Fancy-Kill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$527

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

443

Trades

3,252

lifetime

Volume

$207.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$983

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-15 15:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 170 days

Categories

Politics

74% 45% +$43,595

Other

26% 40% +$14,651

Sports

0% 26% -$3

Crypto

0% 33% -$10

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+1,230	$547	32¢	$400	-$147	11-04 11:31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	+200	$159	70¢	$141	-$18	11-09 11:29
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	+454	$284	23¢	$105	-$179	08-26 13:37
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	+389	-$180	18¢	$69	+$249	06-08 14:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+500	$165	14¢	$67	-$97	11-07 23:21
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+638	$83	8¢	$54	-$29	07-28 01:14
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	+1,918	-$9	2¢	$46	+$55	11-15 15:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+70	$41	56¢	$39	-$2	11-14 00:26
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+100	$26	18¢	$18	-$8	10-11 10:12
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	+190	$76	7¢	$13	-$63	07-25 02:12
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+112	$177	8¢	$10	-$168	11-12 20:32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+130	$35	6¢	$8	-$27	08-07 10:15
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	+471	$14	1¢	$4	-$10	11-08 11:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+120	$48	3¢	$4	-$44	06-24 00:20
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+80	$15	3¢	$2	-$13	11-10 16:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+110	$11	1¢	$1	-$10	05-08 00:44
FAA outage attributed to Iran?	Yes	+100	$3	1¢	$1	-$2	11-14 00:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+50	$14	1¢	$0	-$13	10-08 00:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	105	$14.0K	17,917	14,473	+3,444	Yes	+$12,320	02-28 07:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	34	$10.3K	7,868	7,368	+500	No	+$3,998	05-25 22:08
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	35	$9.6K	8,253	5,753	+2,500	Yes	+$1,928	04-07 06:33
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	50	$8.9K	5,488	5,507	-19	No	+$408	04-02 01:58
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	50	$6.6K	4,929	3,281	+1,648	Yes	+$1,603	01-26 21:45
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	17	$6.5K	6,277	6,277	+0	No	+$6,068	08-30 21:07
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	36	$5.8K	8,976	125	+8,851	No	-$5,669	03-07 20:29
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	47	$5.1K	5,480	4,480	+1,000	Yes	+$2,871	06-08 09:05
us strikes iraq by march 7	18	$5.1K	3,212	3,212	+0	Yes	+$998	03-08 07:25
us strikes iraq by february 28	133	$4.8K	19,621	13,210	+6,411	Yes	+$3,807	03-05 02:35
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	27	$4.6K	2,867	3,616	-749	Yes	+$1,818	05-07 22:10
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 9 2026 785	40	$4.6K	2,924	3,394	-470	Yes	+$1,733	01-07 15:28
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$4.4K	3,700	2,700	+1,000	Yes	+$356	04-07 07:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$3.6K	4,463	4,463	+0	No	+$1,897	05-23 11:45
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	56	$3.5K	2,444	2,474	-29	Yes	+$348	01-30 16:03
will uae strike iran by march 31	43	$3.5K	6,600	0	+6,600	No	-$3,458	03-06 17:47
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	86	$3.3K	3,167	2,193	+974	No	+$620	02-11 12:59
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	43	$3.3K	2,890	2,990	-100	Yes	+$2,536	03-01 07:27
iran closes its airspace by june 15	34	$3.0K	4,360	3,360	+1,000	Yes	+$1,956	06-08 09:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	11	$2.6K	3,067	3,067	+0	Yes	+$2,479	03-01 01:17
will israel or the us target tehran 812	38	$2.5K	6,980	3,363	+3,618	Yes	+$4,348	02-28 10:04
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	32	$2.5K	2,566	1,320	+1,246	Yes	+$422	02-16 22:24
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	18	$2.3K	1,254	1,254	+0	No	+$212	07-29 23:18
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	13	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$84	03-01 23:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	17	$1.8K	2,554	0	+2,554	Yes	-$1,801	04-10 23:40
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?	13	$1.6K	1,228	921	+307	No	+$501	05-16 07:53
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	13	$1.6K	902	902	+0	Yes	+$198	09-01 22:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	10	$1.5K	962	962	+0	No	+$375	11-03 01:30
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	7	$1.5K	1,700	0	+1,700	No	+$173	03-27 00:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$876	03-01 08:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 15:23:40	Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	2¢	$4	0x00a7d4…
11-15 05:16:11	UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Josh Hokit	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xd0812b…
11-14 00:26:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	70	59¢	$41	0xeb09fe…
11-14 00:25:19	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x16ba83…
11-12 20:32:16	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	338	11¢	$37	0x00890e…
11-10 16:03:16	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	19¢	$7	0xf72aa4…
11-10 16:03:16	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x519e7b…
11-10 15:58:21	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xe09fbe…
11-09 11:29:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xd92560…
11-08 11:54:33	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xffc9e1…
11-08 11:12:00	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	242	1¢	$2	0xd6b19a…
11-08 09:45:22	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	58	1¢	$1	0x2cc994…
11-07 23:21:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x74f870…
11-07 23:21:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x90f1d5…
11-07 23:20:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x8b975d…
11-07 02:16:34	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0xbdf8d9…
11-07 02:16:27	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xf02264…
11-07 02:15:06	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xc9c7e8…
11-07 02:12:22	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	141	3¢	$4	0x11aa4a…
11-07 01:53:12	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x9762b1…
11-07 01:24:12	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x689252…
11-07 00:26:04	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0xa3a44b…
11-07 00:20:27	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xa4e447…
11-07 00:15:27	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x5c9032…
11-07 00:12:28	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$67	0x87163a…
11-07 00:12:28	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	315	98¢	$309	0x39c1b8…
11-06 23:26:55	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	SELL	176	1¢	$1	0xda5771…
11-06 21:48:55	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0xab91ee…
11-06 21:43:58	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x755558…
11-06 21:40:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	112	0¢	$1	0xcb568b…
11-06 21:40:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xcb4127…
11-06 21:40:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x170749…
11-06 21:38:45	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x3420f8…
11-06 21:19:58	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	356	26¢	$93	0x176e64…
11-06 21:19:39	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	24	26¢	$6	0xb52926…
11-06 21:19:04	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x89fc51…
11-04 11:31:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xf16f45…
11-03 14:08:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xc97b5f…
11-03 09:52:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x91b6b1…
11-03 04:10:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$247	0xd56e1d…
11-03 02:35:48	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x76c5b1…
11-03 01:56:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xea1cf9…
11-03 01:40:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	892	99¢	$883	0x563cde…
11-03 01:39:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	434	99¢	$430	0x9f4c34…
11-03 01:30:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	815	99¢	$807	0x7a32f5…
11-03 01:30:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	147	99¢	$145	0xbe1401…
11-03 01:29:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	428	99¢	$424	0xfd7308…
11-03 01:20:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	475	47¢	$221	0xd4c195…
11-03 00:09:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x7668c6…
11-02 22:44:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0xc1e6c8…
11-02 22:06:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	95	11¢	$10	0x847524…
11-02 22:04:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x8a8da4…
11-02 21:55:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xb16151…
11-02 21:23:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	83	9¢	$8	0x3ecb46…
11-02 15:14:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	85	61¢	$52	0x3bb7c6…
11-02 15:11:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0xf1b2cc…
10-29 17:27:02	Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	896	2¢	$15	0xae2f60…
10-29 05:55:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x0b5ca7…
10-29 05:55:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf3a1a8…
10-29 05:55:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xd30e7e…
10-29 05:55:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xbdf41f…
10-29 05:50:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x6b1075…
10-29 05:50:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xd642de…
10-29 05:50:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x725e81…
10-29 05:50:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x421f08…
10-29 05:41:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x8a28f1…
10-29 05:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xdbb19b…
10-29 05:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xa1f49d…
10-29 05:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x73366c…
10-29 05:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x4dbd7b…
10-29 05:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x0553d9…
10-29 05:23:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x04d529…
10-29 05:08:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xacf33a…
10-29 05:08:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x9788d1…
10-29 05:08:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x7ca9bc…
10-29 05:06:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0xb8428b…
10-29 05:05:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0xd4a51e…
10-29 05:05:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x4bdf9a…
10-29 05:05:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	3	18¢	$1	0x39f033…
10-29 05:05:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x043994…
10-29 05:05:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x01e826…
10-29 04:26:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xac9a1a…
10-29 04:10:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x93f730…
10-29 04:10:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xc7348d…
10-29 04:10:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x5552b3…
10-29 04:00:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x03b207…
10-29 04:00:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xba539b…
10-29 04:00:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xb8cb91…
10-29 04:00:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x7e0d32…
10-29 04:00:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x0e9e5c…
10-29 03:58:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xbe4c13…
10-29 03:58:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x27f1bc…
10-29 03:58:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x15350b…
10-29 03:57:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xeaa144…
10-29 03:57:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xca61b2…
10-29 03:57:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x53730a…
10-29 03:35:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	159	18¢	$29	0xf6c4e5…
10-29 02:35:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	37	18¢	$7	0x673507…
10-29 01:57:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0xd1da28…
10-29 01:52:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x6095cd…