Fake-Guard 0x6ffb43…46a834 Create alert
whale hot
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Realized P&L
+$242.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$76.8K
Hit rate
92.6%
Resolved
3,268
Trades
20,377
lifetime
Volume
$20.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.00K
Open exposure
$14.8K
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 19:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 297 days
Categories
Other
48% 86% +$181,448
Politics
34% 86% +$165,538
Crypto
12% 72% -$112,168
Sports
6% 90% +$7,258
Tech
0% 68% +$582
Pop-Culture
0% 95% +$73
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 138 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +64,208 $78,859 4¢ $2.3K -$76,515 08-19 21:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +2,555 $332 88¢ $2.3K +$1,929 06-22 01:58
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,950 $25 84¢ $1.6K +$1,622 06-30 15:07
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +7,778 $2,108 20¢ $1.6K -$513 11-01 19:23
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +6,223 $1,725 20¢ $1.3K -$449 11-01 19:29
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +2,123 $872 54¢ $1.1K +$264 10-28 00:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +4,200 $1,038 22¢ $945 -$93 10-30 21:31
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +2,000 $720 24¢ $490 -$230 10-25 13:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +7,777 $700 4¢ $350 -$350 07-15 10:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +2,000 $320 16¢ $330 +$10 07-09 15:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,000 -$150 32¢ $315 +$465 10-28 03:21
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,950 $1,728 16¢ $302 -$1,425 06-30 15:03
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $330 30¢ $295 -$35 10-31 02:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +2,000 $320 13¢ $260 -$60 10-16 19:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +2,055 $598 12¢ $236 -$362 09-22 14:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,400 $280 12¢ $175 -$105 10-22 00:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +5,556 $549 3¢ $175 -$374 09-16 02:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +3,000 $240 6¢ $165 -$75 10-24 11:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +2,000 $319 7¢ $137 -$182 09-28 17:14
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,232 $123 8¢ $92 -$31 10-29 14:24
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +100 $53 82¢ $81 +$28 08-27 16:42
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +258 $141 27¢ $69 -$72 10-16 17:55
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Yes +876 $104 4¢ $32 -$72 09-08 17:21
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10,000 $100 0¢ $20 -$80 06-19 09:18
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes +274 $22 6¢ $16 -$5 10-29 14:23
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No +126 $24 7¢ $8 -$16 05-09 18:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +947 $105 1¢ $7 -$98 10-29 21:39
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +51 $2 3¢ $2 -$1 08-30 21:46
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +0 -$46 2¢ $0 +$46 04-29 14:53