Realized P&L
+$22.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$3.68K
Hit rate
87.9%
Resolved
184
Trades
2,191
lifetime
Volume
$745.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$340
Open exposure
$71.4K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 05:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 87 days
Categories
Other
74% 71% +$27,355
Politics
25% 63% -$4,861
Tech
0% 50% +$58
Crypto
0% — —
Sports
0% 100% +$338
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +51,686 $45,940 94¢ $48.6K +$2,646 10-23 20:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +8,000 $7,165 94¢ $7.5K +$315 10-16 20:44
US recession by end of 2026? No +4,599 $3,991 92¢ $4.3K +$264 10-24 02:01
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +1,500 $1,285 98¢ $1.5K +$178 10-16 03:52
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +1,669 $1,444 78¢ $1.3K -$150 10-22 20:02
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -1,300 -$1,243 98¢ $-1268 -$25 07-27 09:41
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No -1,100 -$1,065 97¢ $-1071 -$7 10-26 05:46
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +1,153 $765 76¢ $870 +$105 10-16 04:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,000 $735 82¢ $815 +$80 07-30 06:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +500 $470 100¢ $498 +$28 09-22 06:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +500 $430 98¢ $488 +$58 10-20 14:39
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +500 $477 96¢ $482 +$5 09-18 20:39
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +500 $479 96¢ $478 -$1 09-18 20:40
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +500 $465 94¢ $472 +$8 10-09 20:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +500 $470 94¢ $470 +$0 10-20 16:47
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +500 $470 94¢ $468 -$2 09-18 20:39
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +500 $422 86¢ $429 +$6 09-18 20:40
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No +270 $237 99¢ $266 +$29 07-22 15:05
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No -240 -$238 99¢ $-236 +$1 09-11 14:45
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -2,723 -$124 0¢ $-4 +$120 09-18 07:03
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -1,390 -$55 0¢ $-3 +$51 09-18 07:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +0 $30 22¢ $0 -$30 10-16 17:13