Stark-Planula — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$114

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$720

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$33

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-15

last 08-07 16:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

64% 39% -$90

Politics

15% 27% -$28

Crypto

11% 57% +$49

Tech

8% 20% -$56

Sports

2% 20% +$13

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-07).

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+95	$10	12¢	$12	+$2	08-07 16:23
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+104	$10	10¢	$11	+$1	08-07 16:23
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+333	$9	3¢	$9	+$0	08-07 16:25
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+9	$5	8¢	$1	-$4	05-28 18:03
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+5	$1	12¢	$1	$0	05-20 07:32
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+125	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	06-13 20:48
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+15	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	05-24 15:30
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+4	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-20 07:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?	2	$232	133	133	+0	Yes	+$32	05-15 21:02
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	3	$136	2,077	0	+2,077	No	-$136	05-27 20:16
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$38	48	33	+15	Up	+$43	05-20 08:30
Will NVIDIA say "Bubble" during their next earnings call?	2	$21	43	0	+43	No	-$21	05-19 17:13
will nvidia say eu or europe during their next earnings call	1	$15	30	0	+30	No	-$15	05-20 14:21
Will NVIDIA say "Open Source" during their next earnings call?	1	$15	24	0	+24	No	-$15	05-19 15:31
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-20 07:39
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-20 07:58
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$12	40	0	+40	No	-$12	06-14 08:27
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	1	$11	37	0	+37	Yes	+$26	05-30 12:30
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$11	35	0	+35	No	-$11	05-30 12:30
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	1	$10	26	0	+26	Yes	+$16	05-27 20:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$10	17	0	+17	Yes	-$10	05-31 14:48
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$10	95	0	+95	open	—	08-07 16:23
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$10	104	0	+104	open	—	08-07 16:23
Will Bernie say "Data Center" during Fighting Oligarchy?	1	$10	23	0	+23	No	-$10	05-25 19:47
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event?	1	$10	23	0	+23	Yes	+$13	05-19 15:33
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$10	14	0	+14	Yes	-$10	05-31 14:45
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$9	333	0	+333	open	—	08-07 16:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$6	687	0	+687	Yes	-$6	05-30 12:29
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	1	$6	9	0	+9	B8	-$6	05-20 09:24
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$5	26	0	+26	Up	-$5	05-20 08:30
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-28 18:03
Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	1	$5	14	0	+14	Yes	+$9	05-22 12:59
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	96	0	+96	No	-$5	06-13 20:47
Will Trump say "ISIS" during Coast Guard event?	1	$5	21	0	+21	No	-$5	05-20 14:19
Will Bernie say "Amazon" during Fighting Oligarchy?	1	$5	10	0	+10	No	-$5	05-25 19:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Up	+$6	05-20 07:29
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	30	0	+30	Yes	+$25	06-13 20:46
Will Bernie say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" in Maine?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	05-22 12:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 16:25:28	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$9	0xbb2842…
08-07 16:23:45	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	95	10¢	$10	0x2084e7…
08-07 16:23:42	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	104	10¢	$10	0x7eb00d…
07-05 20:15:28	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	1¢	$1	0x55e2c2…
07-05 20:15:05	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xdbc4ce…
06-20 14:20:53	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$2	0x8c0924…
06-14 14:15:12	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0xf23002…
06-14 08:27:43	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6cb855…
06-14 08:27:39	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x28e4bf…
06-13 20:48:43	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xc1c1f9…
06-13 20:47:06	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x2afbef…
06-13 20:46:57	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb60e3a…
06-13 20:46:52	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x58c6be…
06-13 20:46:48	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xe16e02…
06-13 20:46:42	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x51a86e…
05-31 14:48:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xaab551…
05-31 14:47:30	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x63a76d…
05-31 14:45:56	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x759674…
05-30 12:30:59	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	37	30¢	$11	0xa8cb87…
05-30 12:30:54	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0xacf2ce…
05-30 12:29:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xb85d57…
05-28 18:03:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x68e10c…
05-28 18:02:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x9fd560…
05-27 20:17:15	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xdc9a77…
05-27 20:16:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x61d173…
05-27 20:15:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x7b9196…
05-25 19:50:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	188	2¢	$3	0x484a15…
05-25 19:48:29	Will "Scam" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x178b86…
05-25 19:47:47	Will Bernie say "Amazon" during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x55ca49…
05-25 19:47:35	Will Bernie say "Data Center" during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x9db717…
05-24 15:30:54	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x2e28c6…
05-22 13:01:11	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd460af…
05-22 13:00:57	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x50f455…
05-22 12:59:55	Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xa6d674…
05-22 12:59:45	Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x6b4209…
05-22 12:59:24	Will Bernie say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xeaf69e…
05-22 12:59:13	Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x5d77f9…
05-20 16:42:05	Will Trump say "Afghanistan" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xa22539…
05-20 14:21:33	will nvidia say eu or europe during their next earnings call	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x3debde…
05-20 14:19:22	Will Trump say "Best military" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xe7d417…
05-20 14:19:15	Will Trump say "Texas" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xad71c1…
05-20 14:19:01	Will Trump say "ISIS" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x530ba4…
05-20 09:24:09	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	TheMongolz	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x7522fc…
05-20 08:30:32	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x62d565…
05-20 08:30:01	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x57c010…
05-20 08:29:55	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xa4b8b0…
05-20 08:11:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x4b1e65…
05-20 08:05:50	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc87b4f…
05-20 07:58:57	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x129535…
05-20 07:55:46	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc2d835…
05-20 07:39:58	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf04f63…
05-20 07:38:44	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa7f959…
05-20 07:33:15	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe74998…
05-20 07:32:09	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa3f0bf…
05-20 07:32:07	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2587e6…
05-20 07:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xdcd75e…
05-20 07:28:12	Will NVIDIA say "Token" 20+ times during their next earnings call?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd53cb2…
05-19 17:15:54	Will the White House Press Secretary say "Mexico" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xd45724…
05-19 17:15:38	Will the White House Press Secretary say "Ceasefire" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x89b765…
05-19 17:13:08	Will NVIDIA say "Bubble" during their next earnings call?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x61fb7f…
05-19 15:33:26	Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xd9f355…
05-19 15:32:49	Will NVIDIA say "Bubble" during their next earnings call?	Yes	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x785125…
05-19 15:31:18	Will NVIDIA say "Open Source" during their next earnings call?	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x4ebf90…
05-19 13:42:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,726	6¢	$100	0x8b2ece…
05-16 11:30:57	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	19¢	$35	0x13291b…
05-15 21:02:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	133	99¢	$132	0xdf2849…
05-15 20:49:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x1cf8ce…