x0ff693…
06-21 18:08:22	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	597	8¢	$50	0x183adc…
06-21 18:06:58	will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0xf7745d…
06-21 18:06:52	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x5dbab9…