Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$527
Trades
68
Unique wallets
17
Liquidity
$175
Latest YES mid
98¢
Latest NO mid
2¢
End date
2026-10-01
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-12 09:19
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $9 | $14 | $5 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $9 | $9 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $7 | $159 | $152 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $53 | $180 | $126 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $10 | $14 | $4 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $0 | $9 | $9 |
| Median | 1 | — | $8 | $8 |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | $29 | $27 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $4 | $119 | $115 |
| unranked | 4 | $52 | $183 | $130 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | +156 | $23 | $23 | 17 | 05-28 18:19 |
| dima23000 0xce71…d5f6 | No | +143 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 05-31 15:35 |
| Our-Mistake 0x966c…de7a | Yes | +130 | $29 | $29 | 4 | 05-31 15:35 |
| Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | +91 | $98 | $218 | 20 | 05-28 23:04 |
| Tricky-Family 0x2203…e5a1 | No | +36 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 05-28 23:04 |
| Adolescent-Guilty 0xa84f…bc44 | No | +35 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 05-29 14:31 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +32 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 05-31 15:35 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +21 | $14 | $14 | 3 | 06-08 21:55 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-12 09:19 |
| Woozy-Leptocephalus 0x8582…eb1d | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-08 21:55 |
| Lustrous-Unique 0x89e5…6f7a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 09:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +5 | $3 | $15 | 3 | 06-02 09:14 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-12 09:19 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 09:19:52 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | SELL | 23 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x11266e… |
| 06-12 09:19:52 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x11266e… |
| 06-12 09:19:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x11266e… |
| 06-08 21:55:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xc7ddb7… |
| 06-08 21:55:34 | Woozy-Leptocephalus 0x8582…eb1d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xc7ddb7… |
| 06-02 09:14:17 | Lustrous-Unique 0x89e5…6f7a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xd9b49b… |
| 06-02 09:14:17 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xd9b49b… |
| 05-31 15:35:55 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | BUY | 23 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x359442… |
| 05-31 15:35:55 | Our-Mistake 0x966c…de7a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 24¢ | $24 | 0x359442… |
| 05-31 15:35:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x359442… |
| 05-31 15:35:55 | dima23000 0xce71…d5f6 | No | BUY | 143 | 77¢ | $110 | 0x359442… |
| 05-29 14:31:31 | Adolescent-Guilty 0xa84f…bc44 | No | BUY | 22 | 72¢ | $16 | 0xfe1c4c… |
| 05-29 14:31:31 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | No | SELL | 14 | 72¢ | $10 | 0xfe1c4c… |
| 05-29 14:31:31 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xfe1c4c… |
| 05-29 14:31:19 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 30¢ | $4 | 0x197c12… |
| 05-29 14:31:19 | Adolescent-Guilty 0xa84f…bc44 | No | BUY | 12 | 70¢ | $9 | 0x197c12… |
| 05-29 03:53:40 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x2f3abf… |
| 05-29 03:53:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x2f3abf… |
| 05-29 00:24:01 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | SELL | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0xe23589… |
| 05-29 00:24:01 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0xe23589… |
| 05-29 00:23:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 13 | 63¢ | $8 | 0x9910fd… |
| 05-29 00:23:51 | Gracious-Cayenne 0x582a…7bb2 | No | SELL | 13 | 63¢ | $8 | 0x9910fd… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Gracious-Cayenne 0x582a…7bb2 | No | BUY | 13 | 62¢ | $8 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Shimmering-Contour 0xc474…d697 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 29¢ | $1 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Tricky-Family 0x2203…e5a1 | No | BUY | 36 | 60¢ | $22 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | No | BUY | 14 | 63¢ | $9 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | BUY | 11 | 61¢ | $7 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | SELL | 95 | 63¢ | $60 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 23:04:15 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xcec11b… |
| 05-28 18:19:32 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 4 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x703464… |
| 05-28 18:19:32 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 4 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x703464… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0xc2a1ac… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $9 | 0x8ea834… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x4653bd… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xc2a1ac… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x8ea834… |
| 05-28 18:19:30 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x4653bd… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0xfb04df… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xfb04df… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0xeed411… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x8b5e87… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xef4d67… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 6 | 85¢ | $5 | 0xc5510f… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x781bf4… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0xef4d67… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xeed411… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x781bf4… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x8b5e87… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x8cd700… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x8cd700… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xc5510f… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xcbea72… |
| 05-28 18:19:28 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 6 | 85¢ | $5 | 0xcbea72… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x14d1dc… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xf4c310… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x55cf4b… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x14d1dc… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Our-Mistake 0x966c…de7a | Yes | BUY | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xf4c310… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xcd01e9… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 4 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xf4c310… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Inexperienced-Tail 0x4d2f…61ee | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x3de6f6… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x3de6f6… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xad657e… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x55cf4b… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0xcd01e9… |
| 05-28 18:19:26 | Our-Mistake 0x966c…de7a | Yes | BUY | 11 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xad657e… |
| 05-28 18:19:25 | Shimmering-Harmonize-Netball 0x3803…7eaf | No | BUY | 11 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xa2c954… |
| 05-28 18:19:25 | Our-Mistake 0x966c…de7a | Yes | BUY | 11 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xa2c954… |