Substantial-Loading — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

59.5%

Resolved

443

Trades

2,235

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-12 09:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

69% 42% -$93

Tech

16% 53% +$106

Politics

7% 60% +$35

Crypto

6% 20% -$96

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$73

Sports

0% 0% -$27

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-12).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	06-12 09:19
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	-$5	4¢	$0	+$5	06-04 14:34
will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	+0	$0	3¢	$0	$0	06-09 21:48
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$2	2¢	$0	+$2	05-26 18:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	29	$244	426	426	+0	No	+$22	06-11 07:51
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	26	$202	209	209	+0	No	+$17	05-27 19:50
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	28	$167	233	233	+0	Yes	+$11	06-10 08:36
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	20	$152	213	213	+0	Yes	+$20	06-03 22:14
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	19	$150	159	159	+0	Yes	+$28	06-06 15:08
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	33	$139	408	183	+225	No	+$11	06-04 05:46
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	20	$126	196	196	+0	No	+$0	06-09 21:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	21	$124	256	256	+0	No	-$2	05-30 00:00
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?	12	$116	125	125	+0	Yes	+$24	06-03 22:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	13	$115	189	189	+0	Yes	+$14	06-10 15:51
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	15	$103	118	118	+0	cancelled	+$11	05-28 16:35
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?	9	$103	234	234	+0	Yes	+$38	06-05 22:07
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	11	$99	561	111	+450	Yes	+$22	05-28 16:43
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	11	$98	161	161	+0	No	+$8	06-11 01:48
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	10	$97	117	117	+0	No	+$25	06-10 20:14
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	10	$97	225	225	+0	No	+$18	06-11 07:51
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	2	$94	180	180	+0	Yes	+$76	05-18 09:53
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	11	$92	133	133	+0	Yes	+$2	06-11 07:51
will xauusd dip to 4200 in june 2026	17	$90	977	77	+900	Yes	-$8	06-10 00:44
will openais valuation hit high 875b by june 30	9	$89	107	107	+0	Yes	+$24	06-04 08:11
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	13	$88	101	65	+36	Yes	-$7	06-10 01:10
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	11	$87	122	122	+0	open	—	06-11 06:29
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	13	$83	9,092	92	+9,000	Yes	-$7	05-29 23:07
will xauusd reach 4800 in june 2026	8	$81	88	88	+0	No	+$12	06-04 00:28
will ukraine re enter kamianske by june 30	25	$80	128	128	+0	No	+$8	06-06 19:25
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	10	$79	140	140	+0	No	+$5	05-31 00:05
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	10	$78	109	109	+0	Yes	-$2	06-08 04:33
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	9	$77	83	83	+0	No	+$32	06-11 19:29
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?	13	$76	125	70	+55	Yes	+$6	05-14 12:00
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	10	$76	153	153	+0	Yes	+$14	06-11 09:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 09:20:07	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	186	0¢	$0	0x346bd1…
06-12 09:20:06	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x3034b7…
06-12 09:20:06	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0x025ace…
06-12 09:20:04	will arcium launch a token by september 30 2027	No	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x82ba0a…
06-12 09:20:03	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0x3f66fd…
06-12 09:20:03	Will Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x2fb673…
06-12 09:20:01	will papertrade launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	72	1¢	$1	0xba2cae…
06-12 09:20:01	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x13e06a…
06-12 09:20:00	Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0xc68d8f…
06-12 09:19:58	Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x8d77a1…
06-12 09:19:58	Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$1	0x4199b0…
06-12 09:19:57	Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x1171b9…
06-12 09:19:55	Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xcce8c1…
06-12 09:19:55	will papertrade launch a token by september 30 2027	No	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0xb2b67e…
06-12 09:19:54	will arcium launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0xedf6a0…
06-12 09:19:52	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	20¢	$3	0xc82b02…
06-12 09:19:52	Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	8¢	$2	0x11266e…
06-12 09:19:51	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	15¢	$4	0x98e974…
06-12 09:19:49	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	43	11¢	$5	0x5f1149…
06-12 09:19:49	Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x4af6f4…
06-12 09:19:48	Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	14¢	$5	0xde1f15…
06-12 09:19:46	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	68	9¢	$6	0xf34499…
06-12 09:19:46	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	33¢	$6	0x48570c…
06-12 09:19:45	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	13	52¢	$7	0x2b30ec…
06-12 09:19:43	fda approves ionis olezarsen 06 30 2026	No	SELL	64	8¢	$5	0xcac76d…
06-12 09:19:43	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	225	2¢	$5	0x23c0e0…
06-12 09:19:42	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xa6f874…
06-12 09:19:40	Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	40¢	$7	0xaec9a6…
06-12 09:19:37	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x523954…
06-12 09:19:37	Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0x181177…
06-12 09:19:36	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0x8b768e…
06-12 09:19:34	Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	23¢	$12	0xe4b0d2…
06-12 09:19:34	Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?	Yes	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0xb0657a…
06-12 09:19:33	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	41¢	$15	0x86d666…
06-12 09:12:25	Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x453585…
06-12 09:04:46	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0x1a36c3…
06-12 09:04:45	will papertrade launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x9a9fb2…
06-12 08:05:18	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	4¢	$3	0x7a9722…
06-12 07:25:45	will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by december 31	Yes	SELL	31	29¢	$9	0xaa6b09…
06-12 06:25:46	will canvas valuation hit low 37pt5b by june 30	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0x350d43…
06-12 05:33:03	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?	Yes	SELL	33	21¢	$7	0x9f19fa…
06-12 03:38:49	will arcium launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x87247a…
06-12 00:30:34	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x668726…
06-12 00:30:33	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x47024e…
06-12 00:30:33	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x1f8368…
06-12 00:30:31	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5a3fc4…
06-12 00:30:30	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x6028df…
06-11 23:23:04	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Yes	SELL	32	30¢	$10	0xb19ac7…
06-11 22:15:45	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x5ad1a6…
06-11 20:45:30	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0xfe731f…
06-11 20:08:57	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0xcf9537…
06-11 19:29:27	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x4aff7e…
06-11 18:07:24	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0xdad159…
06-11 17:52:37	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x48eb70…
06-11 17:47:07	Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?	Yes	SELL	31	34¢	$10	0x8c7ae3…
06-11 17:31:45	will cap launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	17	24¢	$4	0xe80b74…
06-11 16:43:49	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	82	5¢	$4	0x3e9cfb…
06-11 16:43:48	Megaquake by June 30?	Yes	SELL	70	6¢	$4	0x929a01…
06-11 16:43:48	will canvas valuation hit low 37pt5b by june 30	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x453a2a…
06-11 15:31:12	israeli forces enter tyre by june 7	Yes	SELL	112	7¢	$8	0xd3d83c…
06-11 15:01:49	la mayoral election spencer pratt receives overunder 25 20260607185950806	Under	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xa6e29d…
06-11 14:15:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0xc66785…
06-11 13:24:46	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xff1cc4…
06-11 12:50:31	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xe05920…
06-11 12:12:15	la mayoral election spencer pratt receives overunder 25 20260607185950806	Under	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0x910911…
06-11 12:04:25	will jp morgan jpm q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt85b	No	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x1dd854…
06-11 11:52:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	82	15¢	$12	0x9bf357…
06-11 10:38:33	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x465f15…
06-11 10:21:39	Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x6806b3…
06-11 09:46:12	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0x6c6129…
06-11 09:44:01	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	33¢	$8	0xb50a50…
06-11 09:44:01	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xa9f838…
06-11 09:44:01	Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	39	34¢	$13	0x6b5cdb…
06-11 09:44:01	hyperbeat fdv above 25m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x08428d…
06-11 09:44:00	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x5b6909…
06-11 09:44:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x2f9517…
06-11 09:44:00	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	32¢	$12	0x15ee9e…
06-11 09:09:36	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	SELL	79	11¢	$8	0x42b693…
06-11 08:57:25	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0xe573fd…
06-11 08:40:31	will next claude mythos debut on the text arena leaderboard at 1500	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0x73ee5d…
06-11 08:38:25	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xc9f7eb…
06-11 08:36:22	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0xe8803d…
06-11 08:28:24	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x074f0f…
06-11 07:59:12	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x672760…
06-11 07:53:27	Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	No	SELL	6	61¢	$3	0xef5271…
06-11 07:51:48	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	No	SELL	33	24¢	$8	0xa7607b…
06-11 07:51:46	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xe87af3…
06-11 07:51:46	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0xcbfbcf…
06-11 07:51:46	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0xbfc6b6…
06-11 07:51:46	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xaba65e…
06-11 07:51:46	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x957b37…
06-11 07:51:46	zcashs orchard pool confirmed exploited 20260605210804589	Yes	SELL	65	12¢	$8	0x90589e…
06-11 07:51:46	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	Yes	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0x6f116c…
06-11 07:51:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	27	16¢	$4	0x3e76da…
06-11 07:51:46	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	22	54¢	$12	0x2bc53c…
06-11 07:51:46	hyperbeat fdv above 25m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x1bbf03…
06-11 07:51:46	Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	56	8¢	$4	0x08c1d5…
06-11 07:51:45	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xed9b95…
06-11 07:51:45	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	112	14¢	$16	0xe51e91…
06-11 07:51:45	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	75	12¢	$9	0xdf8eaf…