Ornery-Trailer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$71

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-28

last 06-06 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

70% 100% +$2

Crypto

18% — —

Other

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No		-12	$-6	50¢	$-6	$-0	06-02 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	11	$25	24	22	+2	Yes	+$1	05-02 11:50
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-04 02:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-13 02:43
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	1	$6	0	12	-12	open	—	06-02 13:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$3	7	1	+6	open	—	05-08 05:00
Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 16:13
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$2	111	111	+0	open	—	05-04 00:59
James Comey arrested by May 15?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 16:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	04-29 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 03:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-03 10:04
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-04 06:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	+$1	05-02 15:09
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$1	7	0	+7	open	—	05-02 15:01
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	1	$0	0	2	-2	open	—	06-06 17:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 17:19:37	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xeb7f59…
06-02 13:09:01	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xe27590…
05-13 02:43:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xac8ce8…
05-08 05:00:03	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa1efad…
05-04 06:48:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xa3c3b5…
05-04 02:15:56	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xeb51f3…
05-04 01:20:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbbd2a5…
05-04 00:59:04	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0x1bd7d3…
05-03 10:04:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xfa7b30…
05-03 04:00:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x5b9eee…
05-02 23:47:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x2d8709…
05-02 15:12:00	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xea8fae…
05-02 15:09:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc35d82…
05-02 15:01:54	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x41118b…
05-02 14:58:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x120686…
05-02 14:57:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8fc37e…
05-02 11:50:52	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe4a0cb…
05-02 08:57:02	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x91e51e…
05-01 16:54:18	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xff233f…
05-01 16:10:32	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5a2960…
05-01 15:35:18	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0xd8e769…
05-01 15:26:20	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xd6cd6d…
05-01 10:53:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xdbc9a0…
05-01 08:05:06	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa62da6…
05-01 03:58:34	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xb26291…
05-01 03:55:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x37d423…
05-01 03:53:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x9d64b9…
05-01 03:53:38	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x7d2d34…
04-30 09:03:28	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc4b681…
04-30 03:38:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x262717…
04-30 01:27:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x93b19e…
04-29 16:12:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x3916cf…
04-29 16:12:10	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x5515d0…
04-29 07:18:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xaf5717…
04-29 07:07:28	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xbb4e56…
04-29 02:58:04	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x48514d…
04-28 16:13:30	Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6be02b…
04-28 06:54:06	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x1268d2…
04-28 06:36:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x43a9a7…
04-28 06:34:38	Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xc5f14e…